So I did some basic math today, and without having the game on me, I'm hoping that I get all of this correct. :/
If we settle on the red dot, we would get immediate access to the cows and rice. Rice can be farmed right away, and then when AH comes in we can put a pasture on the cows. With those two tiles improved and working the gems, we would still be at +2F which would give us the ability to work a specialist in the city, or another hill.
If we settle 1E of the rice, we lose instant access to the cows and would have to wait for a border pop before being able to improve them. Granted, since we are CRE that would only be 5 turns, and after farming the rice, AH should pretty much be in. We would lose 3 wet grass, 1 dry grass + 1 lake to possibly work for a gain of 1 grass hill, 1 dry grass and 3 coast. Those 3 coasts aren't workable until we have fishing, we wouldn't get trade routes until Sailing and then extra food only once a LH was built. Is it really more beneficial to settle a coastal city this early as opposed to one that can grow faster? Plus, it doesn't look like we will be prioritizing Fishing or Sailing anytime soon, the only way we would possibly get them would be trades once Alpha is in, and that's turns away.
Now that I think about it a bit more, we aren't trading too much by settling 1E, except for the ability to set up a bunch of cottages that both this town and our capital could work. I'm unsure how focused on cottaging we are at the moment, but that really is the only thing I can see as a downfall for settling that way. (Please let me know if I'm over analyzing this, trying to be as helpful as possible while still picking up learning things).
In regards to our 3rd city, considering how close Izzy is to us, it looks like we should snag some land from her before she boxes us in. If she's got her eye on that site, just like us, than I'm unsure if we will be able to beat her there in time. Plus, it's a bit of a ways away, and would put a number on our econ, yes?
I'm in agreement that we still should go TW>AH and then see what happens. Here's to hoping that we find horses someplace close by, otherwise we're going to have to self tech Arch, yes? It seems like everything is up in the air until AH comes in and lets us know what our future has in store for us.