3. RUSSIA AS WE KNOW IT ‘WON’T EXIST’
The next decade will see Russia “seeking to secure itself” before economic decline hits, Stratfor warn as it continues to act aggressively in the region.
Seeing itself under the gun, it will appear even more aggressive and territorial as it continues to exert its power internally and externally, but it will come at a cost.
“Russia will also seek to reintegrate the former Soviet republics into some coherent entity in order to delay its demographic problems, expand its market and above all reabsorb some territorial buffers,” the forecast predicts.
Such action will make its neighbours anxious both in terms of national security and rapidly shifting economic policies.
Rising military cost, declining oil prices and internal issues will all weaken Russia further with its inability to control the federation creating a vacuum.
While Russia won’t split up as such, Moscow’s influence will weaken significantly, which in turn will create a raft of semi autonomous regions.
“We expect Moscow’s authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia,” the report warns.
“It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form.”
Countries including Poland, Hungary and Romania will also look to recover territory gained by Russia throughout various times in history.
7. GERMANY WILL LOSE POWER
While the European powerhouse has emerged fairly strong from the financial crisis, it remains very vulnerable with exports making up half of its GDP, 50 per cent of which flows to other EU nations.
However, the world’s fourth largest economic power is hostage to the economic wellbeing and competitive environment in which it operates, Stratfor said.
Protectionist policies will affect its exports leading to an extended economic decline which will reduce Germany’s influence within the next decade.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...t/news-story/7394f3e24dca89039de5ebfe24503c6c