Building off downtown's thread, let's talk about which states we think will be the swing states, tossup states, and the tipping point in the 2016 presidential election. I'm noting the EVs in parentheses for ease of reference.
Tipping Point
The tipping point in 2008 and 2012 was Colorado (9), but given the demographic trends and strengthening local Democratic party, the tipping point could fall to Virginia (13), the runner-up in 2008, or Pennsylvania (20) or Ohio (18), the runners-up in 2012. If the Republicans hold the line with Hispanics or improve their standing, Colorado will likely hold its position.
The Current Swing States
I think Nevada (6) is likely to fall off the list of serious swing states unless the Republicans make serious progress in bridging the divide with Hispanic voters. Colorado (9) is also in this category--it's worth marginally more to contest since they lost it by slimmer margins and it has 50% more EVs. With limited resources, the Republican strategic choice is clear.
Iowa (6) will always be a swing state because campaigns get their start there--until that changes, it will be contested despite its social-moderate attitude and going Democratic in something like 6 of the last 7 elections--yes, it even went for Dukakis. Very similar case with New Hampshire (4), only it's 5/7 since it didn't vote for Dukakis. A socially moderate Republican has a shot at both of these, though.
Ohio (18) will likely remain a perennial battleground state, as will Florida (29). The parties both have strong local operations. Not much to say here besides duh, obvious.
Virginia (13) looks like it is trending more Democratic, leap-frogging other classic swing states like OH and FL. But it's still close and the Republicans can't afford to lose it; it's definitely in the mix for 2016.
North Carolina (15) will remain a swing state--it's the only serious swing state Obama lost in 2012, and he only lost it by 2ish points. The Democrats will try again, I'm sure.
Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10)... why were these considered swing states in the last election when they went for Democrats by more than six points? And Michigan nearly 10? Seriously, Georgia (16) was closer than Michigan and yet nobody called it a swing state.
New Swing States & Outside Possibilities
Pennsylvania (20) has long been the target of Republican last-minute campaign stops, but it's been reliably Democratic except in landslides. However, the Dems are starting to lose ground in the suburbs and the rural areas are voting even more strongly Republican, so if it is contested from the start in 2016 by a moderate Republican, it could be a legitimate swing state. Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10) are similar to the Pennsylvanian fools' gold, only with a stronger Democratic margin and thus a steeper hill to climb. I wouldn't count on all three, but PA and WI could be more swingy if the Republicans have a strong candidate and the Dems a weak one.
New Jersey (14) might make it to the swing state list if Chris Christie is the Republican nominee. Otherwise, I think it stays in the Republican camp. And even if it makes it to the swing list, I think it will lean Democratic.
Arizona (11) and Texas (38) are Democratic wet dreams in 2016. Although Arizona has a rapidly increasing Latino population and a growing urban population where the Dems should make gains, they also have a lot of old retirees moving into the state and a strong local Republican party that stave off the trends that flipped their neighbors. So long as Arpaio can win elections, it's staying in the Republican camp. Demographic trends may make Texas a good target for the Dems by 2024, but 2016 is too soon. They will be talked about early in the campaign, but will ultimately stay Republican unless it's a more massive landslide than in 2008.
Indiana (11) was a shocker in 2008, and with the exception of a rape gaffe looked like it was trending strongly Republican in 2012. I wouldn't count on the Senate upset as indicative of a shift, especially since the Republicans should avoid poor-quality candidates for national offices in the future. Likely to remain Republican in 2016 unless there is big landslide (although slightly less massive than for AZ and TX). Missouri (10) is similar.
My Final 2016 List
So here's what I think we will be watching election night 2016, if the race is reasonably close:
The Key States:
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Basically, take off Nevada and the Great Lakes, and the last 3 are a little more iffy.
Additional States for Trendline-Watching:
Texas (38)
Pennsylvania (20)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Minnesota (10)
These are my honorable mentions, so to speak, and could also be considered 2020/2024 swing state candidates.
Tipping Point
The tipping point in 2008 and 2012 was Colorado (9), but given the demographic trends and strengthening local Democratic party, the tipping point could fall to Virginia (13), the runner-up in 2008, or Pennsylvania (20) or Ohio (18), the runners-up in 2012. If the Republicans hold the line with Hispanics or improve their standing, Colorado will likely hold its position.
The Current Swing States
I think Nevada (6) is likely to fall off the list of serious swing states unless the Republicans make serious progress in bridging the divide with Hispanic voters. Colorado (9) is also in this category--it's worth marginally more to contest since they lost it by slimmer margins and it has 50% more EVs. With limited resources, the Republican strategic choice is clear.
Iowa (6) will always be a swing state because campaigns get their start there--until that changes, it will be contested despite its social-moderate attitude and going Democratic in something like 6 of the last 7 elections--yes, it even went for Dukakis. Very similar case with New Hampshire (4), only it's 5/7 since it didn't vote for Dukakis. A socially moderate Republican has a shot at both of these, though.
Ohio (18) will likely remain a perennial battleground state, as will Florida (29). The parties both have strong local operations. Not much to say here besides duh, obvious.
Virginia (13) looks like it is trending more Democratic, leap-frogging other classic swing states like OH and FL. But it's still close and the Republicans can't afford to lose it; it's definitely in the mix for 2016.
North Carolina (15) will remain a swing state--it's the only serious swing state Obama lost in 2012, and he only lost it by 2ish points. The Democrats will try again, I'm sure.
Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10)... why were these considered swing states in the last election when they went for Democrats by more than six points? And Michigan nearly 10? Seriously, Georgia (16) was closer than Michigan and yet nobody called it a swing state.
New Swing States & Outside Possibilities
Pennsylvania (20) has long been the target of Republican last-minute campaign stops, but it's been reliably Democratic except in landslides. However, the Dems are starting to lose ground in the suburbs and the rural areas are voting even more strongly Republican, so if it is contested from the start in 2016 by a moderate Republican, it could be a legitimate swing state. Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10) are similar to the Pennsylvanian fools' gold, only with a stronger Democratic margin and thus a steeper hill to climb. I wouldn't count on all three, but PA and WI could be more swingy if the Republicans have a strong candidate and the Dems a weak one.
New Jersey (14) might make it to the swing state list if Chris Christie is the Republican nominee. Otherwise, I think it stays in the Republican camp. And even if it makes it to the swing list, I think it will lean Democratic.
Arizona (11) and Texas (38) are Democratic wet dreams in 2016. Although Arizona has a rapidly increasing Latino population and a growing urban population where the Dems should make gains, they also have a lot of old retirees moving into the state and a strong local Republican party that stave off the trends that flipped their neighbors. So long as Arpaio can win elections, it's staying in the Republican camp. Demographic trends may make Texas a good target for the Dems by 2024, but 2016 is too soon. They will be talked about early in the campaign, but will ultimately stay Republican unless it's a more massive landslide than in 2008.
Indiana (11) was a shocker in 2008, and with the exception of a rape gaffe looked like it was trending strongly Republican in 2012. I wouldn't count on the Senate upset as indicative of a shift, especially since the Republicans should avoid poor-quality candidates for national offices in the future. Likely to remain Republican in 2016 unless there is big landslide (although slightly less massive than for AZ and TX). Missouri (10) is similar.
My Final 2016 List
So here's what I think we will be watching election night 2016, if the race is reasonably close:
The Key States:
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Basically, take off Nevada and the Great Lakes, and the last 3 are a little more iffy.
Additional States for Trendline-Watching:
Texas (38)
Pennsylvania (20)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Minnesota (10)
These are my honorable mentions, so to speak, and could also be considered 2020/2024 swing state candidates.
