A Third October Surprise: New Bin Laden Tape

[Capulet]

I think that Bush will ultimately be hurt by this. Kerry can just say, 'If I were President, Osama bin Laden would have been dead by now.'

I think that the timing of this is peculiar too; I think that Osama wants Bush to win because hes done a good job of making the Middle East more angry at America, which means Al-Qaeda will have an easier time recruiting more members. Osama thinks he will help Bush by doing this.

 

[Chieftess]

What were the first two surprises?

 

[Capulet]

Actually there were four

I missed the first one.

First - Rehnquist diagonosed with cancer

Second - Missing Explosives in Iraq

Third - Halliburton is investigated by the FBI

Fourth - Osama Tape

 

[stormbind]

It is known that Osama bin Laden does not trust technology. He won't allow mobile phones to be near him, and he uses only rudimentary recording devices. There is no doubt that he would avoid a modern city and it's broadcast stations.

The best theory I have heard is that he's in China, and there is evidence to suggest the US government have known this for a very long time but is too weak to negotiate his eviction.

Osama bin Laden probably doesn't care who wins the election, because the US policy is completely boxed-in anyway - nothing will change in 2005.

 

[blindside]

It is known that Osama bin Laden does not trust technology. He won't allow mobile phones to be near him, and he uses only rudimentary recording devices. There is no doubt that he would avoid a modern city and it's broadcast stations.

The best theory I have heard is that he's in China, and there is evidence to suggest the US government have known this for a very long time but is too weak to negotiate his eviction.

Osama bin Laden probably doesn't care who wins the election, because the US policy is completely boxed-in anyway - nothing will change in 2005.

Rudimentary technology as in GPS phone devices or rocket launchers or computers? And hes probably in Pakistan. Pakistan's crawling with these characters.

 

[stormbind]

Rudimentary technology as in GPS phone devices or rocket launchers or computers?

GPS phone devices and computers do not record to VHS tapes

And hes probably in Pakistan. Pakistan's crawling with these characters.

He would be sold out in Pakistan. The crowd is too large for it not to contain at least one enemy; north-west China is far more remote.

 

[BasketCase]

So, what's changed?? Before this new tape came out, people were already saying "we should be sending our troops after Osama instead of Saddam". Never mind that we already had Special Forces troops searching for Osama, and never mind that sending the troops after him means probably crossing the borders of other "sovereign" nations--maybe China.

The best course for Osama, and for the Arab world as a whole, would be to just put the bombs away and put up with America. One terrorist attack on U.S. soil, and look at the results: Saddam and the Taliban are toast. Osama's gonna obliterate the entire Arab world within his lifetime at the rate he's going.

 

[stormbind]

So, what's changed?

The US is out of money and cannot justify invading a country.

In older videos, Osama bin Laden depicted himself as a militant, now he is depicting himself as the prime muslim spiritual leader (deduced from his change of clothing).

 

[King Alexander]

I don't believe anything that I see from tapes and I'm not reffering only to the later tapes; most of them are fake anyway.

I could produce dozens of these tapes if I find a few persons looking/speaking/dressing like the guys in it, and we already have the technology to produce fake videos who look like real.

 

[BasketCase]

The US is out of money and cannot justify invading a country.

People said the same thing when we invaded Afghanistan (and in a lot of other wars, actually). If Osama blows something up again, we won't care about the money, and Osama himself will have provided the justification.

Or, if Arab terrorists push us too far and we lose our thin veneer of "nice", we'll simply nuke them off the map.

Edit: King Alex has it pretty much on the money; I was about to say "okay, so Osama isn't dead after all" (I semi-share DBear's theory that Osama would be making videotapes if he was alive), but it's so easy to fake a tape these days.....

 

[Drewcifer]

Or, if Arab terrorists push us too far and we lose our thin veneer of "nice", we'll simply nuke them off the map.

This is sick. You would kill millions of innocents to prosecute the war on terror? That would be more evil than anything Osama has done.

 

[stormbind]

It's easy to make a fake video, but still impossible to make a fake video that cons experts.

US forces are killing millions of innocents, assumed guilty - it's in another thread.

 

[BasketCase]

This is sick. You would kill millions of innocents to prosecute the war on terror? That would be more evil than anything Osama has done.

No, I personally wouldn't. At least, I don't think so. But there's a slim chance that if you piled a whole lot of personal disaster on me, I might snap, and take an AK-47 to the grocery store and send a few people to life's Final Express Check-Out Line. There's a slim chance you'd do the same thing.

Imagine if we Americans became like Osama or the Chinese government or North Korea or whoever. Picture the United States with a strong military, nuclear weapons--and minus its moral compass. Nations can change for the worse as well as for the better.

The Roman Empire didn't exactly play nice. Very few nations in its time did. Back then, conquered cities would sometimes be wiped off the map--razed right to the ground, and EVERYONE in them killed. Men, women, children.

In some nations, wars are STILL fought this way. Fifty years from now, America or England or any other nation could turn out to be one.

 

[stormbind]

England hasn't been a nation since 1707. The odds of England being a nation in 50 years are slim; both UK and EU are more likely.

 

[BasketCase]

Great Britain then. Minor detail.

 

[stormbind]

Great Britain hasn't existed as a nation since 1801. Like I said, it's the UK

 

[BasketCase]

The Roman Empire didn't exactly play nice. Very few nations in its time did. Back then, conquered cities would sometimes be wiped off the map--razed right to the ground, and EVERYONE in them killed. Men, women, children.

In some nations, wars are STILL fought this way. Fifty years from now, America or

FRANCE

or any other nation could turn out to be one.

Can we get back to the debate now???

 

[stormbind]

I accept that any population might 'crack' and behave out of character for a period of reprisal.

This is why I maintain that no nation can be trusted to maintain nuclear warheads.

 

[Chairman Meow]

The Roman Empire didn't exactly play nice. Very few nations in its time did. Back then, conquered cities would sometimes be wiped off the map--razed right to the ground, and EVERYONE in them killed. Men, women, children.

The difference is that the Roman Empire never had nuclear weapons (except in Civ...)

 

[General Joey]

What do you mean they don't raze cities anymore? The Mongols have just wiped the Aztec capitol off the earth!