Some stats on gay marriage...

[Little Raven]

I know that at least some people on this forum base their objections to same-sex marriage on the idea that allowing it will weaken marriage as an institution and further degrade the American family.

Courtesy of our European cousins, we now have some data on that very subject. (you will recall that Denmark legalized same sex marriage in 89, Norway in 93, and Sweden in 95) William Eskridge and Darren Spedale decided to crunch some statistics from those countries, and find out just what kind of damage has been done. They're written a book. You can find a good summary here.

[T]here is no evidence that allowing same-sex couples to marry weakens the institution. If anything, the numbers indicate the opposite. A decade after Denmark, Norway and Sweden passed their respective partnership laws, heterosexual marriage rates had risen 10.7% in Denmark; 12.7% in Norway; and a whopping 28.8% in Sweden. In Denmark over the last few years, marriage rates are the highest they've been since the early 1970s. Divorce rates among heterosexual couples, on the other hand, have fallen. A decade after each country passed its partnership law, divorce rates had dropped 13.9% in Denmark; 6% in Norway; and 13.7% in Sweden. On average, divorce rates among heterosexuals remain lower now than in the years before same-sex partnerships were legalized.

In addition, out-of-wedlock birthrates in each of these countries contradict the suggestion by social conservatives that gay marriage will lead to great increases in out-of-wedlock births and therefore less family stability for children. In Denmark, the percentage of out-of-wedlock births was 46% in 1989; now it is 45%. In Norway, out-of-wedlock births jumped from 14% in 1980 to 45% right before partnerships were adopted in 1993; now they stand at 51%, a much lower rate of increase than in the decade before same-sex unions. The Swedish trend mirrors that of Norway, with much lower rates of increase post-partnership than pre-partnership.

Is there a correlation, then, between same-sex marriage and a strengthening of the institution of marriage? It would be difficult, and suspect, to establish a cause-and-effect relationship between these trends in heterosexual marriage and marriage rights for gays and lesbians. But the facts demonstrate that there is no proof that same-sex marriage will harm the institution of marriage, or children. An optimistic reading of the facts might even suggest that the energy and enthusiasm that same-sex couples bring to the institution of marriage may cause unmarried heterosexual couples to take a fresh look at marriage as an option.

In addition, none of the countries have taken any steps towards legalizing incest, polygamy, man-dog couples, or any of the other 'slippery slope' arguments that are often presented.

I've long believed that gays couldn't possibly mess up marriage any worse than straights have. I'm pleased to see that at least so far, the Scandinavian experiment seems to agree.

 

[Leonel]

Hmm interesting. I think I'll have to do some reassessing!

 

[skadistic]

Its still immoral and the bible said so.

It doesn't matter what numbers turn out to be bigots will still seek to repress the minority for some reason or another.

 

[.Shane.]

That's an interesting read, sadly, its just telling us the obvious.

 

[El_Machinae]

A decade after Denmark, Norway and Sweden passed their respective partnership laws, heterosexual marriage rates had risen 10.7% in Denmark; 12.7% in Norway; and a whopping 28.8% in Sweden. In Denmark over the last few years, marriage rates are the highest they've been since the early 1970s.

This doesn't seem population corrected. In the 70's, the baby-boomers were becoming adults. Recently, their children are.

The number people in the 'marrying age' is currently higher than it was 10 years ago.

A real statistic would be comparing long-term 'shack ups' vs. marriage, no?

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Yeah, I think this tells us what most of us expected. Hopefully this will help solidify homosexuals as a group that should no longer be discriminated against.

 

[Urederra]

Its still immoral and the bible said so.
.

Fortunately, the government doesn't have to follow what the Bible says.

The figures I would like to know is how many gay/lesb couples have been married in those countries. I bet there are not too many. (maybe 2-3 per 1000-2000 habs? That would be a high figure IMHO. Even with those 2-3 per 1000 habitants are not going to have big impact in society. IMHO again.

 

[El_Machinae]

I know a lesbian couple that got married! They just had twins!

 

[Masquerouge]

A nice article - but I guess it will not change POVs on the matter.

 

[MobBoss]

I humbly submit that a lot of this probably nothing to do with gay marriage what-so-ever or at the very least, the data did nothing to research other factors that in turn could have had an effect upon these statistics as well.

Question. Was it also part of the study how much Islamic immigrants have affected these stats? We seem to hear stories about the EU and how the Islamic immigrants are outbreeding your avg european. Could the increase in islamic marriages with a low divorce rate affected these stats as well?

I humbly submit that without looking at all possible causes and their effects such data only amounts to so much propaganda.

I just checked out the authors. They are both attorneys, not researchers or scientists, and both have been activists for gay marriage for a long time. This book is not going to bring an unbiased view or approach to the issue....so, if you want to read a book on gay marriage written by attorneys who are also gay marriage proponents, then go right ahead.

Me...I would certainly prefer something done and researched properly by someone without an agenda.

 

[Masquerouge]

I humbly submit that a lot of this probably nothing to do with gay marriage what-so-ever or at the very least, the data did nothing to research other factors that in turn could have had an effect upon these statistics as well.

Question. Was it also part of the study how much Islamic immigrants have affected these stats? We seem to hear stories about the EU and how the Islamic immigrants are outbreeding your avg european. Could the increase in islamic marriages with a low divorce rate affected these stats as well?

I humbly submit that without looking at all possible causes and their effects such data only amounts to so much propaganda.

This is what I was talking about when I said point of views here would likely not be changed by this article.

I humbly submit you read the book.

And I humbly submit you consider the "stories" about EU being outbreed by Islamic migrants as just stories, especially for Sweden, Denmark and other nordic countries.

 

[IglooDame]

Do the Scandinavian countries really get significant muslim immigration? I thought it was sort of a south-of-the-Skaggerak issue.

 

[Bill3000]

I humbly submit that a lot of this probably nothing to do with gay marriage what-so-ever or at the very least, the data did nothing to research other factors that in turn could have had an effect upon these statistics as well.

Question. Was it also part of the study how much Islamic immigrants have affected these stats? We seem to hear stories about the EU and how the Islamic immigrants are outbreeding your avg european. Could the increase in islamic marriages with a low divorce rate affected these stats as well?

I humbly submit that without looking at all possible causes and their effects such data only amounts to so much propaganda.

And I humbly submit that you don't make such a claim that it is propaganda, or that the study is crap, without looking at the study and seeing what statistics it uses.

 

[Little Raven]

I humbly submit that without looking at all possible causes and their effects such data only amounts to so much propaganda.

No. While it's true that it would be a mistake to conclude that gay marriage strengthens heterosexual marriage, I think it makes a pretty convincing case that it doesn't significantly damage it. I mean, we’re talking about 17 years worth of numbers here. And frankly, they’re pretty darn good as far as marriage is concerned. If same-sex marriage really is the family killer some people make it out to be, why isn’t it showing up in the data? Why no move to allow people to wed their pets? Shouldn’t there be some empirical data to support the anti-gay marriage viewpoint by now?

 

[ComradeDavo]

I humbly submit that a lot of this probably nothing to do with gay marriage what-so-ever or at the very least, the data did nothing to research other factors that in turn could have had an effect upon these statistics as well.

Question. Was it also part of the study how much Islamic immigrants have affected these stats? We seem to hear stories about the EU and how the Islamic immigrants are outbreeding your avg european. Could the increase in islamic marriages with a low divorce rate affected these stats as well?

I humbly submit that without looking at all possible causes and their effects such data only amounts to so much propaganda.

Oh man, you Republican Americans and your 'Europe is being over run by Islamists!' mumbo jumbo.

Here's the thing - There really isn't a great amount of Islamic followers in Europe, % wise!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4385768.stm

UNITED KINGDOM
Total population: 58.8 million
Muslim population: 1.6 million (2.8%)

FRANCE
Total population: 62.3 million
Muslim population: Five to six million (8-9.6%)

GERMANY
Total population: 82.5 million
Muslim population: 3 million (3.6%)

ITALY
Total population: 58.4 million
Muslim population: 825,000 (1.4%)

DENMARK
Total population: 5.4 million
Muslim population: 270,000 (5%)

Thats not alot!

 

[Shadylookin]

I couldn't possibly see how gay marriage would effect heterosexuals at all

 

[puglover]

I know a lesbian couple that got married! They just had twins!

Adoption or in-virto?

I knew those claims that gay marriages are less stable were false. The government shouldn't be regulating this kind of thing, and while I believe homosexuality is immoral, I think sexual orientation should be a civic right.

 

[MobBoss]

This is what I was talking about when I said point of views here would likely not be changed by this article.

I humbly submit you read the book.

And I humbly submit you consider the "stories" about EU being outbreed by Islamic migrants as just stories, especially for Sweden, Denmark and other nordic countries.

Boy..I just love it when I say "I humbly submit" and everyone parrots me right and left. Funny.

Look. Do you really and I mean honestly think such a book will be written by two attorneys strong pro-gay marriage as these two will be unbiased and fair?

Would you have also given credence to a study done by Pat Robertson, or Jerry Falwell on the subject? No? Then why ask me to swallow, hook, line and sinker what these two gay activists publish?

And I humbly submit that you don't make such a claim that it is propaganda, or that the study is crap, without looking at the study and seeing what statistics it uses.

Again...I would much rather take a look at the authors backgrounds and judge for myself on how unbiased the study is likely to be. Unless of course you also want to readily accept biased studys from my side of the aisle as well.

Come on be honest. If I trotted out a book written by James Dobsen on the subject and tried to sluff it off as unbiased you guys would be all over me.

 

[Masquerouge]

Boy..I just love it when I say "I humbly submit" and everyone parrots me right and left. Funny.

Look. Do you really and I mean honestly think such a book will be written by two attorneys strong pro-gay marriage as these two will be unbiased and fair?

Would you have also given credence to a study done by Pat Robertson, or Jerry Falwell on the subject? No? Then why ask me to swallow, hook, line and sinker what these two gay activists publish?

Gay activists? You mean because they're researchers investigating gay marriage, they're gay activists?

Again...I would much rather take a look at the authors backgrounds and judge for myself on how unbiased the study is likely to be

You mean you haven't even done a Wiki search on them?

But sure. Slander the researchers. Shows how little you have to say against the actual study.

 

[Bill3000]

Boy..I just love it when I say "I humbly submit" and everyone parrots me right and left. Funny.

Sorry. I wouldn't have replied if I noticed those posts earlier. Regardless of the fact that most people on this f orum disagree with you, it's a bit unfair that we are pounding you like this.

Again...I would much rather take a look at the authors backgrounds and judge for myself on how unbiased the study is likely to be. Unless of course you also want to readily accept biased studys from my side of the aisle as well.

Come on be honest. If I trotted out a book written by James Dobsen on the subject and tried to sluff it off as unbiased you guys would be all over me.

You have a point. However, whether or not the authors are biased or not has nothing to do with the question at hand; e.g. whether or not gay marriage harms hetereosexual marriage. At the most it would increase the level of acceptability required, but it doesn't mean that you should ignore a study just because it is biased. (Although it's an extremely tempting shortcut)