Religion
I'm in favour of switching to Hinduism too. Being spiritual, we can always change our mind without penalty if necessary, and the extra happiness is always welcome. Hinduism should give more + for our relationship with Monty than with Ragnar in the long run. I'm a little concerned that with Ragnar being the founder of Judaism he will shortly become -2 for religion. Surely this would take him down to annoyed unless we can get more pluses? I mean +1 years of peace, -1 base, -1 level and -2 religion equals -3 or annoyed. Presumably if Ragnar is annoyed and Monty is cautious then that would take the team average down to annoyed? Of course if we could get HR then that should keep Ragnar cautious, and with a little more diplo we could get the team to pleased. If they dow us in the mean time, forget all of the above...
Diplo
Is it worth meeting Willem/Churchill any earlier than we need to? It's unlikely they will like us, and trading with them will almost certainly anger Ragnar/Monty. Would it be possible to trade techs with Willem/Churchill without "traded with worst enemy" penalty if we can do exact trades once we have Currency (Bestsss)? I'm very concerned about Toku/Joao, it could be very tricky to get the team to pleased, and we seem like a natural target for them. So I would be in favour of trying to befriend Monty/Ragnar, a war on two fronts against 4 neighbouring AIs is just too much. Hopefully Monty/Ragnar will seal off Willem/Churchill, so if the two teams end up fighting we have the option of joining a phony war.
Settling
I think obsolete's proposed second site has merit. I'm a little concerned that we could lose the wheat if we settle on the hill, but I suspect that the defensive bonus could come in handy. The copper/rice site would be nice to claim soon too. It would be good to know where precisely Toku/Joao are located, so we can have an idea of the most likely area they would target in the event of a war, as we also plan to settle sites on the west. I see lots of Tundra to the south, hopefully Toku/Joao have been given junk land.
Tech
Writing next, I'm not sure what after that. As Duckweed mentions, we may need to do a fair amount of self research before we can potentially get any trades. Do we plan on heading for Monarchy soon? It should at least help diplo with Monty/Ragnar, and there may be an outside shot of getting Joao within striking distance of friendly (if we utilise trade relations), potentially averaging the team to pleased. On the way we could pick up monasteries and cheap temples. Another random thought... "if" we could do exact trades without diplo penalty, then perhaps we could head to Currency, and just maybe trade for Monarchy with Willem/Churchill (Alphabet+gold for example).