Societal Collapse

[brennan]

It's funny that you think that is some kind of rebuttal.

 

[Samson]

Supplying enough water for drinking is relatively easy. To give 30 million people 6 L (considerably more than needed for survival) of water apiece, you need to transport and distribute 180 million kilograms or 180,000 metric tons of water per day. That's within the capabilities of a single supertanker, or more likely a variety of cargo ships from the nearest ports that still have functional infrastructure (SF in particular probably survives in a SoCal earthquake with at most minor damage; earthquake shock waves attenuate fairly quickly with distance in California). Unloading them all would be a bit more of a challenge with damaged ports, but I'm pretty certain there would be a way it could be done, especially given the amount of attention that would be directed on the disaster area.

Even cities besieged during war rarely lose the majority of their inhabitants to thirst even when the siege goes on for many months. Of course far more people die of otherwise preventable causes, including dehydration, than usual, but it's essentially never an extremely fast collapse on the order of a couple of weeks.

Does not the Colorado river flow through southern california? Could they not just open the gates on the Hoover dam?

 

[Domen]

Destroit was destroyed by socialists and trade unions, who demanded too much from employers.

So those employers simply packed their stuff, dismantled their factories and said sayonara.

 

[El_Machinae]

it would require a serious mutation in ebola for this to become a serious threat though.

Kinda. All you need are for people to be scared enough to insist on staying home and bring production to a halt. Rising prices then make violent theft appear reasonable. A vicious circle of people staying home from work ensues.

 

[brennan]

The unions and socialists in the German motor-industry have achieved ten times more than anyone in Detroit ever dared ask for and the German motor trade is still going strong. The motor industry in Detroit went South because it was run badly by capitalists, for capitalists.

 

[Domen]

Whoops, that "Destroit" above was an unintentional slip of the tongue, really!

The unions and socialists in the German motor-industry have achieved ten times more than anyone in Detroit ever dared ask for

Maybe productivity per worker in German factories was higher than in Detroit factories, so employers could allow themselves to make more concessions.

But in Detroit production became simply unprofitable for factory owners. Costs of production became higher than profits, due to greedy trade unions.

 

[Tahuti]

The unions and socialists in the German motor-industry have achieved ten times more than anyone in Detroit ever dared ask for and the German motor trade is still going strong. The motor industry in Detroit went South because it was run badly by capitalists, for capitalists.

Germany has a far more effective industrial policy than the USA has. Unions get their way without disturbing industry too much because the government plays a mediating role, whereas the USA tends to get stuck in the middle whenever local government steer away from free market policies because they don't get the appropriate support of the Federal government.

 

[Gary Childress]

Never mind. Deleted.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Supplying enough water for drinking is relatively easy. To give 30 million people 6 L (considerably more than needed for survival) of water apiece, you need to transport and distribute 180 million kilograms or 180,000 metric tons of water per day. That's within the capabilities of a single supertanker, or more likely a variety of cargo ships from the nearest ports that still have functional infrastructure (SF in particular probably survives in a SoCal earthquake with at most minor damage; earthquake shock waves attenuate fairly quickly with distance in California). Unloading them all would be a bit more of a challenge with damaged ports, but I'm pretty certain there would be a way it could be done, especially given the amount of attention that would be directed on the disaster area.

Even cities besieged during war rarely lose the majority of their inhabitants to thirst even when the siege goes on for many months. Of course far more people die of otherwise preventable causes, including dehydration, than usual, but it's essentially never an extremely fast collapse on the order of a couple of weeks.

Cities with a population comparable to LA are pretty hard to come by as historical examples...and disaster area cities in deserts might present problems you don't see elsewhere. In any event, if you look at the economic impact of Katrina relief and extrapolate that out about thirty times over I suspect the nation would fail.

 

[classical_hero]

Society will collapse from within, just like how most societies did, only for an outside source to finish it off once and for all.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Society will collapse from within, just like how most societies did, only for an outside source to finish it off once and for all.

Well, the 'outside source' can always be characterized by 'if the society had been strong enough it would have withstood that'. There's also no way to disprove that if the outside source had not come along the 'collapse from within' would have just been a routine bit of transitional upheaval. The operational envelope involves maintaining a strong enough society to manage damaging events with some consideration of how likely they are to happen.

For example, if we are hit by a global killer asteroid we could say 'if our society had been strong enough to develop planetary defenses we could have dealt with that, so that was an internal collapse not an outside source'.

I took the idea of this thread to be assessing the possible (or even likely) 'outside sources' that society does not currently have the strength to withstand.

 

[Farm Boy]

On the other hand, if persistent extreme drought lasts for several more years, it really might be enough to paralyze California and cause a significant population exodus, like a reverse-Dust Bowl. Drinking water wouldn't be a problem (since it's such a tiny portion of water use), but just about everything in industrial society (especially growing huge amounts of crops in semi-arid conditions) requires large amounts of water to function.

The West suffers this too. The Rust Belt is calling, you'll be headed home eventually. It still rains.

 

[Bootstoots]

That's my best guess on where the Sun Belt ends up too: back in the Midwest and Northeast. The good precipitation, fertile soil, plenty of vacant space, low cost of living, and so on are pretty fundamental for viable long-term habitation.

 

[timtofly]

Destroit was destroyed by socialists and trade unions, who demanded too much from employers.

So those employers simply packed their stuff, dismantled their factories and said sayonara.

Destroit was likely drug related. The demand for drugs exceeded the demand for vehicles manufactured.

 

[El_Machinae]

Society will collapse from within, just like how most societies did, only for an outside source to finish it off once and for all.

Akin to how peasant uprisings caused the collapses of the Canaan city states, with the Hebrew tribes growing out of the survivors. Then, eventually becoming the nation of Israel, only to be conquered by outside sources.

Edit: speaking of asteroids. We currently cannot see roughly half the Near Earth asteroid, since they're between us and the Sun (which would require daytime observation, which everyone with a telescope knows can't be done). There's a donation-funded organization intending to put up a specialised telescope orbiting the Sun instead of Earth that will be able to see those missing asteroids. The org is called B612. Honestly, check them out. They're this year's top contender for my annual $50 investment into space development

 

[Ajidica]

Destroit was destroyed by socialists and trade unions, who demanded too much from employers.

So those employers simply packed their stuff, dismantled their factories and said sayonara.

No, what destroyed the Detroit automotive industry was automakers providing poor products that consumers abandoned when subjected to oil shocks (you don't want to drive an aircraft carrier around when gas is rather expensive) and foreign products became available.
Due to the falling demand for their products and increased competition, manufacturers attempted to cut labor costs by moving their factories to areas with cheaper labor costs and began sourcing their parts differently.

 

[onejayhawk]

Detroit has not have a single pro-capitalist mayor since 1962.

How has that worked out?

J

 

[BenitoChavez]

This is somewhat exotic but within the realm of possibility. If a particularly large Coronal Mass Ejection occurred it could knock out the power to a significant portion of the world. Without power we would be sent back to the stone age pretty quick.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

No, what destroyed the Detroit automotive industry was automakers providing poor products that consumers abandoned when subjected to oil shocks (you don't want to drive an aircraft carrier around when gas is rather expensive) and foreign products became available.
Due to the falling demand for their products and increased competition, manufacturers attempted to cut labor costs by moving their factories to areas with cheaper labor costs and began sourcing their parts differently.

As someone who made their living as a car salesman...the differences between cars are 95% advertising. A car is a car, the American manufacturers just got badly out marketed.

 

[brennan]

We should obviously refer this to a car expert.


Link to video.