Alternate History Thread III

das said:
That's quite my point, it only lasted for four years. Don't really have it in me to keep arguing on this point, but I still doubt that the technologic gap is that unbridgeable. In the end it still is all down to the resources that are available for the development and application for.
I'll note the reason for that is because of rather extreme penetration of the Manhatten Project, which has not been replicated in most major breakthroughs since, and the single-mindedness of Stalin in copying superior technology (such as the B-29 and Rolls Royce jet engines). Furthermore, the Soviet Union was the only country to possess it other than the United States for quite sometime. Both the British and French programs were assisted by the US, and China didn't develop their own bomb until the late 1960s, and then with Soviet assistance themselves. Had the program been better guarded, it would have taken all parties involved much longer to catch up.

I would also note that the Soviet Union was a fellow superpower; a title no other country can today claim. Interestingly, no other country can keep up with American military developments today either, and it is rapidly running away with the military technology lead, while its potential competitors (for example, China) are once again forced to adopt strategies to counter its technology. Coincidence? I think not.

Sufficiently advanced technology forces your enemies to move to counter your advantages. If this technology is far enough ahead as to confer an overwhelming benefit (say, for example, this) then even those counter-strategies no longer work because it becomes so advanced as to render the user nigh invulnerable. Think of Cortez and his 200 men beating the Aztec Empire (admittedly, they were aided incalculably by disease, but they did fight some fairly hairy battles against vastly greater numbers; as did Pizarro). There's a reason Arthur C. Clark once said "Sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

das said:
And one more thing, I wouldn't call the atomic bomb a "war-winning weapon"; it was only used in WWII, and not in any decisive fashion. It merely sped up what was by then inevitable; I'm not even sure that Operation Olympic would have really been necessary. Other examples of "war-winning weapons" - at least those that immediately come to mind - also have never actually been "war-winning", merely helpful, as the winners were always assisted by many other far more significant factors.
Any war that was started with it in that timespan or thereafter against an opponent with fewer of them or lacking adequate delivery systems would very quickly be won. Whether a war was won with the weapon is immaterial; whether it can be won is what is important in the context of NESing.

For example, something only a power with sufficient space technology (read: United States or Russia) can do. If the United States really wanted to have a simple conclusion to the Middle East problem, it would smuggle several thruster and guidance packages into the NASA launch schedule, fit them to a suitable sized asteroid, and very gradually and subtly alter its course before GPS guiding it down onto say, Tehran. Afterwards you can dismiss it as a terribly unfortunate natural accident and pledge greater funding to the search for Near Earth Objects, and what will your enemies say? That you can smite them with space debris?

Or, say, an engineered bacteria that's a hybrid of oil-cleanup bacteria and deep, geological bacteria suddenly finds itself into the oil wells of most major oil producing countries...

These are examples of something you want to keep hidden. If you want to be obvious the potentials are even greater. These are examples of weapons which are difficult if not impossible to stop and which require a very strong technological base to deploy. Uganda is not going to be able to drop space rocks on people on a whim, and neither, for that matter, is even the European Union or China (and likely not Russia either).

This is without going into your ordinary, conventional weapons. For example, a single F-22 Raptor can easily counter and destroy four or more F-15 Eagles, despite the fact they were its immediate predecessor. What might it do to older technology, like say, the Su-21? Did you know the last recorded instance of prop-fighter combat? Soccer War, 1969. While America was carpet-bombing Vietnam with B-52s and dropping napalm from Mach 2-capable F-4s, Guatemala and Honduras were fighting with WWII vintage P-51 Mustangs. I hear there are still T-34/85s lingering around in certain African states.

Modern technology is expensive, not just to buy and operate, but most especially to develop. This is why Europeans tend to cooperate on developing new hardware, and why most countries buy either from them, the Americans, or the Russians (in fact, several countries export precisely to make up for development costs). As technology becomes more intricate and advanced, it will only become more expensive, and this trend will only continue. Like it or not, the future belongs to the person with the best gear, because beyond a certain point, all the tactics, strategy, and training in the world will not be able to counter the sheer advantage of having superior equipment if it is advanced enough compared to that of the opposition. The technocrat wins.

Starting a NES with highly-developed technology is therefore a bad idea unless one is willing to be very precise in their handling with it, because it, more than anything else, will make and break the game (see, for example, Goober giving Stormbringer anti-matter weaponry... that game should have ended that turn).

das said:
I'd agree, but the same could be said for a Russian invasion of British India, and yet that notion seems to have weighed on the minds of British political leaders and military commanders considerably.
Given the rather token coastal patrols the United States did field earlier in the war, I don't imagine anybody really cared much. The best the Japanese could accomplish would be a raid on a major naval base like San Diego or San Francisco, and quite frankly they couldn't even do that. It'd be like Normandy made about a million times more difficult; vastly greater distance, vastly greater opposition (civilian and military). American airpower advantage alone would be enough to destroy any such enterprise, ignoring ground forces; you can't sink a terrestrial airbase.
 
admittedly, they were aided incalculably by disease, but they did fight some fairly hairy battles against vastly greater numbers

"Vastly greater numbers"? That is only if we forget that the ones who did all the trully important fighting for Cortez were the Tlaxcallans and other native tribes, which, from what I recall, weren't outnumbered by the Aztecs at all - not "vastly", anyway.

Like it or not, the future belongs to the person with the best gear, because beyond a certain point, all the tactics, strategy, and training in the world will not be able to counter the sheer advantage of having superior equipment if it is advanced enough compared to that of the opposition.

I'm not talking about tactics, strategy or training here, I'm talking about sheer economic might. That is what almost always wins in the end, whilst innovation - whether tactical, formational, technological or whatever - merely grants a temporary advantage before it is adapted by other nations capable of adapting it. Still, I suppose I see your point... Not sure if I see how it is relevant to the discussion itself, though, as there doesn't appear to be any terrible technogap between the primary great powers in the Japanese Empire althist.

India uber alles!!!! I want Indiastan.

Knew you'd say that.

So, Azale, I presume you will be working on stats now, right?

EDIT: Btw, I hate reservations, but if you're going to have those, I'd like to reserve the USSR. I have some ideas for it.
 
das said:
I'm talking about sheer economic might. That is what almost always wins in the end, whilst innovation - whether tactical, formational, technological or whatever - merely grants a temporary advantage before it is adapted by other nations capable of adapting it.
Right, except economy powers technology. That's why the United States has the advantages it does OTL: it has the biggest economy so it also has the most tech. One notices that countries with long, sustained economic power (such as say, Japan, or Germany) also tend to be fairly high-tech. Economic might contributes to it, that's why it's so damn powerful; it won't be some high-tech country against an economically powerful one, they'll be one and the same.

You'll notice, in NES2 VI, that's part of how I was able to leverage my country into a military machine: by spending all that newfound money into technology to keep an edge. It's a cumulative thing--once you get it you can keep on propagating it to create an endless cycle. It's not quite that dramatic in the real world but the overall effect is much the same.

Not sure if I see how it is relevant to the discussion itself, though, as there doesn't appear to be any terrible technogap between the primary great powers in the Japanese Empire althist.
They do have rather different technological advantages, though they're not stated that clearly or well-elaborated upon. As an example, the whole idea of the Americans using their orbital bombardment system to try and hit Japanese submarine carriers was just painfully stupid. It generally just does a bad job at explaining the tech after a certain point (as well as making silly statements, like lasers rendering planes useless; you could just use metamaterial sheathes to redirect beams or utilize optical or radar cloaking therefrom [or perhaps plasma stealth] to evade notice in the first place... can't shoot what you can't see).
 
Right, except economy powers technology.

Precisely what I said a while ago; pay attention please. If there are several leading states capable of competing with each other economically, they are able to compete with each other technologically as well; therefore, such a world would be multipolar; and I do believe that there are several great powers in the althist in question that meet this requirement.

I do agree that there are flaws in the tech descriptions there, which, I believe, is why silver asked you to develop a better tech tree way back. As for lasers and planes, that's a classic case of a short-term technologic advantage/innovation; after a few initial incidents, pretty much everyone will probably adapt one of the solutions you had proposed here.
 
Precisely what I said a while ago; pay attention please. If there are several leading states capable of competing with each other economically, they are able to compete with each other technologically as well; therefore, such a world would be multipolar; and I do believe that there are several great powers in the althist in question that meet this requirement.
It would still be generally biased towards the stronger of them--there's never such a thing as a dead heat in power. But I guess we can come to a vague sort of agreement and let it lie.

I do agree that there are flaws in the tech descriptions there, which, I believe, is why silver asked you to develop a better tech tree way back.
To be fair, I actually offered to do so in return for the United States (I withdrew that requirement later) but never got around to it. On the other hand, he didn't seem particularly interested in modding it either. It'd be a lot of work doing both civilian and military tech anyway, and since Azale seems to be going for that other idea, I'm not to keen to do it right now either.

As for lasers and planes, that's a classic case of a short-term technologic advantage/innovation; after a few initial incidents, pretty much everyone will probably adapt one of the solutions you had proposed here.
Mrm... depending on when you get reliable military diode lasers (probably 2025 - 2035 OTL, may be somewhat different there) the technologies I described would already have matured or at least be field capable (since they're in their infancy right now). Theoretically only older planes would suffer before refits were possible (as planes are now designed to be highly modular with 30+ year lifespans), and that'd only be an issue if there actually happened to be a war going on at the time. But eh.
 
Yes I am working on stats, if by working on stats you mean...thinking about working on stats :p
 
Good enough, I suppose. What about the rules?
 
Decided with yours (what a surprise) but do you think economic centers are necessary or should they be left out?
 
Up to you. It also somewhat depends on which version of my rules you intend to use.
 
das got a free reservation because he did something for me, what have you done for me...PANDA MAN?!?! :mischief:

heres a sample stat, for the USA:

United States of America
Capital: Washington
Ruler: President Newt Gingrich
Government: Democratic Republic
Tech. Level: Middle Modern Age
Army (Training): 100 divisions (Very Good)
Navy (Training): 200 ships (Very Good)
Air Force (Training): 100 wings (Very Good)
Economy: Rich (+3)
Size (points required): Huge (5)
Leadership (Military/Civilian): Better/Tolerable
Infrastructure: Very Efficient
Education: Educated
Culture: Patriotic
Confidence: Respecting
Projects:
Nation Background: With the fall of Fascism in Europe, America finds itself in a position as the world's greatest power. This is a precarious one however, with growing dissent at home and conflict abound in the world. Old allies could become new enemies and the USA's place at the top could be short lived if these problems are allowed to get out of hand.

Ok, tell me all the problems you see, and don't hold back.
 
das got a free reservation because he did something for me, what have you done for me...PANDA MAN?!?!

How about he makes the stats for you? :p Still, IMHO he would do great as the expansionist Japan.

Tech. Level: Middle Modern Age

Depends on the definition of Modern Age's exact range, ofcourse, but I think its more like Late Modern Age.

The land military should probably be smaller (its a bit of an overkill at present; even the OTL modern (i.e. more-or-less wartime) American army is at ten, maximum eleven divisions, even though the Americans seem to have Imperial Russian-sized divisions as well); the naval numbers may be increased somewhat, but not necessarily.

Economy should probably be bigger than that, by a level or two.

Leadership is hard to judge; but I'd imagine that civilian leadership would be better than the military one, as the latter doesn't appear to have seen combat for quite a while, much longer than in OTL (last real military operation was in the 1960s, against the Bahamas; there might have also been some Latin American "operations", but I doubt that these would qualify as serious fighting experience most of the times).

Education - also may be grown.

With the fall of Fascism in Europe, America finds itself in a position as the world's greatest power. This is a precarious one however, with growing dissent at home and conflict abound in the world. Old allies could become new enemies and the USA's place at the top could be short lived if these problems are allowed to get out of hand.

Technically it may be true, but doesn't quite conform with the timeline, which clearly implies that the USA isn't quite as interventionist or hegemonic as in OTL; it definitely has that potential, but was apparently too busy with internal issues in the 1990s. Also, the dissent seems to be actually receding, at least temporarily, after the Perot fiasco. It would be better to emphasise the fact that in the aftermath of the Cold War and serious political complications, America is now at the crossroads and must plot a new course for its foreign policy. Or something like that.
 
Depends on the definition of Modern Age's exact range, ofcourse, but I think its more like Late Modern Age.

The land military should probably be smaller (its a bit of an overkill at present; even the OTL modern (i.e. more-or-less wartime) American army is at ten, maximum eleven divisions, even though the Americans seem to have Imperial Russian-sized divisions as well); the naval numbers may be increased somewhat, but not necessarily.

Economy should probably be bigger than that, by a level or two.

Leadership is hard to judge; but I'd imagine that civilian leadership would be better than the military one, as the latter doesn't appear to have seen combat for quite a while, much longer than in OTL (last real military operation was in the 1960s, against the Bahamas; there might have also been some Latin American "operations", but I doubt that these would qualify as serious fighting experience most of the times).

Education - also may be grown.

Technically it may be true, but doesn't quite conform with the timeline, which clearly implies that the USA isn't quite as interventionist or hegemonic as in OTL; it definitely has that potential, but was apparently too busy with internal issues in the 1990s. Also, the dissent seems to be actually receding, at least temporarily, after the Perot fiasco. It would be better to emphasise the fact that in the aftermath of the Cold War and serious political complications, America is now at the crossroads and must plot a new course for its foreign policy. Or something like that.

I think I gave the Middle Modern Age a range of 1970-2010, and the current year is 2000 so its near the end of the Middle Age.

I used the 10,000 unit, and counted reserves. Basically, I counted EVERYONE in the US army :p Would a number around 70 make more sense?

Your probably right about economy, but then again...I dunno if anyone is really rolling in money right now in this world.

The civilian leadership is the one being questioned at the end of the timeline right? It says something about Germany, Britain, and the USA having divided governments and the best way I can think of to illustrate that is decreased civilian leadership.

Education...well, maybe. I don't really consider the American education system the best in the world right now, and I don't think it's much different in this timeline. Then again, I guess the only competition for it would be the Japanese considering the fall of Fascism.

Will do, I might copy and paste that. :scan:
 
Education...well, maybe. I don't really consider the American education system the best in the world right now, and I don't think it's much different in this timeline. Then again, I guess the only competition for it would be the Japanese considering the fall of Fascism.

If its Education in terms of higher education and research power then America is indeed top, basic and middle education is rather more lackluster. It all depends in what you want the stat to show.
 
I used the 10,000 unit, and counted reserves. Basically, I counted EVERYONE in the US army Would a number around 70 make more sense?

Probably.

Your probably right about economy, but then again...I dunno if anyone is really rolling in money right now in this world.

If anyone is then it would be America, though it too would probably be having trouble from the general economic woes... Well, remembering my own rules, I suppose the present level is pretty fine.

The civilian leadership is the one being questioned at the end of the timeline right? It says something about Germany, Britain, and the USA having divided governments and the best way I can think of to illustrate that is decreased civilian leadership.

Government and civil service aren't necessarily the same thing, though the former influences latter. Still, I suppose your argument works.

Education...well, maybe. I don't really consider the American education system the best in the world right now, and I don't think it's much different in this timeline. Then again, I guess the only competition for it would be the Japanese considering the fall of Fascism.

IMHO the Germans will probably be quite good as well, for now anyway (leftovers of the traditional academic system and of Schirach's apparent egalitarian policies); fascist education systems will probably erode like the Soviet one did. Speaking of which, it will probably also be pretty high, even though the European parts of Russia are probably still devastated in that regard as well as socially and economically.

All that said, I also agree with Dis about education in general and the American specifics.
 
So? Thier expansionist, powerful, and hip!
 
Are they powerful? It seems the USA invaded them and occupied them, so I am assuming that they underwent the "Japanese economic miracle" ? That, however, does not explain their military conquests in China and Manchuria and the large army needed for that. Nor does it explain why Japan was recieving German support in the 70's.
 
Regarding America's military strength: What!? A division is genereally assumed to be c.10,000, and America has somewhere over a million men in peacetime.
 
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