Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Game 5 Thread

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven continues Friday, May 12th on Twitch at noon EDT, 5pm BST.

You can now catch Game 4 on Twitch and YouTube.

Game 5, in my opinion, could serve up the greatest potential chaos of the season, with a deceptive arrangement of warmongers Kublai Khan, Cyrus, and Boudica to the north and higher peaceweight leaders Asoka, Churchill, and Roosevelt to the south. Also, check out that beautiful city site in the jungle just waiting to change the trajectory of the game.

Watch the preview here, read up on the game here, and make your predictions here. And a hearty welcome to all to discuss the game in this thread and follow along for what will hopefully continue to be a dynamic and entertaining season!

Now featuring CFC's own parallel odds offered by resident bookie @Fippy!

 

[Kaitzilla]

The only ones who declare at Pleased are Kublai and Roosevelt.

Hard to bet on America, but a lot of commerce at the start.

A lot of gold between Kublai and Boudica.

I worry for Boudica's economy.
Bad starting techs, no econ traits, no place to put cottages or seafood to grab.

Asoka and Boudica should found the first religions.

Kublai has the only plains cow tile on the map nearby?

 

[ManiaMuse89]

Saying it now, I think Kublai Khan is way, way overrated as a pool 1 leader. Far more so than Stalin, Justinian or Gilgamesh. He just has no killer instinct and is rarely strong enough to come out on top. I am even tempted to put him as FTD. 42% of picks so far is just people blindly picking the pool 1 leader.

Asoka is my dark horse pick if he manages to peacefully expand to the grasslands in the centre of the map and get the tech edge.

Otherwise Boudica but that very much depends on how effective she is at her first war. If she ends up in a bunch of stalemate wars she will fall behind in tech. Roosevelt can be semi-competent at keeping up in tech.

Churchill I do think is genuinely useless but his land looks fairly good.

Cyrus does not have great land and also risks getting boxed in if he refuses to build settlers. So maybe also a FTD candidate.

 

[Thrasybulos]

Kublai should be a pool 2 leader.
Games he's in tend to be very unpredictable : he's good enough that he's guaranteed to pull some wins, but not good enough to dominate a game on repeated runs, even with a good start.
So predictions in such games tend to be a gamble on his performance (or lack thereof).

 

[AcaMetis]

Feels like this entire season so far has been an unpredictable gamble . Not that I object, of course .

 

[Fippy]

Looks like a fun game yup..no clear favorites here.

 

[Nick723]

Roosevelt’s capital is so good that I’m very tempted by him. (Of course, now watch him refuse to tech mining or animal husbandry).

 

[Fippy]

Sulla mocking Churchy again always makes me want to pick him
No love for CHA whatsoever..and his uniques are better than many others, at least for this setup.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Kublai has the only plains cow tile on the map nearby?

I believe there is another plains-cow that Boudica will settle, but neither resource is in the starting area or guaranteed by the first expansion.

@Fippy Do you feel up to offering odds again this week? I could take a crack at it.

 

[Keler]

Made some more autoplays for this game,for fun. Maybe it gives some idea for pool leader haters.

Spoiler Screenshots :

Winner Cyrus	Runner up Churchill	First to die Asoka	Space
Winner Roosevelt	Runner up Boudica	First to die Asoka	Domination
Winner Cyrus	Runner up Boudica	First to die Kublai Khan	Domination
Winner Churchill	Runner up Roosevelt	First to die Asoka	Domination
Winner Cyrus	Runner up Churchill	First to die Kublai Khan	Space
Winner Cyrus	Runner up Kublai Khan	First to die Asoka	Space
Winner Asoka	Runner up Cyrus	First to die Kublai Khan	Culture
Winner Churchill	Runner up Roosevelt	First to die Cyrus	Domination
Winner Boudica	Runner up Cyrus	First to die Roosevelt	Space
Winner Cyrus	Runner up Kublai Khan	First to die Boudica	Space

By finish points that is
1)Cyrus 29
2)Churchill 14
3)Boudica 9
3)Roosevelt 9
5)Asoka 5
6)Kublai Khan 4

sorry middle starters

Now as far as first two religions goes (meditation+polytheism)
Boudica got 7
Asoka got 7
Churchill got 3
Cyrus got 2
Roosevelt got 1

This is for fun purpose only. Apparently Cyrus would have dominated this field under fairer start. Can Cyrus win with that small start of his in actual game 5 map? Must see.

 

[Fippy]

@Fippy Do you feel up to offering odds again this week? I could take a crack at it.

Sure
I have to think about which odds a bit.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

6)Kublai Khan 4

Wow, I suppose that supports @Thrasybulos's comment above!

 

[danjuno]

Copypasting my reasoning on my response form:

My heart Is begging me to bet on my personal favorite leader in the game (FDR) pulling a Churchill this year, but my brain knows better. I am hopeful he can ride an obvious Kublai win to second. His one saving grace is Asoka is in this game and Boudica (only other civs starting with Myst) is going to stomp him, so FDR is not the automatic FTD.

Boudica or Cyrus are not out of the question, but Cyrus is hemmed in, and Boudica's economy will be awful if she doesn't steal Asoka or FDR's stuff.

 

[need my speed]

I would post what I voted for her, but how can I access the results of the form again?

I remember being controversial and selecting...

Cyrus to win. Not thát controversial in my opinion; Cyrus is always a solid player, he has both Iron and Horses (and Wine, Coal, and Uranium) and a nice amount of forests for productivity. I know, coastal starts screw over the AI, but... I think Cyrus can handle that? Because he is solid in both economy and warmongering, so hopefully he won't be his own worst enemy.

Boudica to be second. She can have her moments, she can also amount to nothing. She has a lot of forests, she has Iron (and Coal), she has Pigs on a grassland hill in her BFC. Honestly she could win. It will depend on diplomacy / the random targeting mechanisms that make Boudica declare war on either Roosevelt or Kublai. It is more likely that that is Roosevelt, instead of Kublai, but still I predict a war between Boudica and Kublai, and I predict Boudica to win that. Kublai's immediate land is worse than both Boudica's and Cyrus's, Kublai also has a coastal start - Kublai does have Horses, Wine, and Uranium (purely for the grassland hills tile yield), all in his BFC, but mhm... Boudica doesn't declare at Pleased, though, and Boudica will get a religion, so it is very well possible that Kublai and Boudica will be good friends and that Cyrus will die to Kublai.

But if not! I selected Kublai first to die. Quite controversial this.

I think I put victory by Space at 1950 AD (no idea what turn number that would amount to), although I admit Domination at an earlier date (like 1915 or so) is probably likelier. But focusing purely on Cyrus, I will say Space is likelier than Domination for him (doesn't declare at Pleased).

Total number of wars, I don't remember.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

I would post what I voted for her, but how can I access the results of the form again?

I remember being controversial and selecting...

Cyrus to win. Not thát controversial in my opinion; Cyrus is always a solid player, he has both Iron and Horses (and Wine, Coal, and Uranium) and a nice amount of forests for productivity. I know, coastal starts screw over the AI, but... I think Cyrus can handle that? Because he is solid in both economy and warmongering, so hopefully he won't be his own worst enemy.

Boudica to be second. She can have her moments, she can also amount to nothing. She has a lot of forests, she has Iron (and Coal), she has Pigs on a grassland hill in her BFC. Honestly she could win. It will depend on diplomacy / the random targeting mechanisms that make Boudica declare war on either Roosevelt or Kublai. It is more likely that that is Roosevelt, instead of Kublai, but still I predict a war between Boudica and Kublai, and I predict Boudica to win that. Kublai's immediate land is worse than both Boudica's and Cyrus's, Kublai also has a coastal start - Kublai does have Horses, Wine, and Uranium (purely for the grassland hills tile yield), all in his BFC, but mhm... Boudica doesn't declare at Pleased, though, and Boudica will get a religion, so it is very well possible that Kublai and Boudica will be good friends and that Cyrus will die to Kublai.

But if not! I selected Kublai first to die. Quite controversial this.

I think I put victory by Space at 1950 AD (no idea what turn number that would amount to), although I admit Domination at an earlier date (like 1915 or so) is probably likelier. But focusing purely on Cyrus, I will say Space is likelier than Domination for him (doesn't declare at Pleased).

Total number of wars, I don't remember.

I don't think Sulla has selected the option on google forms to send you a copy of the response with the edit link. There is an edit response button on the confirmation link when you submit your response so maybe that still appears in your browsing history somewhere?

I am also tempted by Kublai Khan FTD but still thinking about it. This one I think is more likely to be a domination though. There should be quite a lot of warmongering which usually leads to someone getting strong and rolling over the other AIs. Even Asoka can be pretty ruthless at warmongering in this field if he gets a tech lead.

 

[The Rook]

By finish points that is
1)Cyrus 29
2)Churchill 14
3)Boudica 9
3)Roosevelt 9
5)Asoka 5
6)Kublai Khan 4

sorry middle starters

It is interesting that Kublai performed so poorly in your tests. I wonder if this is almost entirely due to the middle start (I see Asoka performed similarly badly in the centre).

This completely contrasts with the results in the alternate histories for the championship game in season 4 (also balanced starts). Charlemagne controversially won season 4, but Kublai absolutely crushed the competition in the alternate histories, winning 5 of the 10 games and 4 via domination (Sullla's table below).



Link to season 4 final alternate histories

On paper I'd have thought Kublai should tick many of the boxes for a successful survivor AI. He generally expands well due to the creative trait, will attack at pleased, has naturally superior mounted/melee units and he gets on with the low peace weight AIs. I think Kublai's main weakness is that if he can't obtain a decisive advantage in the middle game his economy tends to lag behind the better researchers later.

If anything, the above table concludes my theory that Stalin is the real pool 1 fraud! Stalin might have a bunch of survivor wins, but I'm still unsure what he actually does well.

 

[Fippy]

It is interesting that Kublai performed so poorly in your tests. I wonder if this is almost entirely due to the middle start (I see Asoka performed similarly badly in the centre).

Coastal start (can build useless scouting workboats, galleys etc) with just clams.
Worker can only build roads early (it's something but not great).
Little to no rivers. Matters less for deity AIs, but being creative doesn't overcome rather poor land alone.

 

[Keler]

I will test again using championship map this time. Meaning Cyrus-Churchill borders Boudica-Roosevelt as well.
Kublai is similar to Gilgamesh AI and can go culture victory sometimes.
I should post in 5 hours again when it is done.
Still none of this should help with the competition though. I still think Kublai khan can win his game.

 

[The Rook]

Coastal start (can build useless scouting workboats, galleys etc) with just clams.
Worker can only build roads early (it's something but not great).
Little to no rivers. Matters less for deity AIs, but being creative doesn't overcome rather poor land alone.

Yes, I'm not too excited about Kublai's start here either, but at least he has plenty of space and food tiles nearby (also being creative makes it harder for the AI to settle stupidly). Commerce is weak, but most of the land is cottageable. Kublai starts with the wheel and he has to research fishing, so surely he must randomly research pottery soonish. My biggest concern for Kublai is he will likely have the longest land border and be at risk of multi-front wars.

In fact, the more I look, the more I dislike every start.

Cyrus is so close to Churchill. Could he beat Churchill in a 1v1, or would it be a lengthy stalemate?

Churchil is too close to Cyrus and will probably dump his 2nd city in the jungle.

Boudica has a really slow looking start for her terrible techs and will almost certainly spend the early turns researching religion. If she could settle the pig/gold for her 2nd (holy) city it would be a huge boost.

Asoka has a risky central start, lots of dry tiles and the poison stone pill (probably means he will build the mids and be stuck in US for most of the game).

I think Roosevelt has the best start for the AI to play, but I fear he will either end up boxed in the corner or be forced to expand to the middle and end up sharing a border with Boudica/Kublai (which could increase his ftd chances).

 

[Keler]

Spoiler Screenshots :

Towards to end of the game AIs bribe me to declare war but most likely on dying target.Hoping it didnt put them in endless war with me but I don't really think that was case I watched replays.I was alt tab on my computer all the time so I wasn't able to stop and fix that. Nevertheless here is the result

Winner

Runner up

First to die

Victory type

Victory Date

Asoka	Roosevelt	Kublai Khan	Domination	1884
Cyrus	Kublai Khan	Asoka	Domination	1890
Asoka	Churchill	Kublai Khan	Space	1896
Asoka	Kublai Khan	Churchill	Culture	1921
Asoka	Cyrus	Boudica	Space	1923
Boudica	Kublai Khan	Asoka	Domination	1936
Churchill	Cyrus	Kublai Khan	Domination	1937
Cyrus	Kublai Khan	Roosevelt	Space	1937
Churchill	Asoka	Kublai Khan	Space	1938
Churchill	Boudica	Roosevelt	Space	1951

So that gave by finish points
1)Asoka 22
2)Churchill 17
3)Cyrus 14
4)Kublai Khan 8
5)Boudica 7
6)Roosevelt 2


And once again for first two religion finders
Boudica found 10 (there was no game Celtic leader did not get budhism or hinduism)
Asoka found 5
Roosevelt found 3
Churchill found 2

Post script: Roosevelt gets the stonehenge almost all the times.