Which country will start WW3 and Why?

[Zardnaar]

What would you call a war between two or more of the superpowers?
It's not that far-fetched, I mean some people (not in CFC, afaik) even suggest the US attacks russian troops.

Still not a world war.
Basically a alliance vs alliance that's big enough and widespread enough.

USA and Russia duking it out in Ukraine or China and USA going at it over Taiwan doesn't count.

 

[Henri Christophe]

Still not a world war.
Basically a alliance vs alliance that's big enough and widespread enough.

USA and Russia duking it out in Ukraine or China and USA going at it over Taiwan doesn't count.

If USA engage a war against Russia or China, it will be the 3rd world war.
First because USA is part of NATO and a bunch of other nations will be envolved in the conflict.
Second US is other continent then Russia or China, so a war with they is a world war.

 

[Zardnaar]

If USA engage a war against Russia or China, it will be the 3rd world war.
First because USA is part of NATO and a bunch of other nations will be envolved in the conflict.
Second US is other continent then Russia or China, so a war with they is a world war.

If they bring in allies otherwise it's a regional war between two superpowers.

Well if China's involved Russia's a regional power.

 

[innonimatu]

Eventually the Chinese middle class is going to see a pretty severe drop in their growth rate from purely economic and demographic causes. And they'll have a surplus of men. Imperial adventures are a natural risk at that point.

No, they do not have a surplus of your men. Also the larger the country the harder to keep together. Practical political management advises against imperial expansion.

Asia I think will be quite stable. The only seriously contested border is between Pakistan and India but that one has been static for what, most of the two state's existence? Asia seems to be allying to get rid of meddling from outside. Odds are good that the indian-pakistani conflict gets resolved by settling on the current lines of control. If the chinese are smart they may even give some ground to get India on board with an eurasian alliance.

What I'm worried is the current decadent hegemon escalating one of its delaying fights into a world war by accident. Missiles are dangerous, no one knows if they carry nukes. When doubt... launch everything? The MAD doctrine was in place for a long time.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Chinese demographics:

If one looks to the lower left, the surplus males are evident. But the millennials also have a surplus.

 

[r16]

ah , yes , there is nothing to see here . Not when China and America fights and satellites will be blown up all around the world and it is a regional conflict ... Bdcause if we call it a world war , people will be scared ! And do not let the Goverment get on with it ! Because that's when the Democratic West will start shooting people in the streets .

 

[thetrooper]

Because of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans?

 

[r16]

the foolish thing in the Balkans of 1914 shaped the oil stuff for like a century and that's a lot of money . America is "smarter" these days and is now building a better fighting force than the Greeks of 1920 , too . Essentially WW III will ruin the world so bad that IV will be fougth with bows and arrows . To fight III , you have to avoid calling it III . But yes , series production of musketry has started for IV because of ample stocks of bows and arrows .

 

[Zardnaar]

the foolish thing in the Balkans of 1914 shaped the oil stuff for like a century and that's a lot of money . America is "smarter" these days and is now building a better fighting force than the Greeks of 1920 , too . Essentially WW III will ruin the world so bad that IV will be fougth with bows and arrows . To fight III , you have to avoid calling it III . But yes , series production of musketry has started for IV because of ample stocks of bows and arrows .

Tbf with the Turkish economy they'll be fighting a Balkan war with bows and arrows. Vienna or bust!!!!

 

[r16]

after the orbital bombardment you people will be down to stones in areas not fully glassed yet . So , ı see no problems with Vienna . Want to post about the impossibility of Auckland or whatever the place ?

 

[Remorseless1]

No, they do not have a surplus of your men. Also the larger the country the harder to keep together. Practical political management advises against imperial expansion.

Asia I think will be quite stable. The only seriously contested border is between Pakistan and India but that one has been static for what, most of the two state's existence? Asia seems to be allying to get rid of meddling from outside. Odds are good that the indian-pakistani conflict gets resolved by settling on the current lines of control. If the chinese are smart they may even give some ground to get India on board with an eurasian alliance.

What I'm worried is the current decadent hegemon escalating one of its delaying fights into a world war by accident. Missiles are dangerous, no one knows if they carry nukes. When doubt... launch everything? The MAD doctrine was in place for a long time.

Taiwzn? Myramar? The Korean Peninsula? Islands in the South China Sea? The PRC's border with India? I think East Asia has plenty of flashpoints. And West Asia? Persian Gulf, Sinai, the Muslim states on the southern periphery of the crumbling Russian federation? Yes, everywhere else is so peaceful...

 

[Henri Christophe]

The war is inevitable, but it can take centuries to happen.
In the future, the human been will be colonizing other planets, so maybe there will be not a 3rd world war, but the 1st star wars instead.
now we are afraid about an atomic war because it will be the end of humanity, but if we have colonies in other planets, an atomic war can lead to end of life on earth, but not the humanity.

 

[El_Machinae]

Also the larger the country the harder to keep together. Practical political management advises against imperial expansion.

This is true. But when I look at the fishing waters that China will need to access to feed itself, there are a lot of neighbours who're significantly weaker than China.

I'd said "imperial adventures", not "imperial expansion", mind. I'm not predicting they'll take territory other than oceanic. But this doesn't seem to be enough to start a WW3. If the neighbours are too weak to resist, they'll just be driven back.

 

[r16]

north Korean drone helps a South Korean armed trainer (launched to shoot down another North Korean drone) to crash . The seperatists say a 70 year old guy who has been French for 70 years (according to his French father who has been French during all his 90 odd years) is a Chechen Turk from the Balkans and he is fan of the PM so that's why he killed 3 seperatists in Paris . Apparently the French Foreign Ministry is talking nonsense but that has not made it here yet . So , like another boring day . Assembling a big enough stock of stones ?

 

[Zardnaar]

This is true. But when I look at the fishing waters that China will need to access to feed itself, there are a lot of neighbours who're significantly weaker than China.

I'd said "imperial adventures", not "imperial expansion", mind. I'm not predicting they'll take territory other than oceanic. But this doesn't seem to be enough to start a WW3. If the neighbours are too weak to resist, they'll just be driven back.

China is reasonably easy to shut down if they get up to any imperial adventures.

Couple of submarines inalacaa strait for example. Even if you deal with them they can just embargo Chinese exports.

They're not self sufficient in food or energy.

 

[danjuno]

If the chinese are smart they may even give some ground to get India on board with an eurasian alliance.

It would take a lot to get India to abandon their free agent strategy that's been working for them so far. And in any event I don't see it happening while Xi and Modhi are both in power, since they both benefit from nationalistic theater that goes on between the two.

 

[Kyriakos]

India will get to the point of having 1/3 the global population, so they don't mind waiting.

 

[danjuno]

I haven't seen any studies that suggest India growing beyond 2 billion. Unless you're suggesting a global population collapse? Regardless, I fail to see how that makes them need an alliance with China more.

 

[Zardnaar]

I haven't seen any studies that suggest India growing beyond 2 billion. Unless you're suggesting a global population collapse? Regardless, I fail to see how that makes them need an alliance with China more.

If anything they'll supplant China.

 

[Plains-Cow]

My money is on Lichtenstein. They've been plotting something for awhile now...