The European Project: the future of the EU.
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It's hard to pinpoint a specific thing about the french economy. Our strengths are luxury items and tourism (compared to other countries), but as a percent of GDP it's not that significant. Our other strengths are transportation (airbus along with other EU countries, Alstom for trains) and energy. Also a few major banks, and a large construction industry. But even if one of those strengths were to have major issues, it wouldn't tank the french economy by much (except for banks, like everywhere else).
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@Joij21 i don't know about gdp, but this export graph seems to show things are not going so well for the french economy
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Deity
China.@Joij21 i don't know about gdp, but this export graph seems to show things are not going so well for the french economy
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Already advanced economies cannot maintain a fixed percentage of world trade, as long as developing nations are allowed to actually develop their economies, which means they produce for export.
Everyone would have had to agree to just kill China before its economic take-off to avoid this. Otoh it is why, on the aggregate global level, humanity has become less poor, healthier, better educated, living better lives generally than they did 3o years ago.
Of course, none of it directly benefits the US in the sense of direct remuneration. So, now there's Trump...
EnglishEdward
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I am in my own mind comparing the issues France has with those that the UK has.
Regarding many things, aging population and government deficits and the Trump,
there seem to be many similarities.
But there are some differences. The UK has its own currency. Technically France does not.
The UK has fallen into the trap of providing unwanted migrants with good quality hotel
accommodation, that merely encourages them to relocate from France, which has not.
The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has a Parliamentary majority, President Macron does not.
Regarding many things, aging population and government deficits and the Trump,
there seem to be many similarities.
But there are some differences. The UK has its own currency. Technically France does not.
The UK has fallen into the trap of providing unwanted migrants with good quality hotel
accommodation, that merely encourages them to relocate from France, which has not.
The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has a Parliamentary majority, President Macron does not.
EnglishEdward
Deity
That might be because many former eastern European countries were less developed
and have with western help managed to improve their position relative to France.
and have with western help managed to improve their position relative to France.
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you're right, but i meant to say western europe is not doing as bad as france
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same for northern europe
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The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab
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The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab
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Germany has pulled out all stops to maintain their export economy. The French have not, they are more geared towards their domestic economy. Italy looks very much the same on these graphs
The other aspect of relative decline of % of global trade over that kind of long-term graph, is that the EU has expanded, picking up all these post-Soviet, formerly Marxist-Leninist command-economies. and turning them around. So all of them (the Poles in particular) have grown like crazy in the last 30 years - so their % of global trade has gone up. These are not absolute figures, but relative %, being compared. The wealthier already established economies should be expected to show a relative decline, as new economies revved up.
The German export success as the engine of German economic growth is also the primary reason Trump has gotten stuck on the US having a trade deficit in good with the EU. Most of it is Germany, most of that is German cars.
The general problems re. efficiency and innovation – lack thereof – in the EU are otherwise laid out in the Draghi report and that landed a while back.
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if one looks at the big picture, it's amazing how much of an export powerhouse europe still is today in aggregate value
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The EU common market is a runaway success. It's just that it is being pointed out it could be quite a lot more productive and successful.if one looks at the big picture, it's amazing how much of an export powerhouse europe still is today in aggregate value
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How does France deal with asylum seekers? I know a lot of them go to tent cities in Calais but inevitably some of them most stay. Doesn’t it just create more problems if they’re out on the street? Or do they have something like homeless shelters?
Trump is on route to increase the US budget deficit this year, compared to last year. Since, according to you, not balancing the books is the 'root of the problem' - I wonder what's your opinion of Trump's fiscal policy?
Bonus question: all the billions that Trump is collecting in tariffs aka more sales taxes from American consumers and businesses, do you reckon he'll use those funds to pay off debts, or blow it on tax cuts to the wealthy, like himself?
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@EvaDK the us and fr are completely different beasts.
First, deficits and debt don't matter as much to the us, as stated previously:
First, deficits and debt don't matter as much to the us, as stated previously:
- france total tax to gdp ratio is above 45% while us's is only 27%, this matters a lot to money lenders since it means the us could theoretically pay back while fr simply can't without cutting state spending, which is near impossible when voters are hooked on state assistance.
- the us can print money at will without full inflationary consequences, since it screws dollar holding foreigners into susidizing the us. fr can't even print money any more.
The main reason for the french deficit skyrocketing these past few years (basically since Macron took office) is the lowering on taxes for the rich along with literally dozens and dozens of billions of tax exemptions or direct subsidies to companies (which is now around 200 billions a year, much higher than the deficit). Nothing to do with anything else.
Don't underestimate the european space agency (which isn't only sponsored by France), due of its cooperation with Airbus it's actually doing pretty well.
Don't underestimate the european space agency (which isn't only sponsored by France), due of its cooperation with Airbus it's actually doing pretty well.
Snowygerry
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And because it is decentralized it actually benefits most, unlike Space X that benefits mostly Musk himself.
The US system serves to concentrate wealth, the European system aims to distribute wealth. It is not dependent on whims of one individual, so it cannot easily be hijacked for political purposes.
Thorgalaeg
Deity
I agree about the need to change some things in Europe. I mean the meme about Musk making big rockets and such while we make non detachable caps. There some true there. Musk and his rockets are mostly anecdotical though, and US isnt doing much better than Europe in general. More relevant is the comparision with China. Don't know if it is an excess of regulations, bureaucracy or something deeper.
Akka
Moody old mage.
As I've said several times, this is actually the CAUSE for the problem, not the SOLUTION. Because it's just wishful thinking that is flatly the opposite of what happens in the real world.
Money for the poors means consumption, because they spend it for things they need.
Money for the richs means hoarding and concentration of wealth, because they don't need to spend it, they only invest in what makes them even more money.
As, again, I've said several times, France's deficit has been significantly worsened by this very mindset (called "ruissellement"/"trickle-down"). This is a BS economic theory from Reagan, which in the real world has never worked and only ever produced bad results (more wealth concentration, less tax revenues, often less growth). That it's still supported after 40 years of failure is down, I suppose, to the fact that it favors the wealthy and powerful, so they can use their clout to shove it down the throat of everyone else.
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