Which country will start WW3 and Why?

[Ajidica]

It can only come out of massive incompetence, o yes those ate the likeliest candidates if it comes to happen.

I see no reason to believe the Chinese government isn't as equally -if not more so- full of corrupt, venal, lying, backstabbers as any other government.

Yeah there's a reason they're the one big country massively rising in terms of living conditions, economic influence and even cultural influence. They're the big one with the most competent government currently. Like it or not. Covid showed that to anyone who might still doubt - and I had. No more.

And actively engaging in what can easily amount to genocide. Any praise accorded to the current Chinese government needs to come with a lot of qualifiers.

EDIT: To answer the OP, I'm going to say Sweden, Denmark, and Norway when a vortex re-awakens their viking urges and they decide to plunder the rest of the world.

 

[red_elk]

I don't think any country would willingly start WW3.
More plausible scenario is either chain of escalations which will start in some contested area where interests of few major powers clash. Or accidental launch.
Most "promising" area is probably South China Sea.
Hypothetical armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine will only last about a week and won't escalate further.
Baltic States are of no interest to Russia by themselves, although their NATO membership guarantees them to be steamrolled in first days of WW3 (assuming Russia and NATO will be in opposing camps, of course)
India and Pakistan may theoretically begin major war or even nuclear exchange, but the rest of the world will very likely stay neutral.

 

[Zardnaar]

I don't think any country would willingly start WW3.
More plausible scenario is either chain of escalations which will start in some contested area where interests of few major powers clash. Or accidental launch.
Most "promising" area is probably South China Sea.
Hypothetical armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine will only last about a week and won't escalate further.
Baltic States are of no interest to Russia by themselves, although their NATO membership guarantees them to be steamrolled in first days of WW3 (assuming Russia and NATO will be in opposing camps, of course)
India and Pakistan may theoretically begin major war or even nuclear exchange, but the rest of the world will very likely stay neutral.

Putin's a bit smarter than the Chinese. Much like the USSR he knows how far he can push the Americans (and vice versa with the USA pushing Puins buttons).

I also don't see the Russians drumming up WW3 if they have a severe economic downturn.

China might if things fall apart economically. South China Seas/Taiwan.

 

[Ferocitus]

How many of those people would side with China over the U.S. though? Aren't a lot of ethnically Chinese Americans 2nd+ generation? Or are you saying that tongue in cheek given what happened during WW2?

Yes, many are 2nd generation, but each and everyone will have to be assessed as to whether
they would pose a threat during an armed conflict with China, just like happened with the
Japanese and some other residents during WW2.

What would happen if the U.S. has to fight Mexico in a war, btw? It seems you'd have to put like half the U.S. in a camp

Each and every one of them would need to be assessed by someone willing to take
responsibility for having foreign nationals on their soil during a hot war.

 

[Ferocitus]

Putin's a bit smarter than the Chinese. Much like the USSR he knows how far he can push the Americans (and vice versa with the USA pushing Puins buttons).

China might if things fall apart economically. South China Seas/Taiwan.

ITYM, China would attack Taiwan, and then other countries would turn it into WW3.

 

[warpus]

Yes, many are 2nd generation, but each and everyone will have to be assessed as to whether
they would pose a threat during an armed conflict with China, just like happened with the
Japanese and some other residents during WW2.

Wasn't that incredibly controversial even back in the day? Did the U.S. do this during the war with Vietnam or the Korean war?

I don't see it happening in this day and age, unless a Republican president is in charge.

 

[Ferocitus]

Wasn't that incredibly controversial even back in the day? Did the U.S. do this during the war with Vietnam or the Korean war?

I don't see it happening in this day and age, unless a Republican president is in charge.

It was controversial during WW2, and not just in the US.
Security agencies in the US monitored people who were deemed possible threats during both Vietnam and Korean wars.
Someone has to take responsibility for the security breach possibilities of foreign nationals.
Who do you think will take responsibility for such a breach that kills or injures US citizens at home, given that there are many Chinese nationals who are current members of the CCP working in the US (e.g. many in academic institutions)?

 

[warpus]

Were Americans descendent from Iraqis rounded up during the Gulf War? I don't remember anything like that happening (but could have missed it)

Wouldn't "foreign national" be a small subset of the people affected as well? Surely there must be a lot of Chinese Americans who have American citizenship.

 

[Ferocitus]

Were Americans descendent from Iraqis rounded up during the Gulf War? I don't remember anything like that happening (but could have missed it)

Wouldn't "foreign national" be a small subset of the people affected as well? Surely there must be a lot of Chinese Americans who have American citizenship.

Iraqis and others were monitored closely by security services and of course by Homeland Security when it was established.
There are very many Chinese-born people who took up US citizenship, but that doesn't mean they automatically
qualify as being perfectly safe and loyal to the US during a proper war.
As I keep saying, someone eventually has to take responsibility if one of them goes rogue and causes harm.
How do you think the GOP or the Dems would react to an attack by a Chinese born American during an actual war?
Would they give the other side a free pass and concede that it was perfectly Ok to ignore them as a possible threat?
Also, how do you think supplies to the US (and to China) would go if there was an actual (non-nuclear) war?

 

[warpus]

There are very many Chinese-born people who took up US citizenship, but that doesn't mean they automatically
qualify as being perfectly safe and loyal to the US during a proper war.

My point is.. If you have U.S. citizenship surely you aren't a foreign national.

 

[stinkubus]

China because it wants the South China Sea, consequences be damned.

How dastardly of those Chinese to not want the US to be able to blockade their Pacific shipping lanes on a whim.

To answer the OP: the greatest threat is the United States and it's not close. Refurbishment of the arsenal has been a bipartisan project through at least the last 3 administrations. This only incentivizes the other nuclear powers to do the same. Our completely unprovoked invasion of Iraq also demonstrated to the world that if you don't want to live under the US's boot or constant threat of invasion you better get yourself a deterrent.

 

[Farm Boy]

Damn sons, two roundabout justifications for military conquest of an independent nation along with token condemnation of the same. I know people like to bandy about the term double-speak, but there you go.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

China is the most likely candidate by far. It has a lot of parallels to the nation that started the last one. Though it could also just collapse economically under its housing bubble + demographic pressure (one child policy has yet to show its peak damage).

Other than a Chinese grab attempt at Taiwan or India, I'm not sure which alliances are actually strong enough to drag otherwise unwilling nations into large scale war. I certainly expect we see some wars in < 20 years though, and expect them to be devastating. Not something I look forward to, and would prefer being wrong. I don't expect them to look like either WW1 or WW2, though.

 

[warpus]

What would happen to the Chinese middle class in the event of a global war started by China? The Chinese economy would go down the drain, since you'd assume that any sort of trade with the west would come to an end.. Currently the Chinese regime is able to stay in power and be relatively popular due to the strong economy.. or rather the fact that the economy has grown under this regime and created many new opportunities for the ever growing Chinese middle class. If those opportunities vanish, so would a lot of the of popularity or support of the regime that you see today.

That's why I don't think China will be eager to go to war over Taiwan anytime soon. IMO they are waiting until the situation changes. The world can change quite a bit in 10-20 years, and maybe by then the geopolitical reality will be much different and might make an invasion of Taiwan doable. So they sit and wait, and improve their military step by step, and hope that one day the situation will change. But until then, IMO all we'll ever see is "you sailed through our waters" sort of complaints.

 

[aelf]

What would happen to the Chinese middle class in the event of a global war started by China? The Chinese economy would go down the drain, since you'd assume that any sort of trade with the west would come to an end.. Currently the Chinese regime is able to stay in power and be relatively popular due to the strong economy.. or rather the fact that the economy has grown under this regime and created many new opportunities for the ever growing Chinese middle class. If those opportunities vanish, so would a lot of the of popularity or support of the regime that you see today.

That's why I don't think China will be eager to go to war over Taiwan anytime soon. IMO they are waiting until the situation changes. The world can change quite a bit in 10-20 years, and maybe by then the geopolitical reality will be much different and might make an invasion of Taiwan doable. So they sit and wait, and improve their military step by step, and hope that one day the situation will change. But until then, IMO all we'll ever see is "you sailed through our waters" sort of complaints.

Nationalistic flag-waving caused two world wars, the economy be damned. China under Xi's regime is inching closer to that kind situation. If his successor is even worse, war can quickly become a reality.

 

[warpus]

Nationalistic flag-waving caused two world wars, the economy be damned. China under Xi's regime is inching closer to that kind situation. If his successor is even worse, war can quickly become a reality.

Those two previous situations were very different though. Right now we have a China that relies on the global economy to keep their middle class happy. There is nationalism, but people understand money and comfort first and foremost, even with all that propaganda around. The Chinese have managed to somehow create a perhaps more materialistic society than the Americans have..

Some have theorized that if China did not provide its citizens with such improved standards of livings in the last half 3-5 decades, that the communist government would no longer be around. I would not at all be surprised if China crumbled in internal problems if trade with the west stopped completely. They would probably survive for a number of weeks or maybe longer, but eventually citizens would revolt. IMO ofc

I think that's why they are being so careful.. I mean also keeping in mind that they don't have the tech right now to invade Taiwan. IMO if they didn't have to worry about trade with the west they would have been more brave about this. They would have probably already tried attacking in some capacity. Instead they wait and slowly build up their army, hoping that the situation changes

 

[red_elk]

China doesn't have to start war over Taiwan. They are on the rise, America's influence is declining - eventually they'll take it without fight, like Hong-Kong. Time is on their side.

 

[warpus]

China doesn't have to start war over Taiwan. They are on the rise, America's influence is declining - eventually they'll take it without fight, like Hong-Kong. Time is on their side.

What would be the scenario where they take Taiwan without a fight? The inhabitants of Taiwan seem to highly value their independence and would not go without a fight - it seems.

 

[Broken_Erika]

What would be the scenario where they take Taiwan without a fight? The inhabitants of Taiwan seem to highly value their independence and would not go without a fight - it seems.

An ideal scenario would involve them working together long enough for peaceful reunification.

 

[warpus]

That does not seem likely unless mainland China becomes a democracy or Taiwan ceases being a democracy, though.