1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

2018 U.S election

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Zkribbler, Jun 4, 2018.

  1. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Entangled Retired Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2001
    Messages:
    33,911
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    He has had two easy years. The next two will be much more difficult for him and he is already reeling. We know Mueller has stuff and the House will likely give him fits. He can't fill positions and I do expect more people to leave or be fired.
     
  2. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2002
    Messages:
    8,023
    Again, I disagree, and the media plays right into his hands every time they push this "Trump is unhappy!" narrative.

    Now, he not only has the attention, he has an actual foil to feud with, and to fight with publicly in a way that gets lots and lots of attention and media coverage. Things just got better for Trump, not worse. Now he gets to fight, but in the way that rich white cowards prefer - through lawyers and spokespeople and layers of bureaucracy.
     
  3. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    15,422
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    He has said exactly this point blank... that it will be easier for him now because if anything goes wrong he can just blame the Democrats.
     
  4. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    34,040
    Location:
    Perhaps in transit
    There are people in prison who can "just blame the judge." They don't seem to be getting all that much satisfaction out of it.
     
  5. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2002
    Messages:
    8,023
    It won't be easier or harder for him, because he isn't judging the job by how he actually is able to do it. I don't think he really is doing it at all.

    It will, however, allow for an even bigger spectacle. That's all he cares about. I think he knows that beating up on Hillary Clinton 2 years after the election is pretty lame. Now he has a real live opponent, and he can play the heel to a captive audience of 325 million people. He has never wanted anything so badly in his life.

    When you realize that WWE(F) is the blueprint for how Trump is conducting his presidency, with himself cast as the most notorious and hated heel, his whole presidency makes a lot more sense.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2018
  6. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    15,422
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    FTFY
     
  7. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2002
    Messages:
    8,023
    Having an annoying heel schtick is the hallmark of a great heel.
     
  8. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    15,422
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    Somebody besides me grew up watching WWF wraslin'
     
  9. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2007
    Messages:
    19,084
    Location:
    Sovereign State of the Have-Nots
    Well, yes, and I already admitted I was wrong about this, somewhere...

    There are all the other elements of the Republican coup to consider. North Carolina's legislature stripping its governor of all those powers, the blatant rigging of the Georgia election...

    The electoral college advantages the Republicans, hopefully not by enough to matter, but we'll see. As I've said elsewhere if the Democrats aren't able to tap into popular discontent over the "elites" and the economy I doubt they can win in 2020. And there are a few different reasons that I think it's very possible the Democrats won't be able to do this.
     
  10. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2002
    Messages:
    8,023
    Yep :D

    And remember back then how the weekly show was usually Hulk Hogan or Ultimate Warrior beating up some no-name guy? That was Trump vs. the Media. Trump was going to win, everyone knew it, and you only watched it because hey, it's the Hulk!

    Now that he has Pelosi to fight with, it's like Wrestlemania. All the fights you actually want to see because you don't know who is going to win. Even the Hulk can lose at Wrestlemania.
     
  11. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    34,040
    Location:
    Perhaps in transit
    Someone needs to remind him that the heels, even the great ones, were always forgotten almost immediately.
     
  12. Takhisis

    Takhisis ΑΛΗΘΩС ΑΝΕСΤΗ

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    42,116
    Location:
    up yours!
    Well, no. You see, the Democratic Party candidates have won the popular vote in all but one general elections since the Reagan-Bush years, i.e since the Soviet Union fell and anti-Commie rhetoric became pointless.
    The one time the Republicans won the popular vote they got a majority in the electoral college.
    In two out of six elections where the Democrats won the popular vote the Republicans won a majority in the electoral college. So yes, the EC does give an advantage to one side.
    He already has siphoned off funds to his campaign by giving his 2016 campaign ‘loans’ which were then paid back from the money contributed by his backers.
     
  13. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    34,040
    Location:
    Perhaps in transit
    Make a lynching joke. Mind breakingly stupid, but, Mississippi, so being elected Senator remains possible.
    Agree that making it more difficult for Democrats to vote is a good idea. Again, Mississippi, so not like it's the end of a GOP campaign.
    Moving on, today we get pictures of the Senator posing with Confederate artifacts that were posted to her Facebook, captioned "Mississippi history at its best!"

    Is this woman trying to make some sort of statement on how the GOP can carry Mississippi no matter what? Is there a 5th Avenue in Mississippi somewhere so she can shoot someone in the middle of it and outTrump Trump?

    The good news is that many big corporate donors are abandoning her, to the tune of WalMart actually demanding their money back. Hopefully some sort of precedent will be established and GOP candidates across the board will be struggling for cash.
     
    cardgame likes this.
  14. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Warlord Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2003
    Messages:
    9,385
    Location:
    Mid-Illinois
    I figured you might have, but I didn't see that post. I also chose a post from a moment when tempers were running very high - the day before Kavanaugh's confirmation, just after Collins tipped her hand and made it certain he was being rammed through despite everything. So I knew it was a little unfair at the outset.

    Not to minimize what happened, but the Georgia election managed to come within 1.5 points despite everything Kemp and the Georgia Republicans did, with a black woman running as an unapologetic liberal. The previous election was decided by an 8-point margin. That is a truly remarkable outcome and points to Georgia being winnable in the very near future despite foul play. It would not be surprising if their legislature would follow NC's lead had Abrams won or if the Dem wins in 4 years, but they can't do that for the President or Senate.

    My thinking on the Electoral College is borrowed from Nate Silver's reasoning on tipping-point states, probably one of my favorite concepts to come from that site. From an article on whether the Democrats are now doomed to an EC disadvantage:

    So, to illustrate, here's the tipping point state calculation for Obama's win in 2008. The columns are first the state/district, then its vote margin (D-R), then the running total number of EC votes they've won. Never really did figure out tables here so apologies for the bad alignment:

    DC +85.9 3
    HI +45.3 7
    VT +37.0 10
    RI +27.8 14
    NY +26.9 45
    [...]
    NH +9.6 262
    IA +9.5 269
    CO +9.0 278 <-- tipping point
    VA +6.3 291
    OH +4.6 311
    FL +2.8 338
    NE-02 +1.2 339
    IN +1.0 350
    NC +0.3 365

    Obama won the national PV by 7.3, so Silver's "electoral college advantage" is D+1.7. For 2012, it comes out to D+1.5. But for 2016, the tipping point state was WI at R+0.8, while the national PV was D+2.1, so the EC advantage was R+2.9.

    Here's every race since 1976. The article has everything going back to 1864. 2016 was based on preliminary totals; the tipping-point state ended up being WI by 0.8 instead of PA by 1.1, and the PV was D+2.1 instead of R+1.8. The 0.3's cancel, so R+2.9 remains the figure.



    As you can see, this measure of EC advantage flips back and forth between parties all the time, and there's no real pattern. Obama had the EC advantage in both of his elections because he was somewhat more popular in states that were likely to be close than in the nation as a whole. Trump was the same way.

    I'll also try to head off another argument at the pass - that the EC is inherently racist. At the moment, a candidate's chances are dominated by a cluster of disproportionately white Midwestern states (treating PA as Midwestern), with Florida and arguably NC as the only large swing states outside this cluster. But that's happenstance - it is not guaranteed to remain that way. If you project current trends for population and voting patterns into the future, swing states c. 2028 will likely be dominated by the Sun Belt cluster of AZ, TX, GA, FL (still...sigh), and NC, while the Midwest may move into generally being more Republican than the nation as a whole.

    None of this is to defend the EC as an institution. It causes votes from people who live in states that aren't likely to be close to just not matter at all. Hillary Clinton's negative swing in the Midwest was partially canceled by a positive swing in CA, AZ, and TX, so that she still won the PV by 2.1 points. But she lost a bunch of votes that count a whole lot and replaced them with worthless Californians and Texans. So the EC advantage flipped and now we have our first orange president.
     
  15. Takhisis

    Takhisis ΑΛΗΘΩС ΑΝΕСΤΗ

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    42,116
    Location:
    up yours!
    Even if the Waltons ask for their money back I suspect this person will get free coverage from Faux News praising her for ‘telling it like it is’.
     
  16. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Warlord Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2003
    Messages:
    9,385
    Location:
    Mid-Illinois
    Chris McDaniel, a fan of neo-Confederate organizations among other things on the far right, placed third in the first round with 16.5% of the vote. So Hyde-Smith is trying to woo his voters for the runoff. She is presumably concerned they'd just stay home, which would put her in a tighter spot given she was only barely ahead of Espy (41.5-40.6) in the first round. Apparently she's calculated that this sort of far-right posturing will gain her more votes than it will lose.

    I'm not sure about that, myself - either it works and she wins McDaniel's voters while not losing as many as she gains, or she loses enough first round voters and drives up black turnout enough to cause her to lose like Roy Moore.

    If I were her, I'd just play it safe. Mississippi statewide results almost always come out to around 57-43, with very little variation. Its black voters vote 98% Democrat, its white voters vote about 88% Republican, and the racial split is 58-37 white-black with only 5% of anyone else. So all Mississippi elections usually do is spit out a bunch of white-black percentages.

    But Alabama is usually polarized in exactly the same way, except with slightly more whites. We found out that there is an unlikely combination of factors that can result in a Democrat winning there, and I don't see why she wants to take that risk.

    All she has to do is run a garden-variety campaign with well-funded turnout efforts in white places and she'll win. McDaniel's voters aren't going to stay home and risk a black Democrat winning. Not most of them, anyway. Apparently she's more of a risk-taker, though, or just sincerely as bigoted as McDaniel.

    edit: Expanded post, changed some wording
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2018
  17. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    34,040
    Location:
    Perhaps in transit
    I hadn't looked. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the third party candidate was running on the Klan ticket, but I honestly am.
     
    caketastydelish likes this.
  18. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Warlord Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2003
    Messages:
    9,385
    Location:
    Mid-Illinois
    He actually ran as a Republican. Mississippi apparently runs its special elections like Louisiana runs all of its: a jungle primary on Election Day with a majority required to win outright, otherwise the top two advance to a runoff. Here's the Wiki article on this election.

    edit: And here is the article about McDaniel's first run for Senate. He came within a whisker of unseating Thad Cochran, losing in large part because of crossover voting for Cochran by black voters in the open primary. He was a little sore about that. ;)
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2018

Share This Page