2018 U.S election

[Zkribbler]

We're coming up on the California primaries. We have 27 candidates for Governor; 32 for US Senator.

Under California law, the two top vote getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. For governor, front-running Democrat ex-SF Mayor Newsom is being accused of dirty tricks, to wit: running negative ads against the front-running Republican. The theory is that Republicans will rally around him, giving him enough votes to slip past LA-s ex-mayor Villariagossa, who is the Dems #2 guy.

There are three congressional districts down south in Orange County which are expected to switch from red to blue--except each has just a couple of GOPers running while dozens of Democrats are running. It is possible that the Dems votes will be so divided that, even tho most voters go Democratic, the two candidates with the most votes will be the Republicans.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Yeah there are too many candidates in Orange County and they are getting split endorsements - some get endorsed by the party, others are being endorsed by current senators/politicians instead. It's nice to have a lot of choices but it's really going to suck if they crowd each other out of the main election ballot. My current representative lives in a mansion in Laguna Beach but was able to register in Irvine by claiming a one-bedroom apartment without washer and dryer hookups is her primary residence. She astroturfed her way into office and has refused to hold any town hall meetings all the while supporting every stupid GOP initiative from ending net neutrality to supporting the tax cuts for rich people. I really want her out of office and this would be the year for it to happen (Orange County went for Hillary in a surprising turn of events in 2016) but thanks to liberal voter apathy I don't think it will happen.

I am predicting that the Democrats will have a good show nationally and will retake the house but not the Senate. Also, this good show will be significantly less than has been predicted as Democratic-leaning voters do not turn out the way Republican-leaning voters do during off years (or even in presidential elections like 2016).

Plus, thanks to gerrymandering, the Democrats will (as usual) get a million or more votes than the Republicans that will not be adequately reflected in the election results. I used to think that Trump would lose in 2020 (though a Republican would triumphantly return to office in 2024) but now I'm thinking he's actually going to win re-election.

 

[sophie]

I love the idea of a jungle primary, but it is pretty ineffective absent some kind of ranking system like STV. It's just FPTP by another name in its current implementation.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I don't think my ballot had all 32 choices for US Senate. It did have a lot but I don't think it was 32. I could be wrong.

 

[Zkribbler]

They were spread cross two pages. Perhaps you missed the second page.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I definitely had two pages. It's possible I just wasn't paying attention to the count

 

[Zkribbler]

In Calif: Newsom (D) and Cox (R) advance in their run for Governor.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

In Calif: Newsom (D) and Cox (R) advance in their run for Governor.

I'm a bit irritated at Newsom. He ran Cox ads because Cox will be the easiest for him to beat in November out of the potential opponents. Had he just run his own campaign he may have faced Villarogosa, who would have been much more of a challenge for him, so that was good strategy personally. But if we had managed to have two Democrats in the governors race that would have been that much more of a reason for Republicans statewide to just stay home in November.

 

[Arwon]

"Everyone on one ballot, first past the post picks the top two to contest the real election" would have to be the stupidest electoral system in the US, and that's even considering systems that don't have a secret ballot.

(It's just as dumb when France does it)

 

[Timsup2nothin]

"Everyone on one ballot, first past the post picks the top two to contest the real election" would have to be the stupidest electoral system in the US, and that's even considering systems that don't have a secret ballot.

(It's just as dumb when France does it)

The intention was good. In districts where party A doesn't stand a chance, if party B gets two possibilities onto the final ballot the one who best represents the district as a whole will win. There was a problem where a totally gerrymandered district would put up a total fringe nut candidate and they would win because their party would win no matter what. With this system the idea was that if the district was so heavily tilted towards one party then that party would have both candidates on the final ballot and the one who was more moderate would win over the fringe nut.

Unfortunately no one really considered how it would play in a fairly evenly divided district, since California really didn't have any of those. Suddenly the closet districts where all the Republicans were shoved together have become competitive, and the flaw in the system is revealed.

 

[Zkribbler]

I prefer this current system to one where a each party puts up a loon and a moderate, and the loon is able to get out the vote while the moderate voters stay home. Having a general election with a left-wing loon running against a right-wing loon is not something I want to see again..

 

[Lexicus]

Having a general election with a left-wing loon running against a right-wing loon is not something I want to see again..

Can you give some examples of where you have seen this?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

My representative got 53% of the primary vote which sucks. The top 3 Democrats secured a little more than 40% combined. My pick will advance to the main election but I just don't think she will be able to beat the incumbent.

The 48th district with Dana Rorhbacher (a Russian stooge) has a much more competitive election. He did win the primary but only got 30% of the vote.

 

[onejayhawk]

I also like the jungle primary approach, but with a bar to clear, eg 20%. However, it usually requires two or more ballots.

J

 

[Lexicus]

Incidentally, all US CFCers should be thinking about giving up some time this fall to work for the Democrats. Canvassing is best but phone banking helps, just showing up at events helps. Anything and everything we can do to break the Republican grip on Congress this fall. The future of the country is riding on our shoulders (not us as in CFC posters but us as in all Americans).

 

[Timsup2nothin]

My representative got 53% of the primary vote which sucks. The top 3 Democrats secured a little more than 40% combined. My pick will advance to the main election but I just don't think she will be able to beat the incumbent.

Primary turnout is not a clear representation of November turnout. Democrat money will converge behind the identified candidate and start driving for general democrat turnout, where the various candidates, even all taken together, had a lot less money to work with and were far more narrowly targeted in their efforts. Keep in mind that Hillary Clinton(!) beat Trump in your district. If she could carry it a generic democrat without thirty years of accumulated GOP attack baggage certainly should be able to carry it.

 

[Zkribbler]

From CNN:

The major fear coming into the evening for Democrats would be that Democrats would be "locked out" in three of the districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and currently have a Republican representative. These were the 39th (where Ed Royce is retiring), 48th (where Dana Rohrabacher is running for re-election) and 49th (where Darrell Issa is retiring).

The polling suggested that those fears were probably overstated ... As of right now, a Republican occupies the top slot in all three contests and a Democrat occupies the second slot.

 

[Zkribbler]

Can you give some examples of where you have seen this?

You're asking me for examples back when Schwarzenegger was Governor? Nope, my mind is nowhere near that sharp.

I do remember that, before this change, the Legislature was in gridlock due to extremists on both sides. After this reform, the government started working again.

 

[Lexicus]

You're asking me for examples back when Schwarzenegger was Governor? Nope, my mind is nowhere near that sharp.

I just find it hard to believe that anyone I would describe as a "left-wing loon" has been in a position to win any general election for any office more powerful than town dog catcher in the US for the past, oh, hundred and thirty years or so.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I just find it hard to believe that anyone I would describe as a "left-wing loon" has been in a position to win any general election for any office more powerful than town dog catcher in the US for the past, oh, hundred and thirty years or so.

Well, yeah, but we aren't necessarily all limiting the conversation to people that you would describe as a left wing loon.