"Republican Candidate" Extends Lead vs. Obama to 47% to 39%

[The_Tyrant]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148487/Republican-Candidate-Extends-Lead-Obama.aspx

Spoiler :

Obama Trailing Among Independent Voters

Independent registered voters are currently more likely to vote for the Republican candidate (44%) than for Obama (34%), though one in five do not have an opinion. Republicans and Democrats show strong party loyalty in their vote choices, with Republicans showing somewhat stronger loyalty.



Independents' preferences are similar to what Gallup measured last month, while Republicans' support for the Republican candidate has increased slightly.

Implications

President Obama's re-election prospects do not look very favorable at this point -- if the election were held today, as measured by the generic presidential ballot. However, that result does not necessarily mean he is likely to be denied a second term in November 2012. At this point in 1991, George H.W. Bush looked like a sure bet to win a second term, but he was defeated.

One key factor in determining Obama's eventual electoral fate is whom the Republican Party nominates as its presidential candidate and the appeal that person has compared with Obama. Mitt Romney is the presumptive front-runner, but Americans have generally not held very positive opinions of him the last few years.

The state of the nation will also influence whether Obama is elected to a second term. Right now, Americans are especially dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country, and economic confidence is lagging.

However, the political environment can certainly change in the 16 months leading up to the election, something that occurred during the 1984 and 1996 election cycles (in the incumbent's favor) and 1992 cycle (in the opponent's favor) when incumbent presidents were seeking re-election.

Looks like Republicans are maintaining their advantage with independents (which played a big factor in the 2010 midterm Republican sweep).

 

[Formaldehyde]

Now if the Republicans can only find an imaginary generic candidate who isn't nearly as bad as any of the existing ones.

Mitt Romney is the presumptive front-runner, but Americans have generally not held very positive opinions of him the last few years.

That is, given that these "independents" actually exist, of course:

The Myth of the US independent Voter

Have we ever had pollsters prognosticating about how imaginary candidates would do against current presidents before? Or is this a new thing with Obama?

 

[The_Tyrant]

Now if the Republicans can only find an imaginary generic candidate who isn't nearly as bad as any of the existing ones.

The research question was not "would you vote for a generic Republican over Obama?"
but "would you support any Republican candidate over Obama?"

 

[warpus]

Now if the Republicans can only find an imaginary generic candidate who isn't nearly as bad as any of the existing ones.

What's wrong with Mitt Romney?

All the other republican candidates seem crazy compared to him.. Having said that, I don't really know too much about the guy

 

[Ajidica]

The research question was not "would you vote for a generic Republican over Obama?"
but "would you support any Republican candidate over Obama?"

To be specific, the question is: "Thinking about the presidential election in November 2012, are you more likely to vote for Obama or for the Republican Party's predidential candidate?"
That means they capture the yes vote of everyone from right leaning centrists to crazy people. If Bachmann gets the nomination, the centrists will flee. If Romney gets the nomination and tacks to the center, the far right will probably have an identy crisis and nominate a different candidate.

If anything, this poll makes Obama look good. In a country with deep economic issues and our culture of 'vote out the incumbent' when things aren't smooth sailing, running at 39% as a relatively divisive politician against an amorphous Republican who is all things to all people is pretty good.

 

[madviking]

Eh, this excitement is probably not going to last until November 2012. Even if it does, apathy will still win the general election.

 

[tycoonist]

Yeah, thing is that as soon as the Republican Nominee gets to talking, everyone's gonna just be like "oh wait, s/he's a total fool". At the moment, they're flying low enough that the independent voters don't care about them.

 

[Cutlass]

What's wrong with Mitt Romney?

All the other republican candidates seem crazy compared to him.. Having said that, I don't really know too much about the guy

The biggest problem with Romney is that he has no demonstrated convictions except to change to be whatever he thinks he needs to be to win.

 

[Formaldehyde]

Regarding Obama against actual Republican candidates:

Obama Ahead of Potential Republican Candidates

Mr. Obama also got some good news in the survey when he was matched up with potential Republican presidential candidates next year.

Brown says the president holds a small lead over the current Republican frontrunner, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. The poll also found that Mr. Obama has a larger advantage over Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and two other potential candidates, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and Texas Governor Rick Perry.

“Mr. Obama remains ahead and it is always better to be ahead than behind. He is ahead of Mr. Romney by six points, which is what he was when Quinnipiac surveyed in June. He is ahead by double-digits over Mr. Perry, Ms. Bachmann and Ms. Palin,” Brown said.

And regarding Romney:

1994 Senate ad resurrected against Romney

As Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney traveled around New Hampshire today emphasizing his business credentials, a previously unseen television ad threatened to undermine them.

The 17-year-old ad, first provided to Politico, argued that Romney’s former employer, Bain & Co., received a form of a federal bailout when it teetered on the brink of failure.

“Romney, he and others made $4 million in this deal which cost ordinary people $10 million,” the ad states.

The fireworks haven't even started yet.

 

[GenMarshall]

It's too early to start putting all your eggs in one basket. Things could happen between now and Nov 2012. If a SANE MODERATE Republican runs, especially if the candidate promises to bring back jobs and lower the unemployment, I would be more likely to vote for a Republican. Unless if the canidate is a right wing nut job like Bush (for example) or Palin, I'd vote Obama in a heartbeat.

 

[JtheJackal]

Yeah, thing is that as soon as the Republican Nominee gets to talking, everyone's gonna just be like "oh wait, s/he's a total fool". At the moment, they're flying low enough that the independent voters don't care about them.

But aren't generic Republicans talking enough already? The way the party is handling the debt ceiling issue is just another reason why that whole party is practically unelectable and yet you get polls like this.

 

[The_Tyrant]

2010 midterm election: Main focus - the economy, out of control spending and entitlements.
Result - Republican landslide

2012 presidential election: Main focus - the economy, out of control spending and entitlements
Result - what do you think?

Eh, this excitement is probably not going to last until November 2012. Even if it does, apathy will still win the general election.

The grass roots (Tea Party) excitement may not last if Romney wins the nomination, but high unemployment will last, and the simple truth is the large majority of Americans disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy and would rather place their trust with a Republican candidate.

Unless if the canidate is a right wing nut job like Bush (for example) or Palin, I'd vote Obama in a heartbeat.

Bush is a RINO (see illegal immigration)

 

[Cutlass]

But aren't generic Republicans talking enough already? The way the party is handling the debt ceiling issue is just another reason why that whole party is practically unelectable and yet you get polls like this.

The problem with that statement is that the Republicans are actually quite good at making a substantial part of the public think that their actions are the Democrats fault. So you can't be certain that this will hurt the Republicans more than the Democrats.

 

[emzie]

Faceless Republican Candidate / Pawlenty '12

 

[Ajidica]

2010 midterm election: Main focus - the economy, out of control spending and entitlements.
Result - Republican landslide

2012 presidential election: Main focus - the economy, out of control spending and entitlements
Result - what do you think?

You missed the following segment:

'10-'12: Republicans elected in 2010 landslide demonstrate they are woefully ignorant of basic economics as they send the nation hurtling toward default. Republican presidential candidates aren't much better.

 

[FriendlyFire]

The research question was not "would you vote for a generic Republican over Obama?"
but "would you support any Republican candidate over Obama?"

The GOP ....... what can one say at a time like this

Poll: Public Would Blame GOP In Event Of Default

the public from getting ready to place blame should a debt ceiling agreement not be reached in time.

A plurality of registered voters said congressional Republicans are to blame in the event the debt ceiling is not raised in a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University from July 5-11.

When asked to whom they would assign responsibility should the limit not be raised, 48 percent of respondents chose the congressional Republicans; 34 percent said they would blame the Obama administration.

 

[MobBoss]

The GOP ....... what can one say at a time like this

After Obama's outburst yesterday I'm not so sure that might not flip around. Telling the GOP 'you dont want to call my bluff' to me says this whole issue is a result of Obama's 'my way or the highway' thinking that has been the norm of his entire time in office. In that case, how can it not be his fault? Again, he is the President, and ultimately will shoulder the blame for this if it does indeed go down.

 

[useless]

Obama Versus:

Crazy Homophobic woman
Mormon Moderate
Who?
Newt
and other people

 

[emzie]

After Obama's outburst yesterday I'm not so sure that might not flip around. Telling the GOP 'you dont want to call my bluff' to me says this whole issue is a result of Obama's 'my way or the highway' thinking that has been the norm of his entire time in office. In that case, how can it not be his fault? Again, he is the President, and ultimately will shoulder the blame for this if it does indeed go down.

When Canter says their concession is merely having negotiations, or Boehner says tax hikes are off the table, there are no negotiations happening.

 

[GenMarshall]

Telling the GOP 'you dont want to call my bluff' to me says this whole issue is a result of Obama's 'my way or the highway' thinking that has been the norm of his entire time in office.

After dealing with the party of "NO" and remarks of "YOU LIE!!!!". I'm not suppressed that Obama has to knock a couple heads around.