Gelion said:
It seems as though Britain and US are "considering an option of a strike against Iran" if it doesn't stop enriching Uranium. To me this situation is one mistake away from war.
In your view:
- How would the war with Iran take place? When?
- What would be its conseuences in the short or long run?
Discuss.
1) 2007 - US airforce makes a surprise strike against Iranian nuclear facilities and military forces
2) Iran closes Persian Gulf and several US ships are sinked. Closed Persian Gulf = 1/4 of daily oil production is out.
3) Massive Shia uprising in southern Iraq, insurgents are supplied with heavy weapons from Iran.
4) Iranian missiles hit US bases in the region and, of course, Israel. Israeli government threatens retaliation.
5) China and Russia demand cease-fire, China is hardly hit by the oil price surge. Chinese government, dependant on good results of Chinese economy, is becoming wary.
6) US starts a military campaign in Hormuz straits in order to re-open Persian Gulf for oil tankers. Despite some success, traveling through the Straits is still too dangerous and oil prices continue to rise.
7) US gov. is under heavy pressure to end the war. Western allies and China need oil, US public is fed up with heavy casaulties. Russia is happy, because it can now sell oil for three times as much as it used to before the war. Of course, both China and Russia continue to supply Iran with weapons.
8) Cease-fire.
Results:
- Iranian nuclear program seriously damaged.
- Iranian military undefeated.
- Iranian influence in the region higher.
- US influence in the region lower.
- US popularity in the world - destroyed.
- Iranian control over the Hormuz Straits - unchallenged.
- Iraq in civil war.
- Russian power bigger.
- Chinese power bigger.
- Western power lower.
- Casaulties very high.
...
List goes on. The war would be a marginal military victory, but decisive political defeat for the United States. Iran would suffer heavy casaulties, but its power and influence in the region would rise.
Recommendations: don't start war with Iran, focus on anti-missile defense instead.