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Where do we go from here?

That's subjective. Can you offer an objective reason why we should "dismantle the suburbs"?
Suburbs are a drain on our progress, and so dismantling them (obviously in a gentle or voluntary fashion) is superior. They have a huge economic and environmental cost; 50 minutes of driving each day impacts us with regards to: the price of fuel, the output of pollutants, the cost of road infrastructure, potentially lost productivity time, and increased stress on the workforce (many people find driving stressful or unpleasant).

These all have negatively impacted our growth, as well as consuming non-renewables that have opportunity cost. I too am concern about biodiversity, but won't touch that here.

These negatives can be reduced by many options: carpooling, more efficient vehicles, taking the bus, turning driving-time into productive time(I recommend audio learning, personally), and reducing the stress associated with driving. People can even combine these.
We need to increase productivity (the amount of utility gained from labor). This is accomplished through technology and capital.
Exactly, we should also reduce inefficiencies. As well, we all have resources that can be invested instead of consumed: our 'wealth' can vary, and so can the 'investment'. But often there are opportunity costs to our decadent lifestyles. ESPECIALLY over the longer timescales

Well, I agree with you. But... why exactly do we want to do this? I'm not entirely certain, myself, except that I seem to have Manifest Destiny built into me...

Well, if the probability ET existing is not zero, then eventually we will run into competition with ET (with increased probability over time). The more advanced we are, the further away (in time) this competition will threaten us. So ... individual efforts to advance are encouraged.
 

I apologize, Narz, but a couple of unidentified commentators at the beginning of a theatrical trailer saying do not convince me that the suburbs aren't sustainable. Yes, we'll eventually have to switch to other kinds of fuel. How does that show that the suburbs are "unsustainable"?

They destroy natural diversity.

So does any human habitation.

Any community that is at least 50% self sufficient (in terms of food, resources and human services).

So right now, the United States is an ecovillage?

No. Just to not reproduce irresponsibly.

Nobody will listen if you ask them not to reproduce irresponsibly.

The amount of humans alive today are lowing quality of life per capita.

Theoretically, that's possible. But why should I care what the "average standard of life" is? It would be nice to raise it, but it's not my place to say "you can't have children because they'll lower the average per capita income of the world!"


I'm no more interested in having a discussion with dieoff.org than with exitmundi.nl.

Suggesting people have one child (or none) is not the same as suggesting that they kill each other.

No, but forcing people to have one child each is a horrendous policy.

Developed countries have much lower birth-rates than undeveloped countries. Isn't it more productive to help countries like these develop some sort of industry than to try and control their birthrates?

Unsustainably population growth will ultimately lead to disaster and misery for those alive. It can be seen on the faces of malnourished, diseased and neglected children in parts of Africa, Asia and elsewhere.

I would think that part of the problem in Africa and Asia is that there is very little being produced.
 
Trade is essential to get one community with 100% self suffiency.
By definition if you're having to trade you're not completely self sufficient. Of course 100% self sufficient is an unattainable goal anyway. Trade is great, ideally it should be fair.

You just don't know a good thing when you see it.
I imagine I appreciate the marvels of this age more so than most people because I realize how lucky I am whereas many people (I'm not in their heads so I can't really know how they feel but from observation) seem to take all the conviencies of modern life (heat, indoor plumping, cheap travel, etc.) for granted.

Meh, more peak oil bunk, I don't care to debate that anymore with you. Suffice it to other forms of energy exist, and they can be made affordable.
SHOW ME PROOF OF THAT!

If you can't provide satisfactory answer to all these questions you haven't got proof but simply a naive and cornicopian vision.

Edit : Gogf, I must relinquish the Internet for a few hours, I'll get back to your post. :)
 
This is the most intellectual post in the whole thread. I fully agree with you! Good work! :goodjob:

And global cooperation is also important.
Thanks :)

True, because the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. While I am against the idea of one world government, many nations trading and learning from each other is greater than many nations bickering or keeping to themselves.

Narz said:
SHOW ME PROOF OF THAT!
Yes, plenty of non-oil sources of energy exist that meet those requirements. Like every other well-known source of power. The gradual decline of oil does not herald an end to energy itself. We can and will have a continual cornicopia of energy, unless we really screw up badly tech-wise.
 
That's not to say that energy might get temporary bumps in price (and negatively affect our economies at each bump); but once an alternate fuel becomes viable (price wise), then feedback mechanisms will kick in to reduce the price.

Of course, using current fuel wisely is still a good idea; there's no benefit to invoking the broken window fallacy.
 
We hit a technological singularity between 2026 and 2045, possibly. Hopefully.

:eek: Warning, danger Will Robinson! Proceed with extreme caution!

Yeah, that's what I think too, except I dunno about the date. I'll probably still be alive at the times you name. I was hoping we'd have a few more generations to contemplate the options and gather together some wisdom to apply to them.
 
I apologize, Narz, but a couple of unidentified commentators at the beginning of a theatrical trailer saying do not convince me that the suburbs aren't sustainable. Yes, we'll eventually have to switch to other kinds of fuel. How does that show that the suburbs are "unsustainable"?
Yeah, they could have put it together a bit better (the trailer, for awhile they had a 55 minute condensced version of the movie available on YouTube but there's been a crackdown of that type of thing lately, I wonder if it has anything to do with Google buying it).

Anyway, the suburbs are unsustainable because they cost too much to maintain. Also because (IMO) they are not satisfying to llive in. I haven't taken a poll (maybe I will) but I'd say most people would rather live either in the country (with natural abundence) or the city (with social abundence) than in a strip-mall suburb.

So does any human habitation.
Not necessarily true and not to the extent of the suburbs. Humans may not be able to aviod crushing a few ants or felling a few trees but they don't have to totally bulldoze the landscape and kill all life thereon to build a suburban complex and a mini-mall. Natural wildlife can be maintained, natural biodiversity doesn't have to be crushed by a roll-out "carpet" of lawn grass.

So right now, the United States is an ecovillage?
Well another aspect of ecovillages is that (IMO) their ideal size is about 100-300 people. The communities would be tight-knit and the people would work together. Kind of diametrically opposed to many suburban apartment complexs (like a few I've lived in) where neighbors don't know each other and drive off in a hundred different directions every morning to work at their jobs (with friends and family often lived many miles away). Beyond being as self-sufficinet as possible materially and economically they would also be somewhat self-sufficient socailly (not to say visitors and even tourists wouldn't be welcomed but that people ideally wouldn't suffer the chronic loneliness so previlant in Western culture).


Nobody will listen if you ask them not to reproduce irresponsibly.
Possibly true, they might get confused by the double negative. Instead I'd probably ask them to reproduce responsibly (and give economic incentives for doing so), assuming I was the king of the world and all. Laypeople don't usually take life advice from other laypeople. Maybe I should run for office... or stage a political coo (however the heck you spell it).

Theoretically, that's possible. But why should I care what the "average standard of life" is? It would be nice to raise it, but it's not my place to say "you can't have children because they'll lower the average per capita income of the world!"
Sadly many people don't seem to care about their effect on the entire world. And they (in a way, rightly) imagine that their life choices won't have a large enough impact to effect things on a global scale. Or they might even feel so rightious that they consider it their responsibility to have lots of kids, to counteract the masses of other folks doing things wrong. :crazyeye:

I'm unable to dictate a good policy for how others should live. I suppose I shouldn't have begun to. Honestly, you're probably right (the limiting of people's reproductive rights is not the correct solution).

I'm no more interested in having a discussion with dieoff.org than with exitmundi.nl.
There are some interesting articles on that site.

No, but forcing people to have one child each is a horrendous policy.
It's working for China. I imagine many Indians in the future will wish their nation had adopted such a policy.

Developed countries have much lower birth-rates than undeveloped countries. Isn't it more productive to help countries like these develop some sort of industry than to try and control their birthrates?
Probably. Sustainable industry of course. If everyone lived like the US we'd be screwed. Of course that's not possible. If everyone lived like the US gasoline would probably cost $50 a gallon and the next day no one would be living like the US. Sadly, 3rd world countries, hoping that someday they can be as consumeristic and wasteful as the US will be sorely dissapointed. Because in the future, even the US won't be living like it is now.

I would think that part of the problem in Africa and Asia is that there is very little being produced.
Are you kidding? The parts of the computer you're typing on were most likely produced somewhere in Asia, probably many of the clothes in your closet too. At this moment in time producing stuff doesn't pay very well (whereas selling, managing trade and overseeing labor does) but at some point it will again.

Yes, plenty of non-oil sources of energy exist that meet those requirements. Like every other well-known source of power. The gradual decline of oil does not herald an end to energy itself. We can and will have a continual cornicopia of energy, unless we really screw up badly tech-wise.
What other fuel source has the versitility of oil? I have yet to see any reasonable proof that the industrial world will be able to make a smooth and seamless switch to... no one can even agree on what the supposed new miracle fuel is... The burden of proof is on the ones making the claim "That XYZ fuel will save the day". No one has yet proven (to me) up to that task and rests on non-commital brush-off answers such as "Meh, it's all good, there are plenty of cool alternative sources of energy out there, when oil gets too pricy "the market" will solve everything".
 
Anyway, the suburbs are unsustainable because they cost too much to maintain. Also because (IMO) they are not satisfying to llive in. I haven't taken a poll (maybe I will) but I'd say most people would rather live either in the country (with natural abundence) or the city (with social abundence) than in a strip-mall suburb.
Yet they exist and continue to exist, and many people choose to live in them, ranging from the lower-middle-class (not too expensive), to the filthy rich (not undesireable). I do not understand your dislike of medium-zoned residential yet not minding sparse and dense.

What other fuel source has the versitility of oil?
Your linked article discounts ethanol too easily. The price of that vegetable oil takes into account the cost to grow, extract, and ship it. That's the market price. Ethanol is not that much more expensive than gasoline, and there are already some gas stations which serve it.

Also, what about electric cars? Certainly converting the energy more is costly, but the bulk rates of its source is great. Batteries are inefficient, but they are a viable substitute.

The price of fuel will be the lesser of the options: gas or ethanol or electric or whatever else. A little more expensive is not the same as doomed.

"Meh, it's all good, there are plenty of cool alternative sources of energy out there, when oil gets too pricy "the market" will solve everything".
It is, and it will. :)
 
Assuming our high tech civilization survives the next 500 years of climate upheaval, spreading out to the local planets, and other stars is inevitable.
 
We go Up and out.

It is amidst the planets, moons, and asteroids that Humanity must set their future. In particular, one of our fisrt tasks should be the building of a number of large Space-Mirrors, to direct large volumes of sunlight at anything we may choose. (This would be vital in settlement of colder planets/Moons, and quite useful for increasing the viability of space habitats.)
 
Your linked article discounts ethanol too easily. The price of that vegetable oil takes into account the cost to grow, extract, and ship it. That's the market price. Ethanol is not that much more expensive than gasoline, and there are already some gas stations which serve it.
According to this article ethanol isn't as cheap as it might seem (though still probably cheaper than the true cost of gasoline).

Also, what about electric cars? Certainly converting the energy more is costly, but the bulk rates of its source is great. Batteries are inefficient, but they are a viable substitute.
I suppose it's possible. What about planes?

The price of fuel will be the lesser of the options: gas or ethanol or electric or whatever else. A little more expensive is not the same as doomed.
Ethanol cannot replace everything that oil now does, neither can electricity, IMO. I don't think we'll make the transition in time. People's complacent attitudes and unwavering faith in "the market" (aka : other people) to solve things in the nick of time only make me doubt it more.

It is, and it will. :)
Time will tell.
 
By definition if you're having to trade you're not completely self sufficient. Of course 100% self sufficient is an unattainable goal anyway. Trade is great, ideally it should be fair.
I'm talking about massive internal trade among one community. That how we should run things. It would allow for 100% self-suffiency.

I imagine I appreciate the marvels of this age more so than most people because I realize how lucky I am whereas many people (I'm not in their heads so I can't really know how they feel but from observation) seem to take all the conviencies of modern life (heat, indoor plumping, cheap travel, etc.) for granted.

SHOW ME PROOF OF THAT!
This pretty much knocks out Hubbert's original argument:
http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-Deffeyes).htm
I can't find a good site against paranoid crashing ideas that nutball conspiracy thoerists whine, and I'm too busy to do really deep searching for it.

If you can't provide satisfactory answer to all these questions you haven't got proof but simply a naive and cornicopian vision.
No, I don't have to answer everything that every bozo says, that's not my job.
 
Hubbert's curve doesn't make sense for so many reason it's ridiculous.
This tells the whole story..
"In my figure of 1956, these curves were not derived from any mathematical equation. They were simply tailored by hand. I suggest anyone interested should draw the curves himself". --Hubbert 1982
 
"Dismantle the suburbs and change them into tens of thousands of ecovillages instead. Phase out polluting technology and place an embargo on any nation that continues to pollute. Place human interest over economic interest. Voluntarily reduce population."

Are you jokin? whats an eco village? a fancier subur?
 
No its hippie talk for subur that produces organics.
 
oh. my consumption is better then your consumption bs. point taken
 
Where we go from here will be heavily dependant on the social order after the next world war. IMHO World war III is almost inevitable from the way the world is headed post 9/11. I highly doubt overpopulation is going to be a big worry come 50-60 years though....
 
Where we go from here will be heavily dependant on the social order after the next world war. IMHO World war III is almost inevitable from the way the world is headed post 9/11. I highly doubt overpopulation is going to be a big worry come 50-60 years though....
WWIII? Is there really no way to stop it? [cough*europe*cough]

Europe will most likely stop it.
 
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