Which country will start WW3 and Why?

[red_elk]

What would be the scenario where they take Taiwan without a fight? The inhabitants of Taiwan seem to highly value their independence and would not go without a fight - it seems.

For example if they will be offered acceptable terms of unification and resistance will only make the outcome much worse for them.

 

[Zardnaar]

China doesn't have to start war over Taiwan. They are on the rise, America's influence is declining - eventually they'll take it without fight, like Hong-Kong. Time is on their side.

China has a 60 triliion housing bubble that's looking dodgy.

 

[warpus]

For example if they will be offered acceptable terms of unification and resistance will only make the outcome much worse for them.

Acceptable terms of unification seem incompatible from both sides right now. It seems that a radical shift would be required first, such as a communist revolution in Taiwan happening first, or a return of democracy to China.. (and both seem unlikely) or perhaps some sort of a subvertive action installing a puppet regime in Taiwan first. If not any of those, then I think we will have to wait 50+ years before attitudes shift enough for unification to be a possibility, IMO

 

[Broken_Erika]

That does not seem likely unless mainland China becomes a democracy or Taiwan ceases being a democracy, though.

Unless, China finds a third way other that capitalism/communism

 

[aelf]

Those two previous situations were very different though. Right now we have a China that relies on the global economy to keep their middle class happy. There is nationalism, but people understand money and comfort first and foremost, even with all that propaganda around. The Chinese have managed to somehow create a perhaps more materialistic society than the Americans have..

What gives you the impression that people in the 1910's and 1930's were less interested in prosperity than people in China today?

Some have theorized that if China did not provide its citizens with such improved standards of livings in the last half 3-5 decades, that the communist government would no longer be around. I would not at all be surprised if China crumbled in internal problems if trade with the west stopped completely. They would probably survive for a number of weeks or maybe longer, but eventually citizens would revolt. IMO ofc

I think that's why they are being so careful.. I mean also keeping in mind that they don't have the tech right now to invade Taiwan. IMO if they didn't have to worry about trade with the west they would have been more brave about this. They would have probably already tried attacking in some capacity. Instead they wait and slowly build up their army, hoping that the situation changes

Chinese citizens have so far complied with whatever the CCP has imposed. Any unrest is typically fairly marginal and swiftly put down. Tiananmen left almost no lasting impression domestically and has virtually been forgotten. With unbridled nationalism thrown into the mix, I don't see it as unlikely that Chinese citizens would go along with a war. Even if they're not too keen, so what? The US has recently fought wars many Americans weren't too keen on. China could quite easily demand more sacrifice than that from its citizens, and there might also be optimism as to how quickly and easily they could win, like Japan in 1942.

 

[H4run]

Public opinion don't mean an atom of crap in China. CCP is the representation of public opinion, even when it's not.

 

[warpus]

Chinese citizens have so far complied with whatever the CCP has imposed. Any unrest is typically fairly marginal and swiftly put down. Tiananmen left almost no lasting impression domestically and has virtually been forgotten. With unbridled nationalism thrown into the mix, I don't see it as unlikely that Chinese citizens would go along with a war. Even if they're not too keen, so what? The US has recently fought wars many Americans weren't too keen on. China could quite easily demand more sacrifice than that from its citizens, and there might also be optimism as to how quickly and easily they could win, like Japan in 1942.

Oh, I think they'll easily go along with a war. But that will change as soon as the Chinese economy implodes and the party asks people to go back to much lower standards of living.

 

[Zardnaar]

Public opinion don't mean an atom of crap in China. CCP is the representation of public opinion, even when it's not.

They still care about public opinion.

Big problem for China in a war is each little Emperor that dies is an extinct family line.

 

[GenMarshall]

For me it’s a toss up with China starting WW3 by either ticking off its neighbors in the South China Sea by expanding its sphere of influence and being a dark cloud over Taiwan (I’m still picturing a ghost of Chairman Mao holding a sign saying “Sooon” while glaring at Tawain) or poking at India enough times (I recall the borders between China and India are quite contested). Or with Russia and Putin expanding (rather reexpanding) their influence in Eastern Europe since the days of the USSR/Russian Empire. Though that would depend if NATO countries would grow annoyed with Putin’s antics enough that losing fuel access from Russia would be worth it if it means stoping a Neo-Russian Empire.

These are just my guesses since it’s going to take a lot for a regional conflict to grow into a global world war. Especially since great powers of today don’t officially declare war against each other.

 

[Sofista]

Shouldn't we all be a bit more optimistic, and hope that the balance of terror that worked so perfectly during the Cold War might be reestablished?

 

[El_Machinae]

Both the United States and China might be undergoing some internal implosion over the next little bit, so two pseudo-superpowers each have independent mechanisms of spiraling out of control.

 

[AdamCrock]

US will start : beacuase . . . the walrus oil !

 

[GenMarshall]

US will start : beacuase . . . the walrus oil !

Walrus oil is small potatoes, try whale oil!

(We did a bit of harvesting whales for their blubber in the mid 1800s)

 

[AdamCrock]

It is gonna be an exciting episode "beacuase" xD US is gonna be the bad guys !

 

[AdamCrock]

Trying to steal our walrus whale oil - we'll see about that ! xD Not to mention Helium 3 !!! xD

 

[H4run]

They still care about public opinion.

Big problem for China in a war is each little Emperor that dies is an extinct family line.

Of course bro, they care so much they will feed them to polices, soldiers or even tank.

I don't see we are in disagreement here.

 

[aelf]

Oh, I think they'll easily go along with a war. But that will change as soon as the Chinese economy implodes and the party asks people to go back to much lower standards of living.

Maybe. But how long would the war have gone on by then or how much damage would it have caused, directly and indirectly?

 

[warpus]

Maybe. But how long would the war have gone on by then or how much damage would it have caused, directly and indirectly?

I just don't think that China would go for it unless they think those economic pressures from the west won't matter anymore or unless they can get in there and secure the island relatively quickly, or both. I don't think they want a long drawn out conflict at all. So they wait until the situation changes in their favour, while they build up a capable invasion force and modernize their military.

They also seem to hope to get a pro political unification party in power in Taiwan and unify that way. That might actually be a way for them to do it, with a sneaky misinformation campaign that gets a friendly political party elected. They have been hoping for this in order to get that tunnel under the South China Sea built (for high speed rail and other connections). I suspect that the Taiwanese people would rise up if a local government pushed too far in that direction, but who knows. From what I've seen not that many Taiwanese are interested in any sort of unification with the mainland unless it means democracy and no communist party in charge. They can all see what's been happening in Hong Kong, they don't want to lose their freedoms and their way of life.

Of course on such a hypothetical it's easy to come up with differing scenarios that disagree with each other.

 

[aelf]

I just don't think that China would go for it unless they think those economic pressures from the west won't matter anymore or unless they can get in there and secure the island relatively quickly, or both.

And I think it's very possible that they would think these are true but would actually be overestimating their ability to pull it off. Both Germany and Japan went to war like that in WW2. Another way to look at it is Nazis and Japanese military government thought they'd eventually be doomed if they didn't go to war right then and exploit the slight chance for victory - another possible scenario for a CCP war of agression.

Germany also didn't put their economy on war footing till very late for fear of angering the German public, and they carried on for years.

 

[warpus]

One big difference IMO is that Chinese middle class prosperity is a relatively new phenomenon. The Chinese national psyche has not forgotten a time when a Chinese class did not yet basically exist. From their pov the communist party has made that possible. IMO as soon as that starts crumbling, a lot of the allowances made by the Chinese people (wrt their government) will start falling apart.