Louis XXIV
Le Roi Soleil
The capital of Prussia already belongs to another civ, although I forget which one.
ETA: Beaten to it without sarcasm on his part.
ETA: Beaten to it without sarcasm on his part.
What is that violet-white civ on the mini map down there?
- Thread starter Piruparka
- Start date
XboxAddict77
Wonder Spammer
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2013
- Messages
- 261
EDIT off topic
VermelhoRed
Prince
The trade route mechanic is rich enough to allow many civilizations that feature it as their UA. Is Austria bad because Greece and Siam already hog city-states? There are many ways to make an unique and interesting trade UA that doesn't shock with either Portugal or Morocco. Or maybe Venice won't even have a trade UA, but something completely different, who knows?
Arachnofiend
Perturbed Pugilist
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2012
- Messages
- 1,950
Venice should have a diplo UA, Dandolo's wheeling and dealing allowed him to rob the rest of the western world blinder than he is. I still say Glassblower UB is the best way to represent their trade empire without clashing with other civs.
poom3619
Ping Pang Poom!
"Prostitute on Patriarch's Seat LOL"
When Venice conquered a holy city, any civ that's followed the religion (more than half is religion's follower) will lose half of their faith to Venice and Venice gain 33% tourism bonus with them.
Okay, this this is where I've gotten upto on the colour analysis. For the colours I'll be working in RGB (Red-Green-Blue) values for simplicity sake. The colours used on the Venetian Flag from Wikipedia (that is, the scalable vector graphics form of it) that are being checked against here are <R,G,B>:
Wikivenetian Purple: <102,34,162>
Wikivenetian Cream: <253 254 219>
We expect from any jpg version of an in game screenshot to see some issues with colours due to compression, that is, that the colour will be off by a few values and change depending on how it's been compressed. There is also potential for the initial colours to be slightly off the above given values if the colour source was not SVG version, but instead another version produced from the SVG. For the sake of this analysis the origin of the error will be largely ignored, instead the variation from the SVG's colours will be used to attempt to find a "colour volume" that is considered within error from what we have seen. It is important to remember that as we do not have the large solid coloured regions for the cream that we have for the purple it will be more susceptible to systematic errors.
From the given image 10 samples of each colour have been taken at random from regions that are considered to not be boarders. The reason to avoid the borders is due to compression effects having the largest effects here. From these we get average values of:
Unknown Purple: <102,34,163>
Unknown Cream: <254,254,216>
With values in the range:
Unknown Purple: <100-104,32-36,160-164>
Unknown Cream: <254-255, 252-255, 214-218>
From the values taken we can also find how "far" from the colours expected from taking them directly from the Venetian Flag from wikipedia they actually are. The average "error length", that is, the average number off the expected value the colours is 1.03 for the purple and 1.93 for the cream (owing largely to the blue being 3 less on average for the sample space) with standard deviations of 0.91 and 1.36. We can treat these values as the basis of an "error volume" for the colours, or basically, a way of expressing the amount of error and how many colours from our RGB colour space (which has 256³=16,777,216 colours in total). In the simplest terms, if the error volume is 10, then we then consider there to be 1,677,722 unique colours on offer here instead of the usual 16,777,216. For this case the volumes are error lengths multiplied by 2 all cubed. In this case it is multiplied by two as to account for either positive or negative error on the colour.
Unknown Purple: 8.83 colours
Unknown Cream: 57.8 colours
Whilst these are the values that should be used, for the sake of avoiding people complaining about any kind of bias, instead of these, we'll use the values + 5 standard deviations (that is, taking the most extreme of cases, 99.99994% confidence), giving ridiculously oversized error volumes of:
Unknown Purple: 1401 colours
Unknown Cream: 5371 colours
Make no mistake, using those is a ridiculous overestimate of the error. Just how ridiculous? Here are some diagrams I've made. These are 5 by 5 grids with randomly chosen colours within colour volumes of the given "colour volume":
8:
16:
64:
1401:
5371:
The last two being the level of error we'll use to calculate from here on. For the sake of comparison, here are the 9 randomly taken samples from the given image:
So now that we have that we then need to figure out how many purples there are in the RGB representation of colours that we're using.
Now, this next part is tricky. Really tricky in fact. Essentially though I'm trying to define how much of the available 16,777,216 colours on offer are "purple" and how much is "cream" as such. The problem is what people would define as what on these. I do have a way of calculating this, but it's highly subjective and to be honest, it the overall size will vary from person to person. I got 4.72% for purples and 1.61% for creams, but for the sake of argument let's take lower estimates of 1% and 0.25% for them.
Here is the fun part, so now we have taken care of small differences caused by compression and we have underestimates of how many colours would fall within these regions. As such we can calculate that there had, in terms of unique colours to choose from:
Purples: 565
Creams: 8
As such, from choose from those two samples, we have a probability of 1 in 4520 that they'd just so happen to pick those two colours. That is of course a massive underestimation. Taking my own values for the colours as well as the original values found for the error volumes gives 1 in 419,166,106, but for these purposes the massive massive underestimation is probably better.
So there you have it, taking all that into account, the odds of them picking those colours by chance are at the very least 1 in 4520, or roughly the odds of flipping 12 heads in a row on a coin.
There is still one question remaining though, which is why those are the colours on Wikipedia's flag. I get the impression that the person who produced got the colours after trying to clean up the source flag by making the red on it the same colour as what Venetian Red should be, then took the colours for other areas of the flag from that. However, without actually knowing the methodology used I can't be sure. What is certain though is that they are very specific colours, and not the kind of colours you'd see as generics in a program. It would be nice to know exactly how it was done though.
In any case, Venice is about as confirmed as it's getting without them actually announcing them. Between this, Riga almost certainly replacing Venice and the lack of other viable European options that haven't been ruled out it seems that Venice is indeed in.
Wikivenetian Purple: <102,34,162>
Wikivenetian Cream: <253 254 219>
We expect from any jpg version of an in game screenshot to see some issues with colours due to compression, that is, that the colour will be off by a few values and change depending on how it's been compressed. There is also potential for the initial colours to be slightly off the above given values if the colour source was not SVG version, but instead another version produced from the SVG. For the sake of this analysis the origin of the error will be largely ignored, instead the variation from the SVG's colours will be used to attempt to find a "colour volume" that is considered within error from what we have seen. It is important to remember that as we do not have the large solid coloured regions for the cream that we have for the purple it will be more susceptible to systematic errors.
From the given image 10 samples of each colour have been taken at random from regions that are considered to not be boarders. The reason to avoid the borders is due to compression effects having the largest effects here. From these we get average values of:
Unknown Purple: <102,34,163>
Unknown Cream: <254,254,216>
With values in the range:
Unknown Purple: <100-104,32-36,160-164>
Unknown Cream: <254-255, 252-255, 214-218>
From the values taken we can also find how "far" from the colours expected from taking them directly from the Venetian Flag from wikipedia they actually are. The average "error length", that is, the average number off the expected value the colours is 1.03 for the purple and 1.93 for the cream (owing largely to the blue being 3 less on average for the sample space) with standard deviations of 0.91 and 1.36. We can treat these values as the basis of an "error volume" for the colours, or basically, a way of expressing the amount of error and how many colours from our RGB colour space (which has 256³=16,777,216 colours in total). In the simplest terms, if the error volume is 10, then we then consider there to be 1,677,722 unique colours on offer here instead of the usual 16,777,216. For this case the volumes are error lengths multiplied by 2 all cubed. In this case it is multiplied by two as to account for either positive or negative error on the colour.
Unknown Purple: 8.83 colours
Unknown Cream: 57.8 colours
Whilst these are the values that should be used, for the sake of avoiding people complaining about any kind of bias, instead of these, we'll use the values + 5 standard deviations (that is, taking the most extreme of cases, 99.99994% confidence), giving ridiculously oversized error volumes of:
Unknown Purple: 1401 colours
Unknown Cream: 5371 colours
Make no mistake, using those is a ridiculous overestimate of the error. Just how ridiculous? Here are some diagrams I've made. These are 5 by 5 grids with randomly chosen colours within colour volumes of the given "colour volume":
8:
16:
64:
1401:
5371:
The last two being the level of error we'll use to calculate from here on. For the sake of comparison, here are the 9 randomly taken samples from the given image:
So now that we have that we then need to figure out how many purples there are in the RGB representation of colours that we're using.
Now, this next part is tricky. Really tricky in fact. Essentially though I'm trying to define how much of the available 16,777,216 colours on offer are "purple" and how much is "cream" as such. The problem is what people would define as what on these. I do have a way of calculating this, but it's highly subjective and to be honest, it the overall size will vary from person to person. I got 4.72% for purples and 1.61% for creams, but for the sake of argument let's take lower estimates of 1% and 0.25% for them.
Here is the fun part, so now we have taken care of small differences caused by compression and we have underestimates of how many colours would fall within these regions. As such we can calculate that there had, in terms of unique colours to choose from:
Purples: 565
Creams: 8
As such, from choose from those two samples, we have a probability of 1 in 4520 that they'd just so happen to pick those two colours. That is of course a massive underestimation. Taking my own values for the colours as well as the original values found for the error volumes gives 1 in 419,166,106, but for these purposes the massive massive underestimation is probably better.
So there you have it, taking all that into account, the odds of them picking those colours by chance are at the very least 1 in 4520, or roughly the odds of flipping 12 heads in a row on a coin.
There is still one question remaining though, which is why those are the colours on Wikipedia's flag. I get the impression that the person who produced got the colours after trying to clean up the source flag by making the red on it the same colour as what Venetian Red should be, then took the colours for other areas of the flag from that. However, without actually knowing the methodology used I can't be sure. What is certain though is that they are very specific colours, and not the kind of colours you'd see as generics in a program. It would be nice to know exactly how it was done though.
In any case, Venice is about as confirmed as it's getting without them actually announcing them. Between this, Riga almost certainly replacing Venice and the lack of other viable European options that haven't been ruled out it seems that Venice is indeed in.
- Joined
- Aug 12, 2010
- Messages
- 18,949
Wikivenetian Cream is my new band name.
Wikivenetian actually rolls off the tongue.Joe Hoofer
Chieftain
It sounds like a flavor of gelato.
...circumstantial?! Unless you can come up with another explanation of where they got the colours from, then there's at the very best a 1 in 4520 that they picked them by chance and it's probably more like 1 in 419,166,106.
Let's take another angle though. Maybe it's all just been by chance that new city states haven't been given used colour-type combinations, or new city states haven't been given colour-type combinations of city states that have been changed in type. Maybe, who knows. It's a strange world after all. Now, we've had 5 city states change type, none of which had a new city state replace their former colour-type combination.
Now there's a way of looking at this. If we assume that they give city states only colour-type combinations that are unused (and if they don't, as they've added of the order of 20-30ish new city states without handing out a used colour-type combination [except in the case that it has been a replacement], it would be very odd to say the least and so unlikely that it isn't really worth discussing right now). Now, the types of the 5 were Maritime (2), Cultured (2) and Militaristic. With 5 new additions in Brave New World (excluding the replacement city states Bratislava and Panama City for the time being) and 8 from Gods & Kings (again, excluding the replacements), that makes 13 city states not taking any of the at least 5 places from city states that had their type changed when the new Mercantile and Religious types were brought in for Gods & Kings. This would suggest that the odds that this behaviour is just a statistical effect are at best in the 1 in 14 range (say for example Riga is just a new city state, and not a replacement for Venice).
So now we have a case where the odds of Venice not being replaced of at best, 1 in 14 and odds of the colours for the new civ not being from Venice's flag on wikipedia at best at around 1 in 4520. Before taking into account that there is still a European civ to come and that pretty much all the other options have been ruled out, this gives us odds of at best a 1 in 63,280 that Venice is not in. That's 0.0000158% chance that neither of the remaining civs is Venice. That's 4.32σ, that's nearly enough for a publication, and that's a vast vast underestimate.
cybrxkhan
Asian Xwedodah
While Venice is not "officially" "confirmed", the evidence is way, way, way too much in Venice's favor at this point.
Hannibal XIII
Warlord
- Joined
- Jun 11, 2008
- Messages
- 149
'Tis most certainly Venice at this point.
And for achievement: The Blind Man is King (as in the land of the blind...)
And for achievement: The Blind Man is King (as in the land of the blind...)
People keep dogs as pets
I have a pet
Dogs have 4 legs
My pet has 4 legs
Dogs like to walk with you
My pet likes to walk next to me down the street
Dogs like to chase a ball
My pet likes to chase a ball
Therefore based on the evidence I have a dog .... now why my dog wants to eat cat food is a mystery to me.
The evidence for Venice is circumstantial
"Circumstantial evidence is evidence in which an inference is required to connect it to a conclusion of fact, like a fingerprint at the scene of a crime. By contrast, direct evidence supports the truth of an assertion directly—i.e., without need for any additional evidence or the intervening inference. On its own, it is the nature of circumstantial evidence for more than one explanation to still be possible."
All the evidence for Venice is assumptions and analysis of preexisting patterns. Are there other explanations or possibilities for each element - yes.
Do I think the weight of circumstantial evidence means Venice is in - you betcha. However there are plausible alternatives. I think the chances are no better than 10% for all those alternative Euro civs combined but people need to accept that as good as the colour and CS replacement theories are they rely inherently on assumptions.
In general the simplest explanation is usually the correct one - in this case that is Venice is a civ but until we see something like a Lion of St Mark, a canal on a marsh tile or something else clearly Venetian in nature we really need to accept that there still is a remote chance of a different choice appearing out of left field.
I have a pet
Dogs have 4 legs
My pet has 4 legs
Dogs like to walk with you
My pet likes to walk next to me down the street
Dogs like to chase a ball
My pet likes to chase a ball
Therefore based on the evidence I have a dog .... now why my dog wants to eat cat food is a mystery to me.
The evidence for Venice is circumstantial
"Circumstantial evidence is evidence in which an inference is required to connect it to a conclusion of fact, like a fingerprint at the scene of a crime. By contrast, direct evidence supports the truth of an assertion directly—i.e., without need for any additional evidence or the intervening inference. On its own, it is the nature of circumstantial evidence for more than one explanation to still be possible."
All the evidence for Venice is assumptions and analysis of preexisting patterns. Are there other explanations or possibilities for each element - yes.
Do I think the weight of circumstantial evidence means Venice is in - you betcha. However there are plausible alternatives. I think the chances are no better than 10% for all those alternative Euro civs combined but people need to accept that as good as the colour and CS replacement theories are they rely inherently on assumptions.
In general the simplest explanation is usually the correct one - in this case that is Venice is a civ but until we see something like a Lion of St Mark, a canal on a marsh tile or something else clearly Venetian in nature we really need to accept that there still is a remote chance of a different choice appearing out of left field.
VermelhoRed
Prince
ImperialChaos
President
I have literally learned more about the color purple than I will ever need to know.
That is not even remotely like was presented, and is nothing more than a ridiculous straw man that shows how limited your attempt at actually understanding the logic in the post was.
A better analogy would be that I have two creatures which have fur, two pointy ears, a four legs, make a "meow" noise, have a rough tongue and look and act in every way that I can possibly find like they are cats. For all the evidence we have they are exactly like cats, and we've ruled out pretty much every other possibility. There is still however, the small chance that they could in fact be something that is exactly like a cat, but not a cat. The chance is extremely small, but there is still a chance. Sadly that doesn't sound as convincing as the strawman you presented.
You say there are other explanation. Go ahead. Some evidence to go with any would be nice, but for a start some other credible explanations that haven't been ruled out would be nice. I've given you a full analysis of everything we know, and unless other alternative explanations can be offered, the chances of it not being Venice based on current evidence is less than 1 in 63,280 (considerably less actually. That takes into the possibility that it has been only by chance that we haven't seen a city state take the colour-type combination of a "changed" city state and that they just happened to pick the same (or within compression error) colours as are on the Venetian Flag as on wikipedia. If you feel there are other viable explanations, go right ahead.
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