Kennigit
proud 2 boxer
post will be a tiny bit outdated since there have been a couple posts in between
I'm not sure why you think I say "effort is bad", or particularly such a biased spin "lawl reason is bad!". In fact, I say the opposite:
I was a ignorant townie in game 1 of 3 back then, but now I'm an ignorant townie in 3/3 games.
eh I still don't really think so. Sure there are some metagame things, but I mean assume that the games are independent (i.e. what we were told), I'm assuming probably 4 or 5 scum roles in each game? Hopefully the hosts didn't meta about "well takhisis's game will have more scum because there is a chance his scum will have died in the other games" or weighed it or something.
Because just saying 5 scum/30 each game or 4 scum/30:
P(A u B u C) with A, B, C as scum in game 1, 2, 3, P(A n B) = P(A)P(B) independent
with 5/30: 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 -3*(1/6)(1/6)+(1/6)^3 = 0.421
with 4/30: (4/30) + (4/30) + (4/30) - 3*(4/30)(4/30) + (4/30)^3 = 0.349
so I don't really care who I vote for as a townie in all 3 games, my odds are good enough.
I'll let the scum hunting in game 3 go to the scum in game 2 and game 1 who want to pretend they are town, where I only care about any scum and staying alive.
I'm not sure why you think I say "effort is bad", or particularly such a biased spin "lawl reason is bad!". In fact, I say the opposite:
woah nelly that may or may not be true. I need to start marking down the ones who pretend day 1 and day 2 are relatively wastes of time.
So many times scum love to pretend to be ignorant townies, like me. And knowledgeable townies like to pretend to be nonknowledgeable townies too ("oooh I got a mason partner? Yeah, I'm like all the townies, I know nothing")
I was a ignorant townie in game 1 of 3 back then, but now I'm an ignorant townie in 3/3 games.
eh I still don't really think so. Sure there are some metagame things, but I mean assume that the games are independent (i.e. what we were told), I'm assuming probably 4 or 5 scum roles in each game? Hopefully the hosts didn't meta about "well takhisis's game will have more scum because there is a chance his scum will have died in the other games" or weighed it or something.
Because just saying 5 scum/30 each game or 4 scum/30:
P(A u B u C) with A, B, C as scum in game 1, 2, 3, P(A n B) = P(A)P(B) independent
with 5/30: 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 -3*(1/6)(1/6)+(1/6)^3 = 0.421
with 4/30: (4/30) + (4/30) + (4/30) - 3*(4/30)(4/30) + (4/30)^3 = 0.349
so I don't really care who I vote for as a townie in all 3 games, my odds are good enough.
I'll let the scum hunting in game 3 go to the scum in game 2 and game 1 who want to pretend they are town, where I only care about any scum and staying alive.
)
