[RD] What happens if nuclear technology becomes public?

[Mouthwash]

Scenario: a well-trafficked webpage is hacked and replaced with a page detailing the exact process for nuclear enrichment. The page remains accessible for several hours before the US government realizes what is happening. By the time they take it down, it is far too late.

What happens as a result of this? You can safely assume that every government on Earth has the information, and that it has been passed onto the deep web and recorded by millions of independent observers.

 

[Lexicus]

I mean, I don't think much changes.

 

[Mouthwash]

I mean, I don't think much changes.

"Okay, every terrorist group in the world, please kindly refrain from using this information."

Suspect that's not how it's going to go.

 

[Lexicus]

I don't think the main impediment to terrorists enriching uranium is that they don't know how.

 

[Mouthwash]

I don't think the main impediment to terrorists enriching uranium is that they don't know how.

The Taliban used to have fighter jets. ISIS took over an area the size of Syria. I'm sure some groups will have the resources.

 

[Lexicus]

@Timsup2nothin help me out here

 

[inthesomeday]

One can only hope the western world would become a Posadist ashtray but it seems terribly unlikely considering they’re the only ones who might be dumb enough to facilitate nukes for terrorists

 

[Timsup2nothin]

There might be some sort of technology that would make this kind of information release a concern, but nuclear enrichment ain't it. The process is simple, and well known to anyone who wants to know it. Getting or building the equipment is hard, and getting or building the equipment without someone noticing is impossible, but the process isn't really a secret.

 

[Mouthwash]

There might be some sort of technology that would make this kind of information release a concern, but nuclear enrichment ain't it. The process is simple, and well known to anyone who wants to know it. Getting or building the equipment is hard, and getting or building the equipment without someone noticing is impossible, but the process isn't really a secret.

Really? I thought the whole Iran scare was about them figuring out how to enrich uranium.

 

[Lexicus]

Really? I thought the whole Iran scare was about them figuring out how to enrich uranium.

No. It was basically that they might start enriching uranium. At a certain level of physics knowledge you can derive everything you need to figure out how to enrich uranium. That level of knowledge is wayyyy behind the cutting edge of the field today.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Really? I thought the whole Iran scare was about them figuring out how to enrich uranium.

It was about them building centrifuges. They know how to enrich uranium, and have known for probably as long as anyone. Consider, I know how to detonate a naval propulsion reactor, but no one is concerned about the possibility of me doing it since I don't have one.

 

[red_elk]

"Okay, every terrorist group in the world, please kindly refrain from using this information."

Suspect that's not how it's going to go.

They would also need huge amount of resources and money, thousands of skilled workers, engineers and complex facilities.
Which will be bombed by Israel next week after they start enrichment.

 

[Synobun]

The biggest hurdle is hardware, not knowledge. A particularly inquisitive child can figure out how to make an a-bomb for their school's science fair.

Now, if you were to release documents explaining exactly how to build and operate that hardware with locally-sourced materials... that would be problematic.

 

[inthesomeday]

To be fair to Mouthwash I don’t think this thread’s question was actually about the specific technical knowledge but rather the technology itself, as the title implies; so a better question for the OP is just literally “what if nuclear technology became public?”

 

[El_Machinae]

A software package that allowed me to 3D print a jury-rigged uranium enrichment machine and a reactor.

What would need to happen is a massive (massive) clampdown on fissile fuels. And there are too many tinpot locations that could self-finance such mining operations.

The result would be very similar to an ISIS parliamentary debate. Everyone is very polite until the first bomb vest goes off, and then it's mayhem.

 

[Mouthwash]

There might be some sort of technology that would make this kind of information release a concern, but nuclear enrichment ain't it. The process is simple, and well known to anyone who wants to know it. Getting or building the equipment is hard, and getting or building the equipment without someone noticing is impossible, but the process isn't really a secret.

No. It was basically that they might start enriching uranium. At a certain level of physics knowledge you can derive everything you need to figure out how to enrich uranium. That level of knowledge is wayyyy behind the cutting edge of the field today.

I knew that countries like South Korea and Japan could easily develop nukes if they wanted to (they're called "nuclear latency states"), but I assumed that Iran and North Korea had really backwards physics programs. I mean, countries are BIG. You're telling me they couldn't disguise the nuke production center as something innocuous in a sparsely populated corner of the country?

A software package that allowed me to 3D print a jury-rigged uranium enrichment machine and a reactor.

Yeah, let's assume it's this.

 

[Lexicus]

You're telling me they couldn't disguise the nuke production center as something innocuous in some irrelevant corner of the country?

I would be immensely surprised if they were able to.

 

[Mouthwash]

I would be immensely surprised if they were able to.

Why? Heck, why not just repurpose a missile construction facility or something?

 

[Synobun]

To properly obscure development of advanced hardware, you need an extensive enough supply line. The countries that are on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons don't possess those. This limits the available avenues of acquiring the resources they need to construct the hardware and gain access to the material itself.

Along with this, there are limited locations available for testing the yields of this hardware. Even if they could obscure the location of where they were developing the weapon, they could not obscure the testing location. And once they test it, espionage networks could trace it back to point of origin or at least the paths used to deliver the weapon to the testing location.

Of course, that's the truth mostly because availability of knowledge scaled up at about the same time our surveillance technology scaled up. This would be a far different story if espionage still had the limitations of the 19th and 20th centuries. But now, all it takes is one satellite and some basic geological equipment to keep a basic eye on things.

 

[Silurian]

A large facility would be detected one way or another.


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/...oses-nuclear-activity-wherever-its-happening/