The crypto thread

What do you prefer?

  • Bitcoin

    Votes: 3 9.7%
  • Ethereum

    Votes: 6 19.4%
  • Binance Coin

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Cardano

    Votes: 1 3.2%
  • Fiat

    Votes: 6 19.4%
  • Go away, I deal in coke and gold bars

    Votes: 14 45.2%
  • Privacy coins

    Votes: 1 3.2%

  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
I felt like I should clarify one point: "set for life" <> "set in life".

The latter means you have an actual plan to get to retirement, & are on that path & following it, which is something everyone needs to do, regardless of age & is irrelevant of investing in Crypto. The former, I'm guessing, no one posting on this particular site is at, or else they'd be hanging out on their yacht.
You'd be wrong though. Yachts are a money pit and here are much better ways to waste one's money. As with many things, definitions are important. Many people would be quite happy and comfortable with $500,000 as a retirement nest egg. For others it might take a million or two. And for still others less than ten would make them feel like paupers. That is why the question of how much money will you need to support your anticipated retirement lifestyle is so important. A good plan plus some luck can get you there.
 
Right, I think you mean “unfavourable to a certain class”. Visible reality shows that it’s perfectly possible, although governments are still adept at suppression.

Contract law depends on enforcement by those with the monopoly on violence, who make the law, punish and judge - that means states. Always did throughout known history, since Sumeria.

That, in turn, enabled the appearance of crypto cities and crypto countries, where, previously, offshore heavens could be found. We are not seeing just the appearance of a new type or flavour of currency or solution to the inflation problem.

Inflation is not a problem. it's a feature.

Money is a tool for trading, not for hoarding. Hoarding is done on actual material goods, or debts. Inflation enforces that use of money as a trade vehicle. It just should not get too high, 'hyperinflation'. Think of what savings are today: you have a savings account, that is a credit on the bank. Or you hold bonds or other debt instruments. For the latest few years it's pretty obvious that hoarding is being made on real estate also. Hoarding is, of course, bad for people in general.

What we call savings are done in debt instruments with some "liquidity", have been ever since money and specie was disconnected. Back when money happened to be also a precious metal it could be used also for hoarding due to that dual nature, but that caused a problem of lack of incentive to invest. Which was the problem with the gold standard - periodic deflation and crisis were unavoidable.The cryptocraps are just another debt instrument. Want proof? They're traded and priced in currency.

Management of state currencies means managing inflation so as to discourage excessive hoarding tendencies and make sure that wealth doesn't get to concentrated and people busy playing games of trading hoarded goods with each other instead of producing actually useful stuff.
Wat evidence that such a thing is bad, and that this liberalized economy has gone off-tract, governments are failing to inflate away wealth? The "shortages" in the US, creeping in Europe... too many people spending their time speculating uselessly instead of producing something useful! The physicists became "quants", the writing has been on the wall for years...

What we are seeing can be characterised as “digitalisation of value”. Value can be stored in the cloud or in your tattoo and summoned at will in an instant. It can be programmed to perform various tasks, including those, which, throughout history, were the privilege of the wealthiest classes in the society and financial institutions.

Only if you don't know history. Notes started as notes of credit created by any merchant and passed around depending on trust placed by the public on that merchant. Banking went through "wild west" periods, including literally the Wild West of the USA period. The exact same behaviors, constraints and consequences of the wild west of banking period are happening with the cryptocraps. Read Galbraith's classic Money - Whence it came, where it went for a short historical overview. There is nothing new in this crap, it's a slight variation of something that repeatedly happened before.

Imo the worst thing with cryptocrap compared with banking wild wests is that the cryptocrap is not even being sued by enterprising scammers to get funds to actually produce something. It's purely a shall game play that so engrosses people that they spend their time doing socially useless trades in pursuit of personal wealth. Imagine small island with a cryptofad. Or any other get-rich-trading fad. If everyone engages on it solely, everyone starves. What I mean to point out is that trading speculatively in pursuit of wealth does not produce anything to be consumed by people. Does not sustain anyone, does not create anything useful for live.

Also, even the promise of a limited emission and allegedly (why should scarcity mean value anyway?) eternally rising price is just that, a promise. Which gets broken, and eventually ends in crying by those left holding the bag. Remember: contracts depend on enforcement by state power. The algorithm and the trading of any crytocrap depends on a lot of contract enforcement. The more complex it is, the more it depends on the orderly workings of an infrastructure enforced by states. This is not your old carrying silver or gold on a mule to the next town to pay for something. Then you needed weapons to defend from bandits killing you and taking it. Now you need communications networks correctly working, protection from all the people exploiting software vulnerabilities (which are legion - complexity!), protection from scammers, enforcement of any contracts after you make payments in case you don't receive the goods, etc. It doesn't free you from the state, it makes you even more vulnerable and dependent on state power and stability of its enforcement!
Want evidence? No one is holding and trading cryptocraps, they do it through "exchanges"? Who polices the exchanges and prevents those who control them from just taking the things?

The traders are the ones skimming the profits. They're the house in this casino.

Through progress the value became programmable and accessible. I am sure wealthy individuals and governments will find a way to centralise and monopolise some of those flows and will manage it well, like they did in the good old days of the Great Depression or the dot com crisis or in the 2008.

What tangible benefit does “management by political power” provide over “management by consensus mechanism”? If we agree on something, then it can be laid down in code, and when it is, it becomes law (or law-in-progress). Political power de facto serves the interests of major international capitalist groups. Consensus mechanism can be used to do the same, but with less friction and on the cheap. The principal difference between the two is that the latter is harder to manipulate in authoritarian way - you can’t fiddle with crypto interest rates on the whim just because your political party needs it NOW to look good on the internet.

Needless complexity is frailty, not progress. A trade arrangement that would depend on very complex networks functioning very well is a dumb idea. So dumb in fact that the cryptopcrap is used for speculation, not for trade. So cryptocraps are condemned to be a toy to last through speculative eras, and then collapse as they end. Far from being any "store of wealth", they'll be the first things to evaporate because they're sequentially useless. Land is worth something, real estate may fall but will still be worth something where people need shelter. Even base metals will be worth scrap price. Numbers produces and traded by algorithms are existent beyond the game they're part of. Come a social crisis they are useless because - again by definition - in a social crisis the rules of the games, the games themselves played, change. Those things that depend on stable game rules simply vanish overnight.

Political power serves the interests of the groups of people who organize and mobilize to capture political power. It's not a fatality that it should serve the interests of a few wealthy individuals. In any case by definition political power always controls the rules, there is no evading that. If you dislike the rues the only useful way you can change them is by capturing political power yourself to change them. That's the useful goal of any consensus to change. Any other "consensus" will be framed within what political power allows.
 
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Contract law depends on enforcement by those with the monopoly on violence, who make the law, punish and judge - that means states. Always did throughout known history, since Sumeria.

These with monopoly on violence can enforce the law regardless of whether their subject deals in paper, electronic or encrypted currency. Didn’t pay your bills? The state puts a lid on your business. Exactly the same as in good old Sumeria. It’s just... money, nothing more. And money is the means to exchange value. If the value isn’t delivered upon contract, the subject gets punished. Show me how that punishment becomes impossible once we talk about crypto as means of value exchange. Are they going to tear down prisons once the crypto comes?

Lets look at another example for the sake of variety: digital cash is programmed in advance to release itself and deliver value to multiple sides of the contract, once certain contract obligations are fulfilled, verified by parties independent to the contract, thus removing the need for banks, courts, arbitrage and such. There, useless money produced value by removing layers of unnecessary expense to all the parties concerned.

Inflation is not a problem. it's a feature.

Wonderful revelations on a Friday morning. Tell that Zimbabweans... I have, by the way, one of their bank notes framed at home, which says “one trillion dollars”. And they are far from being the only example of inflation not being a problem. A universally accepted digital asset, which combats inflation by means of burning value is a handy complementary tool alongside traditional currencies.

Imo the worst thing with cryptocrap compared with banking wild wests is that the cryptocrap is not even being sued by enterprising scammers to get funds to actually produce something. It's purely a shall game play that so engrosses people that they spend their time doing socially useless trades in pursuit of personal wealth. Imagine small island with a cryptofad. Or any other get-rich-trading fad. If everyone engages on it solely, everyone starves. What I mean to point out is that trading speculatively in pursuit of wealth does not produce anything to be consumed by people. Does not sustain anyone, does not create anything useful for live.

The fact that a bunch of con artists, drug dealers, arms traders and child traffickers prefer the USD doesn’t make USD one bit less useful when it comes to legal trades. We separate: we praise USD for it’s values as a world reserve currency and combat the ugly twists of human nature. The same separation principles is applied to the digital money. Humans are humans, “but drug dealers are going to use it” is a fair point, but it’s not enough of a point to stop using it. Normal side effect of any “means of value exchange” is that bad dudes are going to use it.

Alright, I'd like to engage more with your message, but out of time, unfortunately. Thanks for stating your opinion.
 
Bitcoin Price Reaches $60,000 as Traders Anticipate ETF
Securities and Exchange Commission could rule on proposals for bitcoin-futures fund as soon as next week

Bitcoin hit $60,000 Friday for the first time since April, as traders anticipate U.S. regulators will approve the first exchange-traded fund to track the cryptocurrency.

Approval of an ETF that will buy bitcoin futures contracts—though not the coins themselves—would increase the cryptocurrency’s legitimacy and make it easier for institutional investors to get exposure. Four applications for bitcoin futures ETFs, submitted in August, are pending approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitcoin’s price has chugged higher ahead of a regulatory deadline next week for the SEC to act on some of those applications. On Thursday night, a tweet from an SEC Twitter subaccount was seen as hinting at an approval, urging investors to weigh the potential risks and benefits before investing in such a fund.

Noelle Acheson, head of market insights at crypto lender Genesis Global Trading, said it would be a sentiment boost if a bitcoin futures ETF was approved, an outcome on which she put odds of at least 75%.

The cryptocurrency’s backers have been trying since 2013 to get approval for a bitcoin-based ETF. The SEC has repeatedly denied applications, saying that crypto exchanges are too opaque to ascertain whether prices are reached fairly.

No mainstream securities exchange overseen by the SEC trades directly in bitcoins. However, several, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, trade bitcoin futures, which allow investors to bet on the direction of the cryptocurrency’s price without holding the volatile coins themselves. These contracts are transparent in price and easily traded in larger sizes, which may allow the SEC to get comfortable with an ETF owning them, backers say.

“All of us know it’s going to happen. The question is when,” said Tim Grant, head of European operations at cryptocurrency.

Analysts and investors say that bitcoin’s recent gains could reverse if any approved funds doesn’t see strong inflows, and that it is unclear how much pent-up demand there is among institutional investors. Those who want exposure to cryptocurrencies already have indirect ways to do so, such as buying shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc., which went public in April, or shares of several listed bitcoin-mining companies.

Bitcoin has been typically volatile this year. The price rose as high as $63,381 in April, according to Dow Jones Market Data, bolstered by Coinbase’s initial public offering. It then fell more than 50% through July, pulled down by souring sentiment, snarky tweets from Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk about the cryptocurrency, and China’s ban on bitcoin transactions.

It hit $60,327 early Friday, according to CoinDesk, bringing its gains this year to about 106%.

@RobAnybody Time to jump in!
 
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Wonderful revelations on a Friday morning. Tell that Zimbabweans... I have, by the way, one of their bank notes framed at home, which says “one trillion dollars”. And they are far from being the only example of inflation not being a problem. A universally accepted digital asset, which combats inflation by means of burning value is a handy complementary tool alongside traditional currencies.
I agree with your last sentence.

But inflation isn't some magical beast ready to run away and ruin everything. Hyperinflation is specific and requires deliberate policy in response to specific and measurable phenomena.
 
Bitcoin Price Reaches $60,000 as Traders Anticipate ETF
Securities and Exchange Commission could rule on proposals for bitcoin-futures fund as soon as next week

Bitcoin hit $60,000 Friday for the first time since April, as traders anticipate U.S. regulators will approve the first exchange-traded fund to track the cryptocurrency.

Approval of an ETF that will buy bitcoin futures contracts—though not the coins themselves—would increase the cryptocurrency’s legitimacy and make it easier for institutional investors to get exposure. Four applications for bitcoin futures ETFs, submitted in August, are pending approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitcoin’s price has chugged higher ahead of a regulatory deadline next week for the SEC to act on some of those applications. On Thursday night, a tweet from an SEC Twitter subaccount was seen as hinting at an approval, urging investors to weigh the potential risks and benefits before investing in such a fund.

Noelle Acheson, head of market insights at crypto lender Genesis Global Trading, said it would be a sentiment boost if a bitcoin futures ETF was approved, an outcome on which she put odds of at least 75%.

The cryptocurrency’s backers have been trying since 2013 to get approval for a bitcoin-based ETF. The SEC has repeatedly denied applications, saying that crypto exchanges are too opaque to ascertain whether prices are reached fairly.

No mainstream securities exchange overseen by the SEC trades directly in bitcoins. However, several, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, trade bitcoin futures, which allow investors to bet on the direction of the cryptocurrency’s price without holding the volatile coins themselves. These contracts are transparent in price and easily traded in larger sizes, which may allow the SEC to get comfortable with an ETF owning them, backers say.

“All of us know it’s going to happen. The question is when,” said Tim Grant, head of European operations at cryptocurrency.

Analysts and investors say that bitcoin’s recent gains could reverse if any approved funds doesn’t see strong inflows, and that it is unclear how much pent-up demand there is among institutional investors. Those who want exposure to cryptocurrencies already have indirect ways to do so, such as buying shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc., which went public in April, or shares of several listed bitcoin-mining companies.

Bitcoin has been typically volatile this year. The price rose as high as $63,381 in April, according to Dow Jones Market Data, bolstered by Coinbase’s initial public offering. It then fell more than 50% through July, pulled down by souring sentiment, snarky tweets from Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk about the cryptocurrency, and China’s ban on bitcoin transactions.

It hit $60,327 early Friday, according to CoinDesk, bringing its gains this year to about 106%.

@RobAnybody Time to jump in!
So bitcoins are too volatile, but a leveraged security (which is inherently more volatile than the underlying asset) is OK?
 
Does anybody know enough about ETFs to be able to explain what exactly they are? From what I think I understand, instead of buying an asset, you are instead buying something.. that tracks the price of the asset? Or something like that?

@RobAnybody Time to jump in!

Watch out when you jump in during times of FOMO. The usual advice (that I have heard at least) is to be "greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy". So.. that would mean to buy when you hear lots of negative opinions about cryptocurrencies or bitcoin in the media.. and sell for some profits when people are being gready and buying in en masse because the price keeps going up.

Right now we're at like 97% of the all time bitcoin price, but.. it might not be a bad time to buy anyhow, due to this ETF announcement. I really have no idea, but a bunch of new money coming into the space could very well drive the price up.

The price was at like 50% of the all time high very recently, that would have obviously been the better time to get in - note that this is also when there was a lot of negative articles about cryptocurrencies in the media & people were preparing for a bear market. Seems to line up with the quoted advice above, but of course this space is so volatile that you can't rely on any prediction really.
 
Watch out when you jump in during times of FOMO. The usual advice (that I have heard at least) is to be "greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy". So.. that would mean to buy when you hear lots of negative opinions about cryptocurrencies or bitcoin in the media.. and sell for some profits when people are being gready and buying in en masse because the price keeps going up.

Right now we're at like 97% of the all time bitcoin price, but.. it might not be a bad time to buy anyhow, due to this ETF announcement. I really have no idea, but a bunch of new money coming into the space could very well drive the price up.

The price was at like 50% of the all time high very recently, that would have obviously been the better time to get in - note that this is also when there was a lot of negative articles about cryptocurrencies in the media & people were preparing for a bear market. Seems to line up with the quoted advice above, but of course this space is so volatile that you can't rely on any prediction really.
It's a gamble for sure. "You pays your money your take your chances!" :)

It it is a market top you are screwed. If the EFT drives it higher you are in luck. Smart folks know how to ride the volatility waves and make money both on the way up and on the way down. I'm not that smart. I do think that an EFT will will drive things up for a bit though.
 
The generation of an ETF is good for the underlying commodity, because it's a source of demand for that commodity.

An ETF is a bundle of an asset which is then sold off in pieces. If I had an ETF that contained 10 shares of IBM and 10 shares of Abbvie, it would be worth about $2550. If you wanted to buy 1% of my ETF, you'd buy it off of me for $25.50. The value of the ETF then very closely tracks the value of the shares it contains. Because the ETF literally buys those shares (and holds them), it creates demand for the underlying stock.

I'm not going to bore with the details, but shares of the ETF can be created and destroyed. New shares of IBM and Abbvie can get bought to create more shares of the ETF, or vis versa, the ETF shares can be dismantled to unwrap the underlying shares. But because the market value of a share of the ETF is $25.50, you're more likely to buy them that you would be to buy 1 share of IBM and 1 share of Abbvie for $255. This further allows demand.

Literally with some assets, you buy them hoping they get picked up in a popular ETF and then the resulting surge in demand allows you to sell. This is what's happening here. A bunch of people who'd never buy a specific crypto will put money in towards buying a basket, thinking that it's diversification.
 
Yes, I have no need/interest to trade frequently so Index funds work for me. I'll let the young and adventurous engage in crypto.
 
An ETF is a bundle of an asset which is then sold off in pieces. If I had an ETF that contained 10 shares of IBM and 10 shares of Abbvie, it would be worth about $2550. If you wanted to buy 1% of my ETF, you'd buy it off of me for $25.50. The value of the ETF then very closely tracks the value of the shares it contains. Because the ETF literally buys those shares (and holds them), it creates demand for the underlying stock.

Thanks for explaining all this. Let me ask this though.. In your example, why wouldn't you just buy the 10 shares of IBM and 10 shares of whatever? What benefit would there be in owning the ETF instead of the stocks themselves?
 
None. But it's a lot of work. Plus transaction fees.

It's an easy way to diversify

So essentially in the case of a bitcoin ETF, you are getting the ETF for convenience only? (since you're only getting 1 asset which doesn't seem diverse)

Is it really that hard to buy bitcoin? I guess in the case of the ETF the financial institution handles the wallet/exchange details and all that too.. Yeah, okay, I guess I get it (I think)
 
The bitcoin etf would be for convenience, but honestly I don't know. There might be something special about any specific fund, and I only purchase stock ETFs. The other variants are different in ways I've never looked into.

That said, in Canada I'd be able to buy the ETF in one of our tax shelters (TFSA or RRSP) and thus play the game without having to worry about taxes.

ETFs are a really big deal in personal finance these days, and you should definitely have them in your savings portfolio. I worry they're creating an Everything Bubble, so I'd not buy one of the mainstream ones once everyone knows they 'should'. But I definitely recommend that people consider sector based ones based on their own predictions of the future.

I have 29 positions in my TFSA, six of which are ETFs and 3 of which are mutual funds.
 
They're a reasonably established asset class, and actually really important in the current setup.

Theoretically, someone could sell mutual funds with nothing in them as well, but it would be difficult.
 
I can see a splendid opportunity for fraudsters to sell ETFs when they don't own the underlying assets.
In the US the SEC is a watchdog agency to oversee such matters. Some fraudsters slip through for a while.
 
Of all things they can check you would have thought owning bitcoin is one that is pretty easy to check. However since the whole point of bitcoin is to cut out the need for such middle men, I cannot see who would both think owning actual bitcoin is too hard and that it will go up in value.
 
They're a reasonably established asset class, and actually really important in the current setup.

Theoretically, someone could sell mutual funds with nothing in them as well, but it would be difficult.

In the US the SEC is a watchdog agency to oversee such matters. Some fraudsters slip through for a while.

Of all things they can check you would have thought owning bitcoin is one that is pretty easy to check. However since the whole point of bitcoin is to cut out the need for such middle men, I cannot see who would both think owning actual bitcoin is too hard and that it will go up in value.

Remember Bernie Maddoff

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Madoff

Remember CDO-Squared

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDO-Squared
 
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