Alternate History Thread V

But isn't holding Spain the trick, rather than capturing it? Since the Lusitanian War the country has been fertile ground for insurgencies, and that's more of an issue than taking control of it...and perhaps the Pyrenees make resupply of an occupying force difficult.
 
Can't hold it until you capture it. Support of a domestic regime didn't help the French a whole lot during the Navarrette episode.
 
for most of the 16th century, was not the habsburg empire split in two?
EDIT: After the reign of charles V.

Yes... and they still got financing from Italian bankers, and a lot of income from the Netherlands, and mercenaries from Germany.
 
Yes... and they still got financing from Italian bankers, and a lot of income from the Netherlands, and mercenaries from Germany.

Oh, ok.

Dachs, I remember someone once saying, I think it was you, that it is outrageously easy for France to invade Italy and similarly hard for it too invade Spain. I may be misquoting if so, do you think there is any credence to the statement?
 
Oh, ok.

Dachs, I remember someone once saying, I think it was you, that it is outrageously easy for France to invade Italy and similarly hard for it too invade Spain. I may be misquoting if so, do you think there is any credence to the statement?
You are misquoting me. I was saying that it's outrageously easy for France to invade Italy, but it's rather difficult for Austria to invade France via Italy.
 

Faded Glory

Prelude
Chapter 1
Chapter 2


Chapter 3: Into the Mouth of Hell

It was a few days after Christmas in 1859. The streets were mostly deserted, as people chose to spend their time in the holiday season with family rather than braving the crisp Parisian dusk. In a café near the Rue Le Peletier, a patron sat sipping his evening coffee, admiring the setting sun. Despite the clear sky, the rumbles of thunder could be heard. A few blocks away, screams rose to the heavens with smoke, showing that it was not thunder which disturbed Paris that calm winter day. Through the smoke could be seen scurrying men in their army regalia, panicked horses who fought their riders barely less panicked orders, and above all, a burning carriage with the imperial seal.

Despite the best efforts of the army, soon the news leaked out: Emperor Napoleon III of France, along with his wife Empress Eugenie had been assassinated as several thrown bombs had detonated in their carriage. Later, it would be revealed that the mastermind behind the assassination was Felice Orsini. Orsini was an Italian who had been heavily involved in revolutionary plots, having been jailed twice, once by the Pope and once by the Austrians. After escaping from an Austrian jail, he went to Great Britain. There, he became convinced that Napoleon III was the chief obstacle to Italian independence and the principal cause of the anti-liberal reaction throughout Europe. With a successful assassination, Orsini believed that France would rise in revolt, which would allow the Italians to exploit the situation to also revolt.

The situation went somewhat according to Orsini’s plan, though he himself did not live to see it as he was captured and executed by firing squad days after the assassination. Napoleon’s assassination caused severe unrest in Paris. Because of the bomb’s English origin, severe anti-English protests spread throughout the capital. Radical republicans took this opportunity to spread unrest, raising the specter of the Canut revolts as well as the more recent June Days Uprising. The unstable French government was paralyzed. The official head, Emperor Napoleon Eugene Louis was only two years old, with nothing to contribute to the governance of a state but a famous name.

In this political scene, France needed a strong figure who could bring order out of the rapidly deteriorating circumstances. Unfortunately for France, such a strong leader was not immediately available. Politically, France was divided into several factions. The Legitimists were drawn from the ancient regime aristocracy, championed the powers of the monarchy, and supported Henri, comte de Chambord as the rightful King of France. The Orleanists also supported the restoration of the monarchy, though unlike the Legitimists, they supported a constitutional monarchy under the liberal Louis-Philippe Albert of Orleans. The Bonapartists supported the continuation of the French Empire under Napoleon Eugene Louis. Just as the supporters of the monarchy were divided, the supporters of a purely republican form of government were divided into many parties who roughly corresponded to moderate republicans and radical, or socialist, republicans.

With such an array of competing ideologies, it was almost impossible for a peaceful governmental transition to occur in the wake of Napoleon III’s assassination. This was only compounded by the interference of various powers. Great Britain supported the Orleanists; Russia, Germany, the Papal States, and Austria supported the Legitimists in varying degrees; those who wished to see a unified Italy supported moderate republicans, while various European socialist and anarchist groups supported the radical republicans.

In this climate of political unease, the Legitimists and Orleanists began plans to enact a coup to restore the monarchy. The Legitimist candidate, de Chambord, was both old and unmarried. The Orleanists thus proved willing to support de Chambord in exchange for their own candidate being named the formal heir, believing that Chambord would not live long. De Chambord, however, was an extreme reactionary. Before he would accept the throne of France, he had a list of demands, including France abandoning the revolutionary tricolor flag. When rumors of this reached the streets of Paris, the city erupted into revolutionary fervor. Hearing this, de Chambord decided not to leave his exile in Austria for France. Instead, he preferred to allow his advocates in France to act on his behalf.

Thus, France was torn among competing governments. The city of Paris, full of radicals, established a Parisian commune which claimed control over the rest of the country. The French Marshall Armand-Jacques Leroy de Saint-Arnaud, who had proved instrumental in Napoleon III’s coup which made him emperor, stayed loyal to his son, maintaining the infant son as the Emperor. A divided Parliament, meanwhile, seemed paralyzed by competing factions, limiting their short term effectiveness to deal with the brewing crisis.

1860 dawned. Only time would tell whether it would bring forth the revolutionary utopia Felice Orsini had hoped for…or merely more death.


Spoiler Beta Map :

fadedglorygamma.png
 
Sweet, Strat. I think that Syria could probably stand to be reworked - Alexandretta should definitely be in the French possessions, and probably Cilicia too. This might help, though you should probably cut off a large chunk of the Assyrian stuff. And Luxembourg still belongs to the Netherlands. :)
 
You are misquoting me. I was saying that it's outrageously easy for France to invade Italy, but it's rather difficult for Austria to invade France via Italy.

I didn't mean to misquote you Dachs, that's why I asked. Thanks for the clarification.
 
The beginning of an AH I am working on. This is my first one where I am being very detailed in the events preceding from the PoD.

Spoiler :
1044- Magnus I of Denmark and Norway falls ill and dies from injury in battle with the Wends. He leaves his popular advisor Einar Tambarskjelve as temporary regent. Einar continues to rule Norway but appoints Sweyn II Estridsson as King of Denmark. Before Sweyn can take throne however, the country falls into civil war with several factions vying for the Danish throne.

1045- Harald III Hardrada returns from Byzantium to legitimately claim the throne of Norway. Einar reluctantly surrenders power to Harald and becomes an advisor to him.

1050- Civil war continues in Denmark with Sweyn and his supporters slowing gaining strength. Despite this, Sweyn’s marriage to his former stepmother, Gunhild Sveinsdotter, is denounced by the Pope. Sweyn refuses to annul the marriage, seeing it as increasing his royal legitimacy in Denmark. Harald, with the support of the Papacy, the peasants and Einar embarks on a campaign to restore order to Denmark which he sees as rightfully part of his kingdom.

1058- Harald conquers Denmark, executes Sweyn along with several other pretenders and crowns himself King. The Danes, being without any other leader to turn too and exhausted from years of civil unrest accept Harald as king.

May-August 1066- The death of Edward the Confessor of England and support from Tostig Godwinson, the Earl of Northumbria, prompts Harald to invade with a force of 20,000 men and 400 longships. Harald defeats the Anglo-Saxons at the Battle of Fulford. Harold Godwinson dies in battle.

September-December 1066- Harald receives word that Duke William the Bastard of Normandy is also planning an invasion of England, causing him to send for an additional 5,000 troops from Denmark. Despite the fact the troops are actually nonexistent; Harald makes sure his message to Denmark is passed on to William, forcing the Normans to call of their invasion. Harald is crowned King of England, adding it to his titles of King of Norway and King of Denmark.

1067-1079- Harald seeking to centralize his power begins to target the local aristocrats causing large uprisings throughout England and war with Scotland. Harald spends the next 13 years stabilizing his kingdom.

1072-William invades and conquers Brittany. Feeling threatened by the growing power of Normandy, the young and inexperienced King of France, Philip I goes to war and is quickly defeated. William dethrones Philip and declares himself King of France.
 
Plausible?:

Edict of Fontainebleau isn't passed. Treaty of Ryswick results in no concessions from France; in fact, they get Luxembourg out of it. Possessing Luxembourg as well as Strasbourg, and being in an overall better position due to no Edict of Fontainebleau, France does considerably better in the War of the Spanish succession. In fact, they convincingly win the war, annexing Spain and all their possessions, along with Savoy and some German cities.

France then begins building up its navy in response to the size of Britain's navy. War of the Polish Succession happens in the meantime, and France gains more territory from the HRE. When the War of the Austrian Succession comes however, Britain does not enjoy the naval superiority it did in OTL. France, possessing much vaster resources than in OTL, can also afford to dedicate less soldiers to the war in Europe; they land a much larger army under Bourdonnais in India, which enjoys considerable success. However, due to unrest in Spain, the French do not enjoy the same measure of success in Europe; the War of the Austrian Succession ends with Prussia's OTL annexing of Silesia, but also with French gains in India.

The Diplomatic Revolution sees France telling Austria that they are willing to commit to a Franco-Austrian alliance, but when the Austrians break off their alliance with Britain, France does not honor their word. The rest of the shifts in alliances remain the same though.

By the time the Seven Years' War comes around, France has the biggest navy of the world. When war breaks out, Austria is unwilling to work with either France or Prussia. However, Prussia decides to invade Austria preemptively.
During the war, France does not suffer from the same shortcomings as in OTL: they fully have the ability to aid their colonies in the war. They are victorious in North America and enjoy an almost-crushing victory in India. The war going badly for Britain, they decide to sign a peace after only a few years into the war. British Canada is transferred to France, as is Nova Scotia, but otherwise North American borders remain almost the same. In India however, the British make major concessions and lose nearly all influence. Portugal is included in this peace treaty and only concedes part of their African and Eastern colonies.

The British out of the war by 1760, Prussia is left without an ally. Having severe trouble with the Russians, they redirect troops from the Austrian front and allow Austria to advance virtually unopposed. France gives Austria an ultimatum to cede all captured Prussian lands to France. Austria refuses, and France declares war. Not having any other fronts to focus on, France's army overwhelms Austria. By 1761, Austria's army has all but collapsed, and the Russians are steadily advancing towards Berlin. Prussia is offered a peace offer, in which they are to make large territorial concessions (comprising of all lands formerly part of Poland and more) to Russia. Frederick II commits suicide, and a committee of regents accepts the peace treaty. Shortly after, Tsaritsa Elizabeth dies, and Peter III succeeds her; relations between Russia and France subsequently cool.

Regardless, France has wholly defeated the HRE. They boldly annex all HRE lands west of the Rhine, and form a satellite state comprising Baden and Wurttemberg.
 
That's an awful lot of butterfly ignoring. I further don't really see a direct relation between the first two sentences, and a great willingness on the part of the component states of Europe to simply let France pull all this janx without, you know, going all balance-of-power on it. Just seems like a Civ game or a Total War game with the player as France, not really any history. :dunno:
 
That's an awful lot of butterfly ignoring. I further don't really see a direct relation between the first two sentences, and a great willingness on the part of the component states of Europe to simply let France pull all this janx without, you know, going all balance-of-power on it. Just seems like a Civ game or a Total War game with the player as France, not really any history. :dunno:

Well the Edict of Fontainebleau weakened France a bit, and said "a bit" might've made the difference between the OTL War of the Grand Alliance and one that would be more successful for France... anyways, the basic POD I was aiming at would be France winning the War of the Spanish Succession (having them annex Savoy as well is a bit much actually).
What "balance of power" :p? The concept of balance of power didn't become significant until after the Treaty of Utrecht, which ended the War of the Spanish Succession.

I might've gotten carried away with France's success after their winning the War of the Spanish Succession, but still; if they did win that war and didn't pass the Edict of Fontainebleau, they would be quite strong. France had already taken on virtually all of western Europe in wars like the War of the Grand Alliance, and not done too shabbily. The annexation of southern Italy and Luxembourg would've made it even more powerful.
I see no reason why Prussia would suddenly decide to not form an anti-Austrian alliance with France if France did win the War of the Spanish Succession... and this logically leads to a more successful War of the Austrian Succession.
During the OTL War of the Austrian Succession, France and Britain all but stalemated in India. Therefore, a stronger France would come out of the war with some gains.
Writing the next section, I admit I got carried away a bit... but in fact, seeing as how the French had ~120 ships-of-the-line compared to the Grand Alliance's ~180 ships-of-the-line in 1688, I don't find it that unlikely that a combined Bourbon fleet could at least match the British fleet by the 1750s.
 
Balance of power is something pretty eternal. Why else do you think the Grand Alliance was formed in the first place, for instance?

France took on all those powers during the wars of Louis XIV, yes, but doing that almost totally exhausted the French monarchy, depleted her manpower, and ruined her finances. After enduring even greater exertions and somehow grabbing a Spain that apparently doesn't revolt (?) along with extra stuff along the Rhine (which wasn't Louis' goal in the OTL War of Spanish Succession anyway) and in Italy (which definitely wasn't Louis' goal in the OTL War of Spanish Succession) seemingly without much blowback at all just seems kinda...maybe even ridiculously implausible.

There are a coupla more things I'm really iffy about, like Prussia's apparent abandonment of the rapprochement with Austria that it had before the 1730s in the face of a greater French threat to both Imperial liberties and Prussia's own western possessions, and the French succeeding on both sea and land, and on all continents, merely because they have conquered more territory from which to draw on, without regard as to how that territory might not be worth the cost in merely holding it against rebellion, much less in providing the extra oomph for France to beat down yet another apparently incompetent European coalition.
 
Ok, I stand totally corrected. But is there any way France could've become /the/ world power during that era?
 
What if John III Sobieski stubbornly stuck to his (somewhat horrible) plan of forming an anti-Austrian alliance with France and the Ottomans, and didn't send his relief army to the Battle of Vienna? That could certainly give France a boost, and butterflies could be used to explain why Louis doesn't pass the Edict of Fontainebleau and why he chooses to not sign that 20-year truce with the HRE.
 
I'm not going to comment on that idea because it's suspiciously close to something I've had on tap for my next timeline idea. :p
 
I think if you avoid a strong Hapsburg monarchy, you'd have France being the premier power. Doesn't really matter how it happens (unless you have a Hapsburg equivalent arising).
 
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