I decided to go over the map in detail now, and here are some of my conclusion/suggestions:
First of all, I warned you that all this fancy smanchy settler optimization goes right out the window as soon as the barbs show up, and thats whats happening now. We have only 2 archers
sadly both are not where they need to be and both are hurt and healing. Another barb is ready to wonder into our territory and pillage us. And its just a damn warrior for now, things will get much worse.
Now what
we got a settler ready to 2-pop whip in an optimal time and in fact it has just set us back more turns because we cant even move him for quite some time now as we dont have enough MP units (I knew we needed more of this!).
Anyhow, now the next person has to deal with this problem and whatever new ones will arise
What I want to get into now is our next city (when ever the hell we can get around to it!!).
I have marked a spot where I think we should place it. I already though of this spot over 2 turn-sets ago but didnt say anything because I felt we may find something further east of that gold. Unfortunately, nothing there is interesting. So I think we should settle here, and have it as a simple Auxiliary city. This is connected by river, will get future levee bonus, and can use the cows for growth and hammer production. Our capital pops borders in 7 turns, so get worker ready to improve that starting turn #7.
This city should work cows to grow while building obelisk first, then work gold second
and thirdly, work a mined plains-hill in the radius.
DO NOT try to do any more fancy-smachy optimal things like cottaging or farming any green tile and trying to grow it.. Useless!! We dont even have a god-damned granary. Production is the most important thing at this stage, leave the fancy stuff for later. Its fine to stagnate this city at growth of 3.
This 3-pop city will give us:
10c and 10h per turn. Thats good enough for an early auxiliary city. It will be a helper for many things. Even with 0 O.F. we can get:
Fast Worker - 6 turns
Archer - 2.5 Turns
Setter - 10 Turns.
Do not waste time with barracks, that cost 5 turns and we dont need it now. We really need protection, etc.
Go archers as soon as obelisk is done, and keep the petal to the metal with them until our needs are met, and then burn off 6 turns here or there to get another UU out there.
I think the second auxiliary city is pretty much standard. Bonus production hill and it can also borrow the cows at a later date. If it turns out there is another food by that plains/hill we can definitely borrow the cows when the time comes to turn it into our draft-whip factory. Also, if Toko decides to do a typical stupid dagger-mode, we may be able to get a high kill-ratio on that hill, letting us get peace before they send a REAL ARMY out to kill us easy.
Tech wise
I am not so sure on roads anymore. I think it is rather unfortunate that we did not start off with fishing in a way. Take a close look, our one hill is a double-riverside, which connects the two rivers which cover so much of our territory. I think it is well worth it to skip roads first, to get our river routes. This means we can get everything connected without roads, not just our cities, but also to Monte. We can already trade resources to Monte, but Id like to get commerce routes up as well.
Right now we only have one Worker, and we simply do not have the resources to build any more while we cant even keep up with frieken archers needed! Despite its 6 turns for wheel, but 4+10 turns for sailing, sailing still wins out because our worker has too many other things to do than have the luxury of building roads this whole time. We are in effect, trading off tech-time for free INVISIBLE roads.. These roads are actually un-pillagable as well. I think it wins outright and we need to keep being aware of thinking out-of-the-box. (as long as its not ridiculous like going after Stone-henge too!)
Our third city may be near the horses at top to block off the true north but it is too early to plan that in detail now, as we probably need to beeline down south to further get protection up. If Togo attacks, I sure hope its a weak Dagger so we actually have a chance to survive. So we should indeed look for decent plains-hills to settle on.