Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
not easy to put into words what I'm feeling at the moment as well. It'll take some time before I processed it all.
Could simply be old age which has degraded the elasticity of the artery.
15%
- Thread starter Ziggy Stardust
- Start date
ArneHD
Just a little bit mad
Glad he survived. Hope he recovers completely soon.
15% survival rate when the rupture is a surprise? Or when the swelling has been diagnosed but no surgery imminent?
I know that feeling. I get it all the time when I consider my daughter. If you recall, she had brain damage when she was born. I won't qualify it with severe or mild (or something in between), because to a new parent any brain damage is severe.
In her case she underwent a new therapeutic procedure intended to minimize the damage. We won't know for sure how effective it was until she's 7 or 8 years old, since the brain is still developing up until then. Kids born like her usually wind up with Cerebral Palsy, or Epilepsy, or a host of other disorders which can range from some loss of motor control to bad cases with seizures, a life in a motorized wheelchair, and 24/7 medical assistance.
A friend of mine has a daughter with CP, and a colleague of my wife's has a daughter with a severe condition (not CP, but similar. Something rare and genetic). I always feel so utterly guilty that my kid isn't doing badly. In fact, she's almost fine so far. She has a little hearing loss, but it shouldn't be an issue since it was caught so early.
So I get that. When we go to the neurology appointments we see other families in the waiting room, our kid is usually the 'best' one in the room. Doesn't feel fair to all those other kids & families. Very very unfair.
"Hey Pops, these guys I know on the internet asked me to hold you...Wow. Glad your dad is OK. Give your dad a big CFC hug from all of us. But not too hard...
...and that guy with the MLP avatar said he was going to hug his."
Totally not creepy
classical_hero
In whom I trust
He sure isHe's doing well beyond expectations seeing there could have been a number of common complications.
That is great news since with the seriousness of the problem it could have been a problem later on or even sooner, so it is good to hear that he is recovering well. Yeah that is a major thing that he was well within help and knew about the problem before hand.
Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
He's going home on Friday \o/ Just came back from visiting where we found him wondering around.
PG, 15% when the rupture happens when the patient is outside of the hospital. It accounts for instance when something else stops the bleeding. Can be anything depending where it happens. Without that the patient will lose 3 liters in a short time. And that's end of story.
Very glad to hear your daughter is doing so well. Give her a hug from all of us
PG, 15% when the rupture happens when the patient is outside of the hospital. It accounts for instance when something else stops the bleeding. Can be anything depending where it happens. Without that the patient will lose 3 liters in a short time. And that's end of story.
Very glad to hear your daughter is doing so well. Give her a hug from all of us
Serious enough for mod tags:
Moderator Action: Great news!
Moderator Action: Great news!
First of all, I'm glad your dad made it and is recovering so quickly!
Life is a probabilistic game, and we're all constantly rolling the dice. It's really disconcerting to think of life in terms of probabilities, but that fundamentally is how the world works. My mom, a lifelong nonsmoker, was diagnosed with stage IV lung cancer last year, and this really drove the point home to me. Every cell division comes with a certain probability of a harmful mutation, and cancer happens whenever some cell manages to accumulate enough mutations to blow out cell cycle control entirely, fail to undergo apoptosis in response to cell signals, fool the immune system, direct blood vessels to supply it with oxygen, and spread around the body. It's a really low probability event, but when you have 10^14 cells things can easily go that wrong.
The numbers for stage IV lung cancer are bad: median survival time around 9 months, 5-year survival rate of ~5% (varies by source, but always single-digit). My mom has managed to make it 13 months so far, but it's spread all over her body now despite chemo, so she probably only has a few months left. It's awful, but it comes out to something like a 70-75th percentile outcome among stage IV lung cancer patients.
I don't mean to hijack your thread with my own problems, but I want to say that I know what it's like to have to think about human life in terms of probabilities. The dice rolls are similar with aneurysms, strokes, heart attacks, and myriad other things, not to mention car accidents and other risks we take every day. We all live under a risk of death or incapacitation based on things we don't even know have gone wrong until it's too late.
I find actuarial tables useful in understanding this sort of thing, too. One time, when a student died at the small college I went to (1600 students), I sat down with a table and calculated the expected number of fatalities among a population of 1600 people, split 47%-53% male to female, aged about 20. The expected number of fatalities per year was something like 1.3, with only a ~30% chance of seeing no fatalities in this population in a given year. The fact that we seemed to average about one student death a year made perfect sense in that context.
Losing people is a huge shock, but when I crunch the numbers I'm reminded to be grateful when long periods go by without deaths close to me. So, my congratulations to your dad on his good dice roll and may you, he, and everyone else here continue to roll our dice well!
Life is a probabilistic game, and we're all constantly rolling the dice. It's really disconcerting to think of life in terms of probabilities, but that fundamentally is how the world works. My mom, a lifelong nonsmoker, was diagnosed with stage IV lung cancer last year, and this really drove the point home to me. Every cell division comes with a certain probability of a harmful mutation, and cancer happens whenever some cell manages to accumulate enough mutations to blow out cell cycle control entirely, fail to undergo apoptosis in response to cell signals, fool the immune system, direct blood vessels to supply it with oxygen, and spread around the body. It's a really low probability event, but when you have 10^14 cells things can easily go that wrong.
The numbers for stage IV lung cancer are bad: median survival time around 9 months, 5-year survival rate of ~5% (varies by source, but always single-digit). My mom has managed to make it 13 months so far, but it's spread all over her body now despite chemo, so she probably only has a few months left. It's awful, but it comes out to something like a 70-75th percentile outcome among stage IV lung cancer patients.
I don't mean to hijack your thread with my own problems, but I want to say that I know what it's like to have to think about human life in terms of probabilities. The dice rolls are similar with aneurysms, strokes, heart attacks, and myriad other things, not to mention car accidents and other risks we take every day. We all live under a risk of death or incapacitation based on things we don't even know have gone wrong until it's too late.
I find actuarial tables useful in understanding this sort of thing, too. One time, when a student died at the small college I went to (1600 students), I sat down with a table and calculated the expected number of fatalities among a population of 1600 people, split 47%-53% male to female, aged about 20. The expected number of fatalities per year was something like 1.3, with only a ~30% chance of seeing no fatalities in this population in a given year. The fact that we seemed to average about one student death a year made perfect sense in that context.
Losing people is a huge shock, but when I crunch the numbers I'm reminded to be grateful when long periods go by without deaths close to me. So, my congratulations to your dad on his good dice roll and may you, he, and everyone else here continue to roll our dice well!
Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
Sorry to hear that Bootstoots. I lost my mom 4 years ago to cancer, so I am aware that there's another side to the coin. In fact I think that is also a factor why I felt guilty when seeing others in grief, since I have been there as well.
Before I opened this thread I thought it was going to be about how the top 15% of earners do whatever politcal hooey-blah-blah.
No, this happens to be a pretty poignant thread about something of real susbtance that will affect every single one of us. Part of the human experience. Heck, part of living, not just restricted to humans. Other creatures exhibit behavior consistent with mourning and grief. And joy upon seeing a partner they hadn't seen in a very long time.
That's awful to hear about your mother, Boots. Especially since it's unexpected, though when you lay out the numbers like that i'm surprised and amazed any of us can live more than about 10 years!
Sometimes numbers help to make sense of the world, and yet other times they only serve to terrify me. Auto accidents terrify me.
No, this happens to be a pretty poignant thread about something of real susbtance that will affect every single one of us. Part of the human experience. Heck, part of living, not just restricted to humans. Other creatures exhibit behavior consistent with mourning and grief. And joy upon seeing a partner they hadn't seen in a very long time.
That's awful to hear about your mother, Boots. Especially since it's unexpected, though when you lay out the numbers like that i'm surprised and amazed any of us can live more than about 10 years!
Sometimes numbers help to make sense of the world, and yet other times they only serve to terrify me. Auto accidents terrify me.
timtofly
One Day
- Joined
- Sep 28, 2009
- Messages
- 9,445
I have been told that after loosing both parents, one feels the true state of being an orphan. I have no clue how I would feel loosing either of my parents, even if I were to be close to them. I am not even sure if I could grieve in such a case. Being an orphan and having feelings of abandonment can come in all forms, and grieving may be a life long process.
Normally, I'd have skipped over this story, but now it raises flags.
Gene variant raises risk for aortic tear, rupture
Gene variant raises risk for aortic tear, rupture
Thanks for the condolences, everyone. I really appreciate it.
The feature I find most interesting in the graph is that you can easily see the huge difference in death rates between males and females in the 15-30 group. The male 10-year death curve shoots up to the 1.4% range by 18 and plateaus out there for about a decade before beginning a rapid climb through middle age. The female 10-year death rates are much lower and rise very slowly but steadily, rather than plateauing. They don't even cross 1% until age 32 (vs 15 for males) before accelerating more gradually but steadily through middle age. I only plotted it out to age 60 because the high probabilities past that age make the young-age features harder to see, and I'm looking for deaths under the age of 70, to help make sense of premature death.
So I guess it's not much of a surprise that we usually live the next 10 years, but it's very different for groups of people. In a group of 50 men and 50 women, all age 30, you have 50*.0165+50*.0088 = 1.26 expected deaths before the age of 40. The probability of all 100 making it to age 40 is only (.9835)^50*(.9912)^50 = 28%. Have enough close connections, and the odds of having one or more die young climb rapidly.
Not that you don't know this already, but there's no reason to feel guilty when your dad lived while others died. In a world that's probabilistic for all intents and purposes, there will always be some lucky survivors and some that are less fortunate, and there's no rhyme or reason to it. I think that survivors' guilt is sort of a misfiring of our moral machinery - we have a lot of trouble emotionally handing situations where life and death is just up to happenstance.Ziggy Stardust said:
I'll go on and inflict some more morbid statistics on everyone! I made a spreadsheet out of the actuarial tables provided by the Social Security Administration (SSA link using 2009 USA data). I went ahead and computed the probability that a person of some given age will die within the following 10-years. As an example, for me, a 25-year-old male, there is a 1.42% chance of death in the coming 10 years.
The feature I find most interesting in the graph is that you can easily see the huge difference in death rates between males and females in the 15-30 group. The male 10-year death curve shoots up to the 1.4% range by 18 and plateaus out there for about a decade before beginning a rapid climb through middle age. The female 10-year death rates are much lower and rise very slowly but steadily, rather than plateauing. They don't even cross 1% until age 32 (vs 15 for males) before accelerating more gradually but steadily through middle age. I only plotted it out to age 60 because the high probabilities past that age make the young-age features harder to see, and I'm looking for deaths under the age of 70, to help make sense of premature death.
So I guess it's not much of a surprise that we usually live the next 10 years, but it's very different for groups of people. In a group of 50 men and 50 women, all age 30, you have 50*.0165+50*.0088 = 1.26 expected deaths before the age of 40. The probability of all 100 making it to age 40 is only (.9835)^50*(.9912)^50 = 28%. Have enough close connections, and the odds of having one or more die young climb rapidly.
Attachments
CavLancer
This aint fertilizer
I'm sorry Bootstoots. I'm getting on in years so the deaths of both my parents are behind me. Enough time has past, and that makes a lot of difference. Time heals all wounds as they say. My mother died of the thing that causes the muscles on one side to lose control, I swear I'm getting senile not to remember the name of the thing that took my mother. My father was a lifetime smoker who finally got cancer and died. Its part of life, but that doesn't make it any easier. Best wishes.
