U.S. Presidential Election 2024 Part II: 象対ロバ

[Zardnaar]

Well some reactionaries hate her for the obvious reasons but she's earned some hate from the left over her support for a guy that she herself has said is facilitating a genocide

Sone lefties are purists. They don't like Biden for example. They claim Bernie was robbed. Bernie never has a majority.

Replacing Biden is difficult even if he was willing to go.

Republicans could play games around getting new name on ballots, existing funds are an issue, times a big issue.

And that's assuming there isn't a big messy fight at a contested convention. It's only been done once and they lost hard.

And other contenders aren't really polling any better.

 

[Zardnaar]

But it's not at all likely he'd be replaced by someone less facilitating of that genocide :/

Well if that person loses you've just handed the Election to Trump. Who will love Netanyahu.

At best a replacement will aim for a Ceasefire in Gaza. Average American voter provably doesn't give a crap about Gaza. I doubt it would break a top 5 list of concerns/issues.

Without looking I would bet cost of living or economy will be number 1 or close to it. American elections aren't won on foreign policy.

 

[Lexicus]

But it's not at all likely he'd be replaced by someone less facilitating of that genocide :/

That's certainly true. I'm not saying I myself dislike her - I understand that she's in a fairly difficult position wrt to this.

The other thing is that people just feel gaslit by Biden's defenders. Like, the position is that he is not up to the job (of campaigning) and will definitely lose. That in turn means that arguments about what follows after Biden steps down are almost beside the point.

 

[Birdjaguar]

If Biden drops out, Much of Trump's campaign rhetoric will go away.: age, Hunter Biden, Bidenomics, Biden using the DOJ, etc. He will need a whole new set of lies.

 

[Gori the Grey]

The writing is on the wall.

I'm going to use this as my pretext for saying something that has started gnawing at me.

I think Biden is being forced out. I even think there may be a coordinated effort to do so.

What makes me say that is that the one thing he can't easily overcome is determined public opposition of his own party. But that's what they're giving him. The bigwigs are not only going to him to sound him out on where he stands on things. They are publicly announcing that they are going to him to "sound him out on where he stands on things."

One of the clearest indicators is the Pelosi interview where she says "I support him whatever he decides." And the anchor says, "He just issued an emphatic and unambiguous statement saying that he's still in the race." And she says back "Well, whenever he comes to a decision, I'll support that decision." That tells you that there's only one decision that counts as a decision in her mind, and she's going to support him as soon as he makes that as his decision.

Add to that that each day a new fairly prominent D issues a statement calling on him to drop out: Schiff, Lofgren. The collective effect of this is for them to communicate to him, "we'll be happy with whatever you choose, so long as it is dropping out." It's not that there is a drip, drip that will eventually drive him out; it seems to me they are deliberately staging a drip drip to drive him out.

Whatever. Again, if they also have some collective resolution on who should be the replacement and how to effect the change smoothly and effectively, I'll happily vote for that person.

But as upset as some people are about the possibility that Biden's "inner circle" has "hidden" his limitations out of their personal desire to stay in the halls of power (and I don't discount that as a possibility), I think that what is presently happening with top Ds is nothing more than the reverse of that.

The top Ds, to pick up the opening metaphor, are deliberately and concertedly writing on the wall. They have worked out a plan whereby one of them will add his or her bit of graffiti each day.

God has numbered the days of your kingdom and brought it to an end. You have been weighed and found wanting.

 

[Samson]

I think Biden is being forced out. I even think there may be a coordinated effort to do so.

If there was NOT a coordinated effort, what would that look like? A bunch of the most important decision makers in the world, one the same team, trying to make one of the most consequential decisions ever, and they are not talking to each other about how to make what they want happen?

 

[Gori the Grey]

It could look exactly like this (except for the Pelosi part): each person soberly pondering the gravity of the situation and when he or she reaches the end of those ruminations, announcing their view.

 

[Voidwalkin]

It's not that there is a drip, drip that will eventually drive him out; it seems to me they are deliberately staging a drip drip to drive him out.

There are two ways to interpret that
A: deliberate effort, orchestrated by the powerful
B: Biden is worse than we've seen, and those most familiar are moving because they see it'll make even the best efforts impossible

I think it's B triggering A. It's senior figures, campaign staff, EU diplomats, and even the likes of George Clooney saying he's fallen too far. These are people with the most proximity and most information from which to judge. He's an incumbent with a half-decent economy(especially if you ignore CoL). I don't think something like this comes without genuine alarm.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Yeah, I was actually going to add to the "Whatever" in my post that this group of people sees him more regularly and is better positioned to judge how rare/common a thing his blanking out like he did in the debate is.

 

[Crezth]

AOC is against changing the candidate now (for a number of reasons).
Says that this discussion should had happened many months ago.

Don't read the comments, btw. Why do some people hate her so much?

yeah, as zardnaar says, she’s a brown woman and should shut up.

 

[Sommerswerd]

It's probably right that gloating over the assassination or saying Trump had it coming would be politically damaging (potentially a lot) but imo Rashida Tlaib did the right thing in saying nothing about it at all.

Well Its not "gloating" to hold Trump accountable for the environment of political violence that he himself openly encouraged and, fostered... but sure, if anyone was going to call him on it, Tlalib was the one to do it... but to your point... why on Earth would she fall on that sword? All she ever gets in return for speaking truth to power is an endless stream of scorn. She's probably weary of carrying that water... AOC probably is too.

Bowman just lost largely because of his outspoken, uncompromiaing opposition to Israel's invasion of Gaza. Tlaib and AOC aren't oblivious to that.

I think that AOC backing Biden and/or opposing/ expressing skepticism about replacing Biden is partly that she recognizes Biden has been overall relatively friendly and beneficial to progressive causes, and partly a reflection of her balancing activism with pragmatism. If Biden loses, AOC can run in 2028. If Biden wins, she has earned a powerful ally. Harris or Newsom winning accomplishes none of these.

 

[Voidwalkin]

AOC is against changing the candidate now (for a number of reasons).
Says that this discussion should had happened many months ago.

Don't read the comments, btw. Why do some people hate her so much?

She could be briefer. That took way too long to watch, and I appreciate stuffy political discussion.

She just advocates change in social attitudes large swathes of the country don't like. It's just standard culture war. Main engine of our politics post-Iraq, really.

 

[Gori the Grey]

You get a person who wasn't chosen by the voters in the primaries.
*You get a person with his or her own strengths and weaknesses. Maybe it's Harris and the CEO of Netflix says, "Nah, I don't like her either." Then what have you gained by trying to appease that donor?
*You get disunity (from everyone who would have preferred someone else).
You get the impression of chaos as you scramble to make it happen.
*You may not get on the ballot in all states, with the Rs legal ratf***ery.

I feel as though she took twelve minutes to say three of the five things I said in this post, yesterday.

Not to toot my own horn. I'm just agreeing with you, Void.

 

[Crezth]

She just advocates change in social attitudes large swathes of the country don't like. It's just standard culture war. Main engine of our politics post-Iraq, really.

she also is brown, and large swathes of the country are not okay with that either. Which is just obvious. I have two adopted cousins from Guatemala because my uncle and aunt had trouble having kids. Boy I tell ya, those cousins ain’t considered “welcome” to the ol ancestral family home, hohoho! No but seriously we have to keep a close eye on them when they visit the country.

 

[Voidwalkin]

she also is brown, and large swathes of the country are not okay with that either. Which is just obvious. I have two adopted cousins from Guatemala because my uncle and aunt had trouble having kids. Boy I tell ya, those cousins ain’t considered “welcome” to the ol ancestral family home, hohoho! No but seriously we have to keep a close eye on them when they visit the country.

Where is the ancestral home?

 

[Joij21]

Where is the ancestral home?

Some mountainous swamp.

 

[Crezth]

Where is the ancestral home?

Not far off the place ol JD Vance hails from, but no less flat. Incidentally, I find it rather funny he's become a picture boy of Appalachia. I always thought where he and I was from was not quite like, say, Athens, even if we grew up in the foothills. I think he may romanticize Kentucky, as quite a few folks thereabouts do. But Kentucky is even more differenter than Cincy-Dayton suburban strip folks reckon. It's perhaps another situation where the idea is the really important thing.

Some mountainous swamp.

It's actually a swampy mountain, [snip]

Moderator Action: Edited by Birdjaguar

 

[Voidwalkin]

I always thought where he and I was from was not quite like, say, Athens, even if we grew up in the foothills

Athens is the nice part of Southeast Ohio. Ohio U campus. The rest of it is poorer, without any gem distract to the eye from those poverty faded Cleveland Indians windbreakers you'll still see every so often.

I'm from a little north of there. Where you're from is Dixie to me. Racism is less prevalent here. The idea that race is a core component of community is seems woven into the culture in the South, but as you go north, opposition to AoC is more values-based than prejudice imo. The neighborhood I grew up in went from 99% white to roughly 65% Hispanic, almost entirely from Guatemala, and I honestly never saw any racism about it either publicly or privately.

 

[Crezth]

Athens is the nice part of Southeast Ohio. Ohio U campus. The rest of it is poorer, without any gem distract to the eye from those poverty faded Cleveland Indians windbreakers you'll still see every so often.

I'm from a little north of there. Where you're from is Dixie to me. Racism is less prevalent here. The idea that race is a core component of community is seems woven into the culture in the South, but as you go north, opposition to AoC is more values-based than prejudice imo. The neighborhood I grew up in went from 99% white to roughly 65% Hispanic, almost entirely from Guatemala, and I honestly never saw any racism about it either publicly or privately.

I find this very interesting.

 

[danjuno]

I refuse to believe such a place as Ohio exists.