ALC Game 17: Russia/Peter

[Porphyrius]

First off, I think you should replace your southern warrior with your first axe. This gives you a chance to grab a settler if one tries to sneak up later on if you're about to declare war anyway.

Oldie but goodie, brings up devilish memories. Sadly, too oldie as in by now obsolete, you only get a worker for your troubles now it seems...


Anyhow, Ragnar has a triplet it seems, making over 35 in his capital. Makes anybody wat to be a builder.
The good news is he doesnt have horses or copper. He probably has no iron too, as he must have researche IW by now, which is quite weird. Not that i mind...
The bad news is this a quite a slow buildup. So the only way forward now is to rush out a dozen axes ASAP. The economical shape will get a tidbit better when the cities connect, hopefully good enough. The only logical option is to settle Validators wheat city now, the canal one still need calendar that ll take a while.

I run a short shadow backtrack of the ALC so far to get solid proof behind my feeling that poor micromanagment early can hurt badly. (I didnt play ahead, thus no spoilers but some may feel its clutter):

Spoiler :

I mostly just optimized micromanagment, changing the order of the researched techs a bit but getting all but the partialy researched mysticism (Ag->AH->BW along with puting Wr in the very end)
Everything else 5 warriors for fb, the general order Sc/Work/5 War/Work/Set/Set unchanged except building the 3rd scout (couldnt pop it) and half building barracks while i wanted to grow.

the quite impressive results:
-St Pet build 1810BC instead of 1540BC
-conected cities at 1600BC instead of still working on it 1300BC
-at 1570BC copper is 5 turns are left to finish writing and 4 turns to finish a second settler. Each city has a roughly half built barracks as well.
(I stopped here without writing and scouting as i didnt want to build new units/buildings)

Therefore one can substantialy improve building/settling/improving by micromanaging, no serious difference in research thoough as economical stagnation hit me as hard as Sisiutil, i had no tiles to work.

 

[Softnum]

Also, why don't you run binomial research? -SNIP-

PS- I play vanilla, does binomail research help in Warlords? If so, ignore above paragraph .

I don't think anyone said this, so I'll go ahead and answer, but, your PS suspicion is correct. In Warlords everything is rounded out two decimal places, so the effect of binomial research (And a lot of other plays with rounding errors) is minimal.

 

[futurehermit]

I regret not chiming in on this game before the 2nd round was played.

How I would've approached things:

1) The copper is not in the best location and claiming it (as you did) would cost substantial maintenance. Furthermore, the Vikings are quite far away (again, high maintenance). Therefore, I would forget axe-rushing.

2) There is a lot of food making for a perfect SE imo. There is a 3-fish site. It would be perfect for running a huge pile of specialists and would be great for the GL...but it is production-poor, how to manage that?

3) Chop out the great wall. No need to worry about barbs and you can build in peace. Use a GE on the GL in the 3-fish city.

4) Prioritize CoL to finance the expansion of your chunk of the landmass and then monarchy for hereditary rule (by trade or self-research). Then run a huge pile of scientists in capital and 3-fish-GL city under caste system and pacificism.

5) Beeline cossacks--this series is about showcasing all the leader's got, right? With cossacks you could claim the Viking and Ottoman empires and then probably settle down to beeline computers--again with a lot of lightbulbing.

That is how I would've approached it. I won't do a shadow-game but I think it would produce better results than axe-rushing the Vikings (as you mentioned, it will be costly and who's to say he won't be taking feudalism off of the oracle...he's in perfect position to do it: 3 gems + marble). But I will be following this game with interest.

 

[sneaky]

futurehermit, you make some good points. Maybe we did all sort of go through the motions and went with the whole Axe-rush approach without enough regard for the available land and the future maintenance costs. Sometimes peacefully building an empire isn't that bad.

Also, rushing the Vikings isn't as obvious a strategy now, as it was a round ago. With a much larger continent than expected, there should be more than enough room for Ragnar and us, and we aren't facing a civ refusing to trade because of monopoly anyway.

Looking back, I don't know what would have been the best approach, but it sure is making the game interesting, and I am certainly existed to see where this path will take us.

 

[Sisiutil]

Well, one common thing I've seen the BetterAI do is build up its military if it anticipates an invasion. It will go bat-s*** crazy building Archers and any other good unit it has available in its capital if you snag a worker and/or fortify a Woodsman Warrior nearby. That makes it very hard to capture the city with a few Axes--heck, it makes it tough even if you have Catapults! So don't go looking for me to be anything but real pleasant to Ragnar until I'm ready to pounce with about a dozen Axemen. He may still build up Archers in his capital, but maybe if he's lulled into a false sense of security he won't.

I think, however, that the BetterAI pays close attention to the power graph and responds in kind--if a neighbour starts a military build-up, it does the same. Thus, I've noticed early military rushes to be more difficult than without the BetterAI, whereas medieval and later military rushes are still very effective.

Why? More types of units allow you to do a "hidden" queue build. Once you switch to the "war civics" and start letting the pre-built units come out to play, your power rating skyrockets faster than the AI can respond. The medieval era is particularly good for this, as it seems to have the greatest number of genuinely useful units: Catapults, Longbowmen, Trebuchets, Pikemen, Macemen, Crossbowmen, and Knights, and often War Elephants and Musketmen too. Compare that to the Renaissance era, where you really only have 4 units (Grenadiers, Riflemen, Cannon, Cavalry).

In the ancient era, you really just have Axemen, maybe Chariots and Spearmen, but the latter two are of limited utility for capturing cities. You can't really queue-load in the ancient era, and without the XP-bonus civics, there isn't much point. So you have to build and whip your Axes and leave them standing around until you have enough, which gives the AI plenty of time to say, "uh-oh" and make plans to respond.

Anyway, once the 3rd city is settled the Axe-buildup begins. Stay tuned.

 

[budweiser]

Whoa! Wait a minute. Don't forget swordsmen! They are better than axes for taking out cities.

Since there is some debate about pressing the attack or waiting, I suggest checking for iron, and attack with swords. They are much better at taking cities, which is the goal here.

 

[Validator]

I had a chance to think about it a little more and I'm going to change my advice on where to build the next city.

I read the comments about 12 axes being needed which got me wondering how big an army of axes I would want to build. I did a little test in worldbuilder and discovered that CR1 axes have very low odds against even unpromoted archers in a city with 60% defense (around 18% IIRC). Since Ragnar has cheap barracks I would expect to see archers with at least CG1. Based on that I would want to have an army with at least 3:1 numerical advantage to try to take Nidaros. This could easily mean 15+ axes against a city defended by the BetterAI. My first thought was that that would be ok. Building that many axes won't be a problem with 3 strong production cities. Then it occurred to me that there is a big problem, namely having a strong enough economy to support that large an army.

In the last game the buildup of the immortal army practically killed research and in fact I think the reason the buildup stopped was to avoid going bankrupt. And that army wasn't 15+ units. So I've concluded that building up the economy is more important at this point than getting another production city going. For that reason I would recommend sending the new settler to found the triple fur city up in the ice. It won't have much production if the three fur tiles are worked, but it will provide a major boost in commerce.

I would still try to get a settler out at some point to found the wheat/cow/fish/fur city since by working the fur and fish it can generate enough commerce to pay for itself. And it will still have good production potential by working the cows and two mines at size 5.

Even though the axe strategy seems risky I'm just not sure that you can play peacefully for the time being and expect to be competitive. With his 3 gems Ragnar's early tech rate is going to be phenomenal, and I don't see any way to get Construction before he gets LBs. I don't like the odds of playing peacefully for longer than that against the BetterAI. Based on the dotmaps that have presented so far it's hard to see how more than 7 cities can be built on the northern landmass (and even a couple of those are marginal cities that are squeezing in without much in the way of resources). I don't know if you can develop a strong enough economy (SE or CE) to compete with that small an empire, especially if the continent does indeed widen in the south. Could you avoid falling far behind a BetterAI Mehmed with a 12 city empire?

 

[OTAKUjbski]

I'm with Validator here. I was thinking bits and pieces of what he said, but he put it together much more eloquently.

If just five Warriors is hitting the economy this hard, 15 Axemen is going to crumble it.

Given the distance to Nidaros, the first wave MUST take it down. Otherwise it's GG. This means even more Axemen than we think we need (see above point).

That being said, I think going down to 0% to capture Nidaros is well worth it. We can see already what all those Gems are doing for Ragnar -- imagine what they'll do for us!

 

[budweiser]

But...


What about swordsmen?

 

[OldDays]

Sorry guys, but everyone not suggesting taking the 3-gems-city ASAP!!! (or even earlier) is just plain bananas

I bet Ragnar is allready starting to leave us behind in the dust research-wise. We are unable to compete peacefully in any way, but there is a good chance that we can snag the capital by brute force and supreme numbers. I think it really is the only way to go in this situation. It is quite risky but the reward will be just to good to be true

Just trust Sisiutils divine warmonger skills!

 

[jerVL/kg]

Chopping a library & running 2 scientists in Moscow should fix all your economy woes. The big problem is that Moscow's been whipped down to size 2!! You'll need to let the city grow back to at least size 5, which means building no more settlers/workers there for awhile. I'd still settle wheat/cow city first -- it's on a plains hill, so it can whip/chop new workers & settlers lickety-split. It also has furs to work, and getting the fish harvested will add +2 as well.

Ragnar has sailing -- see if he'll trade gems for cows. I concur that he probably has IW by now (and therefore no iron, probably) but he's still quite far from feudalism...for now. Once he revolts to HR, you'll know he's getting close!

Does the BetterAI prioritize Alphabet now? If not, making a beeline for that tech would be crucial.

Has anyone checked the garrison in Nidros? None of the screenshots show it.

 

[manu-fan]

Let me echo Buweiser's sentiment. What about Swordsmen? Let's get Iron Working and see where Iron appears before hastily Axe rushing (ruining economy).

Cheers.

 

[Validator]

Chopping a library & running 2 scientists in Moscow should fix all your economy woes.

Not really, since the beakers from the scientists can not be converted into gold to pay maintenance costs for the army. That requires commerce (or merchant specialists but I don't see that happening in time for an axe rush). As it is Sisiutil has very little commerce and I don't think the two furs at wheat and copper cities will be enough.

 

[jerVL/kg]

Sorry guys, but everyone not suggesting taking the 3-gems-city ASAP!!! (or even earlier) is just plain bananas

A great man once said: "It's the economy, stupid!"

You can beat Civ4 with a weak military and strong economy. With a strong military but a weak economy, though, you are bound to lose. What good does it do to build a massive axe army if they'll all desert before they reach the Viking capital???

Heck, I'd be inclined to pull back all your fogbusters for now -- it'll save a ton on maintenance costs, and the barbs will give your chariots & axes free XP. Heck, maybe the barbs will even found the deer/fur city for us (though I wouldn't count on it...I'm more concerned about Mehmed or Raggy sneaking a galley party up there.)

 

[Validator]

Let me echo Buweiser's sentiment. What about Swordsmen? Let's get Iron Working and see where Iron appears before hastily Axe rushing (ruining economy).

The problem is that since Sisiutil prioritized Writing he skipped some necessary infrastructure techs (Mysticism, Fishing, Pottery) and given the current science rate by the time he finishes them the axe rush will already be under way. And in fact even if he researches IW right away and finds he has a source of iron it'll be too late to build up an army. Perhaps if he had researched IW instead of Writing...

 

[budweiser]

And in fact even if he researches IW right away and finds he has a source of iron it'll be too late to build up an army. Perhaps if he had researched IW instead of Writing...

No, the pen is mightier.

But he wrote, and whipped with no granary to back it up. This is an unforgiving map.

 

[Validator]

Heck, I'd be inclined to pull back all your fogbusters for now -- it'll save a ton on maintenance costs, and the barbs will give your chariots & axes free XP.

IIRC the current army is only costing 1GPT in support and 1 GPT in supply so it would be hard to save "a ton".

And as to gaining XP from barbs that's nice, but Sisiutil would have to actually build some chariots and axes first.

Seriously, with the current fog-busting situation Sisiutil doesn't have to worry about building military right now and can instead focus on getting infrastructure built. In the long run that should pay off.

 

[BARBEERIAN]

5/6 axes and a chariot should be enough to take Nidaros if you're quick about it. Since you can expose the border to his capital easily and road to about 3 tiles away from hitting the city if you strike quick he'll die easily to a small force. You have to be quick though, you should get a 3rd city up and then start cranking some axes. The minute you have 6 axes in your border city rush Nidaros (and slave a chariot or two to catch up with the stack).

Spoiler :

In my shadow game I settled 2 cities (the copper and the 3 fish) and then sent 6 axes + 2 chariots to Nidaros and took it. By 600 BC Ragnar and the Vikings were no no more. Nidaros was an easy take for a capital at that point. I had open borders with him and peeked and he only had 2 archers (3 when i got there).

 

[futurehermit]

If you're going to take out Nidaros pre-construction you have to do it asap. If he gets feudalism: "good luck with that"...even with swords.

I really think you would've been better off settling your chunk of land and running mass specialists than going for a rush in this case. That way you are putting Ragnar's excelerated tech pace to good use. He becomes an excellent short-term trading partner, especially if you can sour relations between him and the other AIs. You lightbulb, he techs at an excelerated pace. Shut down trades with him once you start lightbulbing key techs that you want to keep from him. Then...BAM...you hit him with cavalry and his civilization blinks out in the wink of an eye

But, what's done is done. Currently, I would suggest that you have paid a lot to get the copper so you might as well put it to use. You've stretched to claim copper so set research to 0, chop/whip a huge army, as big as you can muster and march it to Nidaros. As has been mentioned those gems will help you recover (along with lightbulbing, once you start putting it into action).

If the AI pulls ahead in tech in the meantime, you know what techs to avoid lightbulbing and lightbulb others instead

 

[jerVL/kg]

As it is Sisiutil has very little commerce and I don't think the two furs at wheat and copper cities will be enough.

What would you recommend instead, then? Cottages?

I'm not so concerned about unit maintenance as I am about the tech rate. Mysticisim is 1/2 finished but will take another 15 turns to complete -- that is bad, bad, BAD. And it will only get worse once city #3 is founded. Just imagine how long IW/HBR will take!!!

That said, I still think it should be Blue Dot first. At size 1, Blue Dot can build a worker in 15 turns -- the worker can then chop an obelisk, followed by either a work boat or a settler. (We've only got 2 workers atm...we need more.) Another worker can chop the Moscow library, while the 3rd starts roading the eastern furs and chopping the obelisk/work boats at St. Petes.

I don't like the idea of founding deer/crab city first...as you said, that city has very low production, and will require a worker (or two!) to hook up the deer & fur. Plus you'll need to build a road there. Sure, it'll become a commerce mecca...someday. But I wouldn't found a city there until you can build an obelisk immediately.

IIRC the current army is only costing 1GPT in support and 1 GPT in supply so it would be hard to save "a ton".

Ah, good point.

Serves me right for making specific comments when I can't view the save...