SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

[DanF5771]

Alt Plan for PigsGems

T72-T76 work granary (adding pigs T75) (Fritz puts a chop (forest 2N1E of PigsGems) into granary T75 and Karl puts a chop (forest 1S of PigsGems) into granary T76)
T77 granary finishes, put OF into Workboat (working pigs and gems, getting full value out of granary)
T80 grows to pop 3 and can whip workboat (significant OF can go to partial axe build in queue)

We chop 2 pre-math forests and don't get the workboat as early as we could, but we get the granary significantly faster which translates to at least 12 more food, plus gives us good whipping options there.

hmmm ... that gives us the WB T81, rather late to scout out Hammu's units. Also we can probably get Sailing from Toku 2 turns later via peace deal and start a Trireme (2pop-whip?). So I think if we decide to build a WB I'd vote to get it out ealier.

 

[bcool]

We could whip the WB on T77 (by putting a turn on the WB instead of the granary on T72 or T73), but that means we are whipping off the population working the pigs or the gems without a granary.

The plan to build a granary in PigsGems first is significantly more resource efficient. How important is a workboat 4 to 5 turns earlier? What is the knowledge of his stack really going to change? I think if we put 3 axes into that forest near DeerGold that should stop him, if not we would have time to whip at least 1 more in DeerGold.

 

[WastinTime]

Seeing his stack with a WB is nice, but I'm more interested in seeing what lies beyond Hammu. Will he have a galley to kill our WB? or can we sail thru?

 

[shulec]

Seeing his stack with a WB is nice, but I'm more interested in seeing what lies beyond Hammu. Will he have a galley to kill our WB? or can we sail thru?

I have a feeling that a workboat will get quickly destroyed. I like a trireme once we get sailing.

 

[mabraham]

I have a feeling that a workboat will get quickly destroyed. I like a trireme once we get sailing.

I agree that a workboat is not much use as a Hammu scout - I'd much rather scout the island to our west for possible 2 city sites and/or routes to other AIs, possibly staying alive to plant on some seafood later. Accordingly, I'd rather not whip off pigs or gems to get such a WB.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

I agree that completing Granary in PigsGems first is a vast improvement. I must agree with shulec that we are better off starting a Trireme in PigsGems. We can go back to the original Research path of Fishing -> Sailing -> Writing and start a Trireme right after the Granary. (We can allow the 4H in Axeman decay.) When PigsGems reaches 4P, we can whip the Trireme or better yet just complete it organically as PigsGems rapidly grows and works several GH Mines.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Notes:

Turn 71 went 100% according to plan (SheepTown is now Safe provided we reinforce it with two Axemen on t72 and t73).

Delhi will be banking hammers into The Pyramids on t73, t75-t79 (end of the turn set).

This PPP incorporates suggested changes by DanF5771 and mabrahams with the exception of Research path; if the team really wants Writing -> Mathematics, I will put that in instead.

A major part of the original t72-t79 is based on an earlier post from bcool with some great suggestions. Thanks!

Changes are in DarkRed:

PigsGems builds Garnary first and later Work Boat.

Research:

t72: Res 100% Fishing at 39 Bpt and -18 Wpt.
t73: Res 100% Fishing at 39 Bpt and -18 Wpt.
t74: Res 50% Fishing at 19 Bpt and 0 Wpt.
t75: Res 00% Sailing at 0 Bpt and +19 Wpt.
t76: Res 80% Sailing at 36 Bpt and -12 Wpt.
t77: Res 50% Sailing at 23 Bpt and +4 Wpt.
t78: Res 100% Writing at 48 Bpt and -20 Wpt.
t79: Res 00% Writing at 0 Bpt and +28 Wpt.
t80: Res 100% Writing at 48 Bpt and -19 Wpt.

Cities:

Delhi:

t72: 6F, 4FC1 2F4H1C, 3F1C, 1F3H: continue Forge.
t72: 1-N Fast Worker (Hoover) -> 1-W and builds Road on GH Mine.
t72: 1-N Fast Worker (Karl) -> 1-W and builds Road on GH Mine.
t72: 3-SE Fast Worker (Eiffel) -> 2-NW and preChops RS GF for 1t (then cancel).
t72: 2-SE Axeman -> 2-E.
xfer: 2-SE Axeman to SheepTown region.

t73: 6F, 4FC1 2F4H1C, 3F1C, 1F3H: Start The Pyramids.
t73: 1-NW Fast Worker (Hoover) -> 1-S+2-W and preChops RS GF for 1t (then cancel).
t73: 1-NW Fast Worker (Karl) -> 1-S+2-W and preChops RS GF for 1t (then cancel).
xfer: 1-NW Fast Worker (Hoover) to PigsGems region.
xfer: 1-NW Fast Worker (Karl) to PigsGems City region.
t73: 1-SE Fast Worker (Eiffel) -> 2-W and preChops GF.

t74: 6F, 4FC1 2F4H1C: 3P whip Forge.

t75: 6F, 4FC1 2F4H1C, 1F3H: Start Settler (gains 57H = 40H in overflow, 7 excess Food and 10 Hpt).
t75: 1-SW Fast Worker (Eiffel) -> 2-E and preChops RS GF for 1t (completing the preChop).

t76: 6F, 4FC1 2F4H1C, 3F1C: Resume The Pyramids.
t76: 1-SE Fast Worker (Eiffel) -> 1-S+2-E and Mines GH for 1t (then cancel).
xfer: : 1-SE Fast Worker (Eiffel) to CowTown region.
t76: 1-SE Axeman -> 2-NW.

t77: 6F, 4FC1 2F4H1C, 3F1C, 1F3H: Continue The Pyramids.
t77: 1-NW Axeman -> 2-NW.

t78: 3-NW Axeman -> Forest choke point versus Hammuragawa's SoD.

t80: 6F, 4FC1 2F4H1C, 3F1C, 2 x 1F3H: Continue The Pyramids.

DeerGold City:

t72: 5F1H, 3H8C: Interrupt Axeman; Resume and 1 Pop whip Granary.
t72: 2-S Fast Worker (Fritz) -> 1-SE and build Road on GH (2t).
t72: 1-N+2-W Warrior -> 1-NW (Sign post "chokepoint").
t72: 3-NW Warrior -> 1-NW (then can choose from 2 Forests to enter Hammurabi's Culture).

t73: 5F1H, 3H8C: Start Barracks.
t73: 4-NW Warrior -> 1-NW, 1-W (if blocked) or retreat 1-SE; remainder of this unit's turn set determined by the player.

t74: 5F1H, 3H8C: Continue Barracks
t74: 2-N+3-W Warrior sentry duty remainder of turn set or determined by the player.
t74: 3-S+1-E Fast Worker (Fritz) -> 1-N and Chop Forest into PigsGems (1t+3t).

t78: 2-S+1-E Fast Worker (Fritz) -> 1-W and build Road on RS G Farm (2t).

t78: 5F1H, 3H8C, 3F1C: Continue Barracks.

t80: 2-S Fast Worker (Fritz) -> 1-NW and build Road on RS GH (2t).
t80: 5F1H, 3H8C, 3F1C: Resume Axeman.

SheepTown:

t72: 5F2C: Start Granary
t72: 1-N+2-W Axeman -> 1-S+2-W into SheepTown.
t72: 4 Axemen fortify (C1Med1 10% F, 3 x NP 5% F).
t72: 3-W Fast Worker -> 2-N+1-E and builds Mine 4t.

t73: 1-N+2-W Axeman -> 1-S+2-W into SheepTown.
t73: 5 Axemen fortify (C1Med1 15% F, 3 x NP 10% F, NP).

t74: Axemen kill 1-2 survivors of Tokugawa's attack, using at most 2 Axeman for "suicide/damage" attacks or more by player judgement there's no risk of losing SheepTown; try to gain a total of 5 XP with each counter attack.
t74: other Axemen heal until fully recovered.
t74: 1 Axeman -> CowTown to attack pesky enemy Scouts that land on Deer Camp or any plot in range.
t74: 1 Axeman (highest XP) -> Forest choke point versus Hammuragawa's SoD.

t75: Axemen on Gold Mine -> City to heal.

t76: 5F2C, 3H8C: Continue Granary.

CowTown:

t72: 4F2H: continue Axeman to completion in 2t.

t74: 4F2H, 4F2H: Start Granary.
t74: Axeman -> 1-SW.

t75: 1-SW Axeman -> 2-W.
xfer: 1-SW Axeman to Delhi region.

t77: 2-S+1-W Fast Worker (Eiffel) -> 1-NE and Mines GH for 4t (completing it).
t78: 4F2H, 4F2H, 2F1H: Continue Granary.

PigsGems:

t72: 2F1H7C: Resume Granary.

t74: 1-SW Fast Worker (Hoover) -> 1-NW and builds Pasture on GH Pig for 2t.
t74: 1-SW Fast Worker (Karl) -> 1-NW and builds Pasture on GH Pig for 2t.

t75: 5F1H, 2F1H7C: Continue Granary.

t76: 2-W Fast Worker (Hoover) -> builds Road on GH Pig Pasture for 2t.
t76: 2-W Fast Worker (Karl) -> 1-SE and Chops RS GF into Granary.

t77: 1-SW Fast Worker (Karl) -> builds Farm on RS G (5t).

t78: 5F1H, 2F1H7C, 3F1C: Start Trireme.
t78: 1-NW Fast Worker (Hoover) -> 1-SE and builds Farm on RS G (2t), joining Karl's efforts to effect same.

Final Notes:

Please let me know the changes you would like. I'd like to play the first the full 8t ASAP.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

t72-t79 PPP Rev 3 has more changes in it than I expected, but I'd still like to play the full 8t out yet this evening. Please let me know whether this is acceptable.

I'd like to start playing in about 1.5 hours of the time stamp of the "t72-t79 PPP Rev 3" post.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[shulec]

PPP good. Play tonight.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Thanks for your support shulec, but I probably should not complete my turn set until we have more of a consensus for doing so.

However, the next 2t (t72-t73) do not have any controversial changes, so I will start playing those at least. While I do so, maybe we will "gather" more of a consensus on whether I should go further than that or not.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[mabraham]

PPP looks good. I don't mind whether PigGems starts WB or trireme on T78. Either serves our strategic purposes, just in different ways. WB scouts island, trireme scouts Hammu. I'm happy bee-lining Sailing on the assumption that we aren't going to ready for starting libraries any time soon. Once we have Writing, it'll probably be right to start and whip the library in Delhi, before going back to growing on Pyramids.

 

[mabraham]

Thanks for your support shulec, but I probably should not complete my turn set until we have more of a consensus for doing so.

However, the next 2t (t72-t73) do not have any controversial changes, so I will start playing those at least. While I do so, maybe we will "gather" more of a consensus on whether I should go further than that or not.

Sun Tzu Wu

Play as much as looks reasonable. Stop on the usual sorts of unexpected events. We can't micro every decision by committee while at war.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

PPP looks good. I don't mind whether PigGems starts WB or trireme on T78. Either serves our strategic purposes, just in different ways. WB scouts island, trireme scouts Hammu. I'm happy bee-lining Sailing on the assumption that we aren't going to ready for starting libraries any time soon. Once we have Writing, it'll probably be right to start and whip the library in Delhi, before going back to growing on Pyramids.

Thanks for your response.

I did modify the PPP to start the Trireme on t81, because the Granary can't be finished until t80, despite two 20H forest chops. We do complete Sailing in time for a Trireme on t78, but its probably more important to complete the Granary first.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

t74 progress report:

Completed Fishing.

Tokugawa has one unit in our Culture: Axeman C1CR1 at 1-S of SheepTown heading SE. 2-SE of that Axeman is a Spearman C2 that came out of the fog.

SheepTown defenders:

Axeman C1Med1 5.0 6/10 XP 25% F
Axeman NP 3.8 1/2 XP 15% F
Axeman NP 5.0 0/2 XP 15% F
Axeman NP 4.1 3/2 XP 05% F
Axeman NP 5.0 0/2 XP 00% F
Axeman NP 5.0 0/2 XP 15% F

Do we press our luck attacking the Axeman with any of our healthy Axemen?

We can now see Tokyo!

I'm planning to Upload the current save to the SGOTM server.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[WastinTime]

fantastic! Attack Osaka!!

 

[mabraham]

Loading save, feedback soon.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

SGOTM-15 Upload Log:

Spoiler :

Reference number: 11585
Game: C-IV SGOTM 15
Your team: Kakumeika
Your name: Sun Tzu Wu
Date submitted: 2012-03-21
Software Version: BtS 3.19
Game date: 1040BC
Player race: India
Firaxis score: 276
Session time played (hh:mm:ss): 00:25:59
Total time played (hh:mm:ss): 11:30:35
Game status: Incomplete
Submitted save: Kakumeika_SG015_BC1120_01-First-Turn-Set-4-of-10t-REAL-GAME-0074-BC-1040-Start-of-Turn+Upload-to-Server.CivBeyondSwordSave
Renamed file: Kakumeika_SG015_BC1040_01.CivBeyondSwordSave

Right click the Renamed File link above to copy it.
You can then paste it into your team post as the download link for the next player.


Here is your Session Turn Log from 1120 BC to 1040 BC:

Turn 72, 1120 BC: The enemy has been spotted near SheepTown!
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Delhi has grown to size 5.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The borders of SheepTown are about to expand.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The borders of PigsGems are about to expand.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Tokugawa refuses to talk.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Hammuragawa refuses to talk.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: You are the worst enemy of Tokugawa, Hammuragawa.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The borders of SheepTown are about to expand.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The borders of PigsGems are about to expand.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: You have constructed a Granary in Deergold City. Work has now begun on a Barracks.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The borders of SheepTown have expanded!
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The borders of PigsGems have expanded!

Turn 73, 1080 BC: The enemy has been spotted near SheepTown!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Delhi will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: CowTown will grow to size 2 on the next turn.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: You have discovered Fishing!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman (5.50) vs Gandhi's Amundsen (Axeman) (7.50)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 20.9%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +40%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +20%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Combat: -50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Combat: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 23 (77/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's Amundsen (Axeman) is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 23 (54/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 23 (31/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 23 (8/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's Amundsen (Axeman) has defeated Tokugawa's Axeman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: While defending, your Amundsen has killed a Japanese Axeman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman (5.50) vs Gandhi's Axeman 1 (CowTown) (6.50)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 28.1%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +40%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +10%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Combat: -50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Combat: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 21 (79/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 21 (58/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's Axeman 1 (CowTown) is hit for 18 (82/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 21 (37/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's Axeman 1 (CowTown) is hit for 18 (64/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 21 (16/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's Axeman 1 (CowTown) is hit for 18 (46/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Axeman is hit for 21 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's Axeman 1 (CowTown) has defeated Tokugawa's Axeman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: While defending, your Axeman 1 (CowTown) has killed a Japanese Axeman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman (4.80) vs Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) (10.00)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 0.7%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +40%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +10%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Combat: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman is hit for 28 (72/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman is hit for 28 (44/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman is hit for 28 (16/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman is hit for 28 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) has defeated Tokugawa's Spearman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: While defending, your De Soto (Delhi) has killed a Japanese Spearman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman (4.80) vs Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) (10.00)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 0.7%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +40%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +10%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Combat: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman is hit for 28 (72/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman is hit for 28 (44/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman is hit for 28 (16/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Spearman is hit for 28 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) has defeated Tokugawa's Spearman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: While defending, your De Soto (Delhi) has killed a Japanese Spearman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Archer (3.00) vs Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) (7.50)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 0.3%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +40%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Fortify: +10%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) is hit for 12 (88/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) is hit for 12 (76/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Archer is hit for 30 (70/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Archer is hit for 30 (40/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Archer is hit for 30 (10/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) is hit for 12 (64/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) is hit for 12 (52/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Tokugawa's Archer is hit for 30 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's De Soto (Delhi) (Axeman) has defeated Tokugawa's Archer!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: While defending, your De Soto (Delhi) has killed a Japanese Archer!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: A Forest has grown near Delhi!

Turn 74, 1040 BC: The enemy has been spotted near SheepTown!
Turn 74, 1040 BC: The enemy has been spotted near SheepTown!
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Delhi has grown to size 6.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Delhi has become unhappy.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Deergold City can hurry Barracks for 1⇴ with 15ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 18 turns.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: CowTown has grown to size 2.

autolog.txt file content:

Spoiler :

Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
------------------------------------------------
Turn 72/500 (1120 BC) [21-Mar-2012 22:15:36]
Research begun: Writing (176 Turns)
Deergold City begins: Barracks (8 turns)
Deergold City begins: Granary (4 turns)
SheepTown begins: Granary (60 turns)
PigsGems begins: Granary (24 turns)
Research begun: Fishing (2 Turns)
100% Research: 39 per turn
0% Espionage: 4 per turn
0% Gold: -17 per turn, 47 in the bank

After End Turn:
The whip was applied in Deergold City
Deergold City finishes: Granary
SheepTown's borders expand
PigsGems's borders expand

Turn 73/500 (1080 BC) [21-Mar-2012 22:28:35]
Delhi begins: The Pyramids (19 turns)
100% Research: 39 per turn
0% Espionage: 4 per turn
0% Gold: -17 per turn, 30 in the bank

After End Turn:
Whip anger has decreased in Delhi
Tech research finished: Fishing
Delhi grows to size 6
CowTown grows to size 2
CowTown finishes: Axeman

Other Player Actions:
While defending in Indian territory at SheepTown, Amundsen (4.15/5) defeats Japanese Axeman (Prob Victory: 79.1%)
While defending in Indian territory at SheepTown, Axeman 1 (CowTown) (2.30/5) defeats Japanese Axeman (Prob Victory: 71.9%)
While defending in Indian territory at SheepTown, De Soto (Delhi) (5.00/5) defeats Japanese Spearman (Prob Victory: 99.3%)
While defending in Indian territory at SheepTown, De Soto (Delhi) (5.00/5) defeats Japanese Spearman (Prob Victory: 99.3%)
While defending in Indian territory at SheepTown, De Soto (Delhi) (2.60/5) defeats Japanese Archer (Prob Victory: 99.7%)

Turn 74/500 (1040 BC) [21-Mar-2012 22:42:04]
Research begun: Sailing (3 Turns)
CowTown begins: Granary (10 turns)

Do we leave the lone Tokugawa Axeman alone or attempt to gain some experience points by attacking him at relatively low odds?

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

I think it is best to allow the team to view the current situation for at least a 20 hour period (I could finish the last 6t of my turn set at that time, assuming we get a quick consensus on how to proceed).

The new test game is attached.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[mabraham]

Toku's attack went very well for us. Amundsen won at 79% and De Soto at 72%, and the spearmen and archers were worthless.

Kyoto is size 4 (so can whip something) with 20% culture (34/100) and only one D1CG1CG2 archer defending. Our axes are about 7-10% chance to win against that archer, but about 88% to do at least some damage. Because so much of the archer's strength is from bonuses, just doing a hit or two of damage with a 0XP axeman is rather like suiciding a catapult. The next axe will have much better odds. Any archers he whips won't have fortification bonuses, so we look rather better against them.

It looks safe to move out with four axes to the hill across the river. I suggest leaving Amundsen and Axe 4 (who at 76/100 will heal in 1 turn in the city with Amundsen's help) on defence, bringing up the rear with Axe 5. Toku's remaining axe will presumably scuttle back home. Next turn leave Axe 5 on defence, bring the other two and continue the advance with four axes to the corn to cut off reinforcements to Osaka. Next turn again, De Soto can apply his upgrade-heal together with Amundsen's arrival to heal fully. I anticipate Toku will have whipped an archer, so we are decently likely in three turns from now to have six axes against two archers, or maybe an archer and an axe. Or we might bring Axe 5 along as well! Losing 2-4 axes for 10-20 turns faster corn access plus an easy peace-gift city sounds like a good return to me.

We could take a risk with SheepTown's safety and move 5 axes out this turn, in order to have 5 axes on Osaka two turns from now, but I don't think that's a good idea with Sheeptown about to grow - we might lose the food bin.

Other thoughts
Total Buddhist population is around 79. Presumably 9 rival capitals takes care of much of that, but there's been some spread to side cities - presumably of the Mahabodi owner.

PigGems is at 16/60 on a granary increasing by 2/turn, so by the time we do two 20 chops, the granary will finish. So I'd like to do something more like bcool's suggestion #1377 than PPP rev 3.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

I don't see any way of attacking the Axeman 1-S of SheepTown to gain a total of 5 XP without much risk. Our Axeman C1Med1 can only get even 50% odds and it already has enough XP (6/10). Our Axeman NP 4.1 3/2 could be promoted to C1 4.5 3/5, but its odds would probably be between 1/3 and 1/2 which would pay back plenty of XP, but the odds are simply to low to risk 3 XP already gained. Attacking with a Axeman NP 5.0 would be about 1/3 odds, but pays back only 4 XP (1 short of making it remotely worthwhile).

Notice that Osaka has only a single defender, an Archer CG2Dr1. This either means he's diverted the other defender to Settler escort or he's at War with another Civ that is draining his units.

If Tokugawa retreats, we probably should allow him to do so. Osaka may be tempting, but it would probably cost us at least 3 Axemen and possibly more to capture. Six Chariots could easily take it, especially with an Axeman defender. But it will be tougher for Six mainly not promoted Axemen; they are too slow and will not do very well attacking a Axeman C1Shock (if one shows up). However, WastinTime and mabraham are probably right, we do have a good chance of taking Osaka and there may be some value in doing so (advancing our VC).

Sun Tzu Wu