The JCPOA was doing its job - providing sanctions relief and a framework for IAEA inspection to satisfy the P5+1 that Iran was not stockpiling materials for nuclear weapons and their nuclear program was consistent with a civilian nuclear program. The US security services and the security services of the other members of the P5+1 were in agreement that Iran was not pursuing a military nuclear program and were cooperating with the IAEA. Even now, Iran has stated -and the IAEA has not stated contrary- that they are still in compliance with the agreement but should sanctions not be lifted they would be in breach of the limits of the amount/enrichment level of uranium under the JCPOA. (Please note that even if Iran breaches the level, they would still be well away from 'rush capacity' for a nuclear weapon. That was one of the big sticking points in the JCPOA - where exactly the 'rush capacity' for a nuclear weapon was.)
I trust what officials in the US, IAEA, and Iran itself say about Iran's compliance just as much as I trusted them with regard to Kim Jong Il's compliance during the 90s and 00s. On the outside we have no real idea at all. Iran gets a bimonthly inspection of their existing military sites, everyone involved has particular, easily surmised motivations to say that they are compliant, and so it goes. And this is supposedly sufficient to verify that they are not developing nuclear weapons. Not that we should trust the Israeli intel people more than the rest, but they presented a huge surveillance data dump in 2018 to the effect that Iran had been flagrantly violating the deal.
While these hamfisted inspections are going on, our own government conducts a two year investigation of Trump with every possible level of media support and assistance, and are unable to find that Trump colluded with the Russians. Yet people still just
know the silver bullet is out there. Such selective cynicism.
The most LOL part of what transpired during this Iran deal was the obsession of Iran, which sits on fossil fuel reserves that would be effectively unlimited for their own needs, with contracting with the Russians for
nuclear power plants. Gosh, that's such admirable common sense and obviously not suspicious at all and could not possibly have an ulterior purpose.
There are factions in the Iranian government that might be happy with a war but there are factions that just want normalized relations.The Iran deal wasn't particularly strong but it did bolster the non-aggressive factions in their government. They were able to go back to their people and say, "see? The West can be worked with. We can now rebuild our economy."
I can understand that, but I'm afraid to say that Trump has sold me most of the way on the idea that "normalized relations" was basically the US being screwed logistically and/or financially, with the Iran deal being one of the most decadent examples.
OTOH, one thing I haven't been sold on, and never will be, is the efficacy of sanctions. Their unintended effects more than offset the leverage Washington thinks it's getting. It's just another example of how stupid the State Department really has been, for years and years. And you guys like their deal. It's cracked.
The deal was made. Doesn't matter what we think about it retroactively. Tearing it up makes a pact with the U.S. as fickle as our elections. It doesn't matter if some people think it was weak, it was better than what we have now. What we have now is a situation where we're very likely to waste trillions and thousands upon thousands of lives on another war that even if we win won't benefit the American people and won't make them one iota safer.
The deal wasn't made, though.
The US did not make the deal. Obama's administration did. The constitution requires treaties to go through Congress, one effect of which is prevent exactly what you have complained about here: the fickleness of elections, because it is much harder to repeal laws than it is to just stop upholding your predecessor's unauthorized deals. Another effect of this stricture is to prevent the US from making these bad deals. The Iran deal would not have gotten through the Senate. If it were good but the Republicans held out on it, McCain would have assembled another Gang of 8 and gotten it through, but he didn't. Because it was a bad deal.
