Preflight:
I'm going to be as straightforward as possible here, don't take any of it personally!
First and most important, there is no reason at all for the worker to be where it is. Someone noted this earlier, but it bears repeating. The two most important tiles in our empire right now are the two wheat tiles, they are vital to get a settler factory going. The worker should be developing those before all else. Further, Leipzig would have to grow to at least size 5 or 6 before ever using the tile that worker was on. The time will soon come where we'll have a settler factory in place there; I'll wait until later to explain it more clearly, but once we have a granary even close to up and running, if you don't know how a settler factory works, ASK!!!!
Second, we discussed before the turnset moving a spear through Dutch territory to find out if we are in fact on an island. No such movement took place. That's a vital thing to have done, because our decisions about what wonder to build and what research to make depend on what we find! I won't be able to do this before the turnset is done (probably), but I start a spear moving out of Berlin to hopefully figure that out soon. He arrives on our mountain via the road and will head due south from there.
Third, there is very little need to attack lone units out in the open, especially one standing on a hill (as was the one at Leipzig). Even a lowly warrior has a defense of 1.5 standing on a hill, which means our 2 attack archer has a 57% (2/(2+1.5)) chance on each shot. In short, it has a very decent chance of losing. That same warrior has roughly a 25-ish percent chance of nicking one of our fortified spears (can't remember what the fortify bonus is, 25%?). In short: very early in the game, let the warriors attack our cities. They'll die much faster that way than they will by us attacking them, and we'll lose fewer units in the interim.
I change the build in Berlin to a spear, due in 4 turns, to replace the one that left to head south.
I change the build in Leipzig to a worker, nominally due in 8 turns right now, in order to get that town developed as fast as possible.
The science slider could go from 90% to 80% (which would yield us +1 gpt) and still get Alphabet in 6 turns, but I do not do this, because I anticipate Berlin will grow in 2 turns and the extra commerce will be enough to shave the time to 5 turns. Right now CivAssist 2 says we are making 9 bpt at 90%, Alphabet due in 6, with an end waste of 7 beakers. That means two more beakers over the next 5 turns will be enough. As Berlin grows in 2 turns, that won't be a problem.
As it's pretty risk-free, I move our Copernicus from Berlin out to the northeast, confirming that the land does in fact stop there. He'll head home next turn.
I hit Enter.
IBT: Nothing happens.
2110 BC (1): I move the 1/5 archer back into Leipzig. I swap Leipzig's worked tile to a roaded BG; unfortuately this costs us one commerce per turn (one more reason to keep the science slider high until the last couple turns!). Oh well. Copernicus heads along the coast to fully explore there; our spear moves south. Worker moves into Leipzig.
2070 BC (2): Archer holds in Leipzig. Worker begins irrigating our wheat. Spear heads south.
2030 BC (3): Copernicus explores our north coast; spear heads south.
1990 BC (4): Berlin spear-spear. Leipzig works the other wheat instead of the BG, it will still finish a worker next turn. Archer is fully healed in Leipzig, and will stay there, because there's no need to send it out unescorted. We now have nine units, which results in a 1 gpt maintenance cost (we can support 8 units), which gives me pause about this worker, but I think it must be done. It may be worth spinning off a settler next. This hurts us long term, but short term it's needed. I reduce science to 70%, Alphabet still due in 2 turns. We need 12 beakers over the next two turns. Hopefully no more than that!
1950 BC (5): Leipzig worker-settler (this won't finish on this turnset and can be changed if desired). He moves out and finishes irrigating the wheat tile, freeing our first worker, who starts mining the BG immediately north of Leipzig. The final turn of Alphabet comes at 40%.
1910 BC (6): Alphabet is in; Pottery is in 6 turns at 70% and +0 gpt (we have 10 gold in the bank). I could do it in 5 turns at the cost of all our gold, but that seems pointless. Our spear encounters a warrior in Dutch territory (I misstepped last turn, so unfortunately he's not on a mountain, but he is in forest at least.)
IBT: The warrior does not attack; an archer approaches our spear. The Dutch found Utrecht in the desert S-S-S-S-SE of Berlin, which may well indicate some useful resource (saltpeter?) there. So we got that going for us.
1870 BC (7): Our spear sidesteps onto the mountain, revealing Amsterdam, in a pretty motley-looking spot. If their archer wants to attack us on a mountain, he's welcome to it.
IBT: He didn't.
1830 BC (8): Berlin spear-archer. I leave Berlin growing a bit faster and at 5 shields per turn (working a river grassland). The alternative is to switch to a forest and get 7 spt (good for 3 turn archers/spears), but allowing it to grow faster gets us closer to 10 spt a bit later, and keeps us from having too much trouble with unit support. As it is we're now losing 1 gpt at the present rate, which gets us the treasury warning.
Our spear continues south; the Dutch do have wines on a hill next to Amsterdam. Luxuries will not be a big problem.
The new spear moves toward Leipzig, and I move our archer off the mountain, planning to put the warrior there next turn as our lookout. Both cities will then have two spears and one archer for defense.
IBT: Another archer moves north out of Amsterdam; hopefully they come at us ninja movie style.
1790 BC (9): Leipzig grows; switch from forest to the BG that is in the process of being mined. Maintaining growth there is critical, though not at the cost of ALL production.
Spear moves onto another mountain; Dutch have THREE wine hills, the lucky bastards. The land also seems to widen a bit.
1750 BC (10): Our worker finishes roading the other wheat; it moves to complete the mine at Leipzig. The first worker goes back to mine the second wheat tile.
Our spear continues south. He's on a mined wine hill; probably worth the time to pillage this next turn before heading south. That should annoy some Dutch workers and slow Dutch development.
All units that ought to move this turn, have done so.
I'd expect a Dutch archer or two in probably 2-4 turns if my math is right. It may not be though!
The known world:
Military update:
1 vWarrior
2 archers (1 elite, 1 veteran)
5 spears (4 veteran, 1 regular)
2 workers
1 Copernicus.
City update:
Berlin: size 3, +2 fpt, 14/20 food, archer in production, due in 2 turns, 5 spt, 10/20 shields in.
Leipzig: size 2, +4 fpt, 4/20 food, settler in production, due in 8 turns, 3 spt, 8/30 shields in.
Research: Pottery, due in 2 turns at 70%. We need all 16 commerce that will go to science over the next two turns. After Pottery, I would strongly recommend Masonry as a research point even if we decide we want the Great Library, if only because we will want Walls in our cities. We will need to play a fair bit of defense for a while, especially with no iron in sight, but a nice archer rush (Berlin should build about four more archers, and then accompany them with a spear south) should whittle the Dutch down to size. I would recommend going straight for Amsterdam and playing whack-a-capital for a little while.
Cities/workers: After its current settler, Leipzig should start a granary. It may even be worth swapping to a granary now, but I think we need the third town for production and unit support. Chopping two forests (marked X on the city dotmap) will speed it up. Chopping the OTHER forests won't do any good, as they will go to Berlin. After the workers finish mining the wheat tile (the second one should move there next turn and help, though it does waste one worker turn; want to finish that tile before the Dutch arrive), I would split them up and move one of them onto each of those two tiles to begin chopping. Timing wise, make sure the settler will finish BEFORE the forests are chopped, of course, but I think this should be a non issue. That will get us a good head start on the desperately-needed granary.
After that the workers should road to our third city, and hook up the luxury after roading the two BGs that are just north of Leipzig's current borders. We don't need the luxury immediately, but they should head in that direction. Roading and mining the BGs should be a more immediate concern. After that, they should return to Berlin and road/mine one river grassland tile. The reason for this is explained below.
Berlin, meanwhile, should probably stay on archers for a while. We COULD build a settler here, and maybe that's the right play, but I think taking a run at the Dutch with archers might be useful. After its current archer, I would probably swap the grassland tile to a river forest tile. That will delay Berlin's growth by one turn, but that's okay. We want Berlin at size 4, not size 5, until the luxury hookup is in sight. At size 4, Berlin should work the two powered tiles, one forest, and one grassland, for 7 shields per turn and +1 fpt growth. Be careful to check that this is right when Berlin grows to size 4. If my math is right Berlin should hit size 5 in 23 turns if we follow this plan. That should be enough time for the workers to have roaded up the luxury. Once we're up to size 5, Berlin can work the two mined BGs, one mined grassland, and two forests to give 10 shields per turn, which is a magic number for us (and in most Civ games) since it lets us build an archer or spear in two turns. That's vitally important.
Exploring spear: Keep heading south, but pick a coast (right now the east coast is easier) I'd say. Pillaging around Amsterdam's hill wine tiles may be a smart move too, it's a potentially very productive town, though not while it's size 1.
Dotmap: I've prepared one more since we know a wee bit more of our coastline. I think expanding toward the Dutch may be a bit beyond our means right this second. I'd recommend red dot, then orange, then yellow for maximum safety and production value. Orange isn't immediately all that useful, though it can work forests and be semi productive until we can build a temple or library (better the library) for culture which will capture both the whale tiles. Those are nice tiles...eventually.
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