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2018 U.S election

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Zkribbler, Jun 4, 2018.

  1. Berzerker

    Berzerker Warlord

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    I think since its based on future census data it involves the chance a state may or may not meet the thresh hold for an additional seat so there's some leeway.
     
  2. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    Except there isn't any leeway. Every seat gained has to come from somewhere.
     
  3. Berzerker

    Berzerker Warlord

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    there's gotta be a rational explanation ;)
     
  4. Broken_Erika

    Broken_Erika Nothing

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    Gerrymandering?
     
  5. Berzerker

    Berzerker Warlord

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    that wouldn't change the number of districts, just how the state's population is divvied up

    now I'm more curious as to why their numbers dont match up
     
  6. Broken_Erika

    Broken_Erika Nothing

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    is "electiondataservices" a government service?
     
  7. Berzerker

    Berzerker Warlord

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    I doubt it... I did get this from the study

    "The states marked by “&” are those where
    only one of the multiple projection lines
    showed a change. All other states were consistent in multiple projections."

    just below the predictions

    so they're using multiple projections, but thats strange
     
  8. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    What happens if neither democrats nor republicans get the number of state votes they need to become the ruling party? Is there any ability to form alliances with a third party that has won a state/a few states?
     
  9. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    You are close to seeing that now. The Republican hold on the Senate can barely get smaller. It comes down to who can poach a vote from the other side, eg John McCain on the ACA repeal.

    The winner-takes-the-prize nature of elections forces the two-party system. As a practical matter, you must align with one or the other.

    J
     
  10. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Warlord

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    If you're talking about the Presidency, our Constitution sets up a really weird system. If there's a tie in the Electoral College, the election is tossed into the House of Representatives, where each state's congressmen caucus and decide how to cast their state's one vote.

    In congressional elections, ties don't matter. If, say, the Senate is tied 50/50, then eh bien, it's tied 50/50. Each senator decides how (s)he will vote. There is no formal requirement that they adhere to the party line.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2018
  11. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    If the Republicans are allowed sole control of the government during the 2020 census, there will be no more free and fair elections in the United States.
     
  12. Berzerker

    Berzerker Warlord

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    the courts are already stepping in to block gerrymandering

    will the new census be done at the end of 2020 and before a new congress is sworn in?
     
  13. Arwon

    Arwon

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  14. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    Compared to a lot of other things that are going on I'd call that a minor blow. Which speaks a whole lot more about the other things that are going on. I would only be mildly surprised if Trump and the Republican congress announced sometime this summer that due to the government's inability to ensure the integrity of the electoral process the midterm election will have to be delayed.
     
  15. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Warlord

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    You know what's even more effective than gerrymandering? Deliberately undercounting the population in the census. The new census won't be complete until around 2021 but the Republicans are already changing the rules of how the census is operated and what questions they ask and massively underfunding it in order to make sure it doesn't work or works to their advantage.
    They've already floated the idea in the last round of special elections that they lost so yeah, I do find this plausible.
     
  16. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    Well, quite.

    Given the fact that we can take control of Congress and the state legislatures much faster than we can take control of the Supreme Court and lower courts, this doesn't really make it more difficult to change the status quo.
     
  17. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Here is a 2015 article on new seats, based on multiple projections.
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/updated-2020-reapportionment-projections/

    For those interested, here is the Census page on redistricting.
    https://www.census.gov/rdo/program_phases/2020_census_redistricting_data_program.html

    And something more user-friendly.
    https://www.census.gov/rdo/pdf/TheViewFromTheStates_2020.pdf

    Therein is the Republican strategy since about 1974. At that point, they had only the White House and that was temporary. Democrats had an iron grip on Congress and the most liberal Supreme Court in History.

    The Republicans put more resources into state-level candidates and infrastructure. Reagan flipped the south in 1980, but it took 20 years to retake Congress. Long before GW Bush was President, he was instrumental in amassing over 2/3 of the Governor's seats. Except for a short period, the Republicans have maintained equality in Congress, usually with a small edge. The last decade has seen over 1000 state-level seat flip to Republican. The thing that upsets thinking Democrats most is what this administration is doing and will do to the judiciary.

    A lot of people look at Trump as a one-off, because his own party does not like him. They are not seeing the generations of spade work in which his tree was planted. The Republican distaste is personal, because they love what Trump is doing. A lot of trading has gone into the last 40-50 years. Trump is using main force and giving the Democrats very little.

    If what you say is accurate, prepare yourself for a lot of wandering in the wilderness.

    J
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  18. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    The senate election is really strange. Currently it could end up at 42/58 or 52/48 for D/R or anything in between. And the house is even more uncertain. The democrats better not fall on their face in the last weeks of campaigning like in 2016.

    I've taken a look at the 2020 seats as well, and if all goes normally (the dems choose an at least ok candidate for presidency, that candidate beats Trump rather easily but not with Obama 08 margins) the dems can target CO NC GA and IA, while being mostly in danger in AL. That could make the senate a lot more safe for them going into the 2020s
     
  19. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Warlord

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    Prognosticator of Prognosticators Nate Silver :worship: sets the odds of the Democrats taking the House at 5 in 6 while their odds of taking the Senate are 1 in 3. He sets out two possible paths for a Dem Senate.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/

    I, however, have my eye set on a third path, centered on Texas Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke. :yeah:
    Beto is currently the underdog, but he's set his sights on what he needs to win. Demographically, Texas is a near twin to California. The reason Texas is a solidly red state while California is a solidly blue state is that in Texas, Hispanics don't vote while in California, they do. And when they vote, the vote heavily Democratic. Beto is making a massive effort to register and turn out the Hispanic vote.

    A poll by NBC News and Marist released last week had O’Rourke trailing by just 4 percentage points. An electronic poll released by Emerson College on Monday had the two candidates nearly tied, with Ted Cruz at 38 percent against O’Rourke’s 37 percent and more than a fifth of respondents undecided. So as Beto closes in on Cruz, the GOP is taking more and more money out of other Senate Races to prop him up.

    The more successful Beto becomes, the more other GOP candidates will be defunded. This could lead to a cascade effect, wherein the GOP will lose numerous senate seats. :D
     
  20. metatron

    metatron unperson

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