Eventually the Chinese middle class is going to see a pretty severe drop in their growth rate from purely economic and demographic causes. And they'll have a surplus of men. Imperial adventures are a natural risk at that point.
Which country will start WW3 and Why?
- Thread starter Aiken_Drumn
- Start date
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
@Ferocitus You are describing what happened generations ago, at a completely different time than today. Surely a modern approach would differ from one from 70 years ago.
How many ethnically Chinese visitors/students/workers are in the U.S. who do not have citizenship anyway? How does this number compare to those who got their American citizenship?
How many ethnically Chinese visitors/students/workers are in the U.S. who do not have citizenship anyway? How does this number compare to those who got their American citizenship?
Ferocitus
Deity
Excellent guess!
How many of your long-term predictions have been accurate before?
Ferocitus
Deity
By 2017, it is estimated that more than a quarter million immigrants reside in the United States without authorization from China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Americans
Add to that about 300,000 students from China: some would stay and be naturalized, and many would not.
Some of them might take flying lessons.
Excellent guess!
How many of your long-term predictions have been accurate before?
Hundreds of spot-on predictions on CFC alone
Spoiler Proof :
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
Where do you stick a quarter of a million people? That seems like a human rights violation just waiting to happen.
Ferocitus
Deity
What do you suggest? Let them just roam around the USA, taking flying (but not landing) lessons?
They do not usually let that sort of thing get in the way.
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
I mean, the obvious problem with this idea is that if any Chinese agents are in the U.S. currently as "sleepers", waiting for a war to break out so they can act.. I bet most of them got their American citizenship a long time ago. So if you round up all of the non-American ethnic Chinese, you're just going to go out of your way to commit war crimes for no reason.
What is the worry? That a 2nd year chemistry student on a study visa is going to fly a plane into the Statue of Liberty? What?
Just deport any non-citizen you have reason to find suspicious and go from there
What is the worry? That a 2nd year chemistry student on a study visa is going to fly a plane into the Statue of Liberty? What?
Just deport any non-citizen you have reason to find suspicious and go from there
I think Covid and the solid lockdown has watered down their ability to wage war currently.
aelf
Ashen One
But could have increased their willingness. Ability didn't stop Nazi Germany from going to war.
China doesn't want any type of world war. They are focused on Taiwan and being recognized as a US equal. Putin has pretty much downgraded Russia's status as a significant player among world leaders to that of a trouble maker. Unless Putin makes some kind of stupid first strike on the EU, a world war is unlikely. Most world leaders know full well the terrible cost of any repeat of the 20th C. I think any wide spread struggle will move to the "less destructive" cyber theater. The Ukraine is a throw back war because it involves two neighboring countries and physical conquest.
I think waging war (beyond regional/local conficts) has moved from physical conquest to economic and technological conquest.
I think waging war (beyond regional/local conficts) has moved from physical conquest to economic and technological conquest.
Hasn't it always been the case to a certain degree? The best, most wins regardless of we're talking nukes or spears!
USA
The government will grow weary of running up against the law against biological weapons and dangerous AI, so it will fund labs around the world to develop them.
Eventually something will escape somewhere and cause $1,000,000,000,000,000 in damages.
When the damage is greater than a world war, I still think it counts as one even if it was an oopsie.
The government will grow weary of running up against the law against biological weapons and dangerous AI, so it will fund labs around the world to develop them.
Eventually something will escape somewhere and cause $1,000,000,000,000,000 in damages.
When the damage is greater than a world war, I still think it counts as one even if it was an oopsie.
Henri Christophe
L'empereur
I don't know who will started the 3rd world war, but I'm pretty sure USA will be envolved.
Zardnaar
Deity
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say Australia and NZ. We will return to our traditional stomping grounds but the Turks fight back. Pull a Venice instead and loot Athens.
That's worth at least $3.
That's worth at least $3.
Greece-Turkey war remains highly likely. And due to the relatively high-end weapons on both sides it can become pretty brutal - though neither side produces its own highest-end weapons so they'll be used up quickly.
In theory, in such a war a few more countries are bound to take part, due to alliance structure in place - eg UAE on the side of Greece, maybe Saudi and/or Egypt. Pakistan intervening can easily draw in India.
Last but not least, assuming Turkey attacks first, France is obligated to honor its defense pact (but this doesn't mean it will, though it might later on).
In theory, in such a war a few more countries are bound to take part, due to alliance structure in place - eg UAE on the side of Greece, maybe Saudi and/or Egypt. Pakistan intervening can easily draw in India.
Last but not least, assuming Turkey attacks first, France is obligated to honor its defense pact (but this doesn't mean it will, though it might later on).
Henri Christophe
L'empereur
I hope you are right, and we are living in the beginning of the pax americana.
But I also know all empires falls someday and wars are inevitables.
What would you call a war between two or more of the superpowers?
It's not that far-fetched, I mean some people (not in CFC, afaik) even suggest the US attacks russian troops.
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