Ask a Russian

[Takhisis]

Yes, but the difference is that more or less the whole Western world saw it as a national disgrace. The only way to lose that war was by having extremely incompetent officers in command.

 

[red_elk]

The only way to lose that war was by having extremely incompetent officers in command.

Well, it's not like competent officers in Russian army disappeared in 1990, after Afghanistan War, and then reappeared in 1999, in 2-nd Chechen War. The main reason wasn't that Russia had not enough military power or competent officers to crush separatists and insurgents. But rather that there were influential people in Russia who had profit from that war and who didn't want insurgency to be defeated. Once those people lost their influence and moved to London, it took only a few years to destroy organized resistance there.

 

[REDY]

Any evidence or is it just wishful thinking? Because there are tons of reading about fails of Russian army in Chechen wars, from leadership to tanks.

 

[red_elk]

Any evidence or is it just wishful thinking?

There's nothing wishful in having your country leadership corrupt beyond all repair. For evidences google Berezovsky and his involvement in Chechen War and organized crime in Russia.

Because there are tons of reading about fails of Russian army in Chechen wars, from leadership to tanks.

In both Chechen Wars. Russian military wasn't in any better shape in 1999, comparing to 1995. The difference between the first and the second wars was the presence of political will to win it. Whatever dismal state Russian military was in, suggesting it was unable to defeat several thousands of separatists on its own territory is naive. Separatists whose officers had the same education and training as Russian officers, but didn't have air support nor heavy weaponry.

 

[red_elk]

Latest 70 years of Russian history in 3 minutes:


Link to video.

 

[Takhisis]

I can do it in one line. Bald leader. Hairy leader. Bald leader. Hairy leader…

 

[red_elk]

Yes, that would be foreigner's perspective.
Video I posted shows it from insider's point of view.

 

[red_elk]

Russian economy seems to begin reaping the benefits of low oil prices and weak ruble.

Medical, chemical and food industry started to grow, while IT sector grew 28% last year.

Russia’s famously boom-and-bust economy is already turning heads. A contraction in the first quarter was smaller than all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey, meaning the nation’s longest recession in two decades may end as soon as next quarter. The 1.2 percent drop in gross domestic product from a year earlier was the smallest since the decline began at the start of 2015.
...
To measure the vital signs of the economy, look to industries including agriculture, whose share in GDP last year rose to 4.4 percent, the highest since 2003. The success of farmers -- boosted by a weaker ruble and tit-for-tat sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine -- was one reason last year’s economic contraction of 3.7 percent was less than half the decline during the last recession, in 2009.
The legacy of the crisis so far also includes such outperformers as the information technology industry, where output soared 28 percent last year, with pharmaceuticals adding 8.8 percent and chemicals climbing 4.4 percent. No breakdown by industry is yet available for this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...live-after-crash-as-post-oil-path-takes-shape

 

[Kozmos]

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/consumer-confidence

Consumer confidence is less cheery though.

 

[red_elk]

Right, recession isn't over yet.
Hopefully, oil prices will stay around 50 for a while - this would allow to continue restructuring of the economy without creating additional problems with budget.

 

[Takhisis]

Maybe you've finally hit a sweet spot. Articles such as this give a different insight.

 

[red_elk]

Why it's different? Both articles mention food import ban as additional stimulus for growth of Russian food industry. But it doesn't explain, for example, booming of IT sector. I guess that's what weak ruble accounts for.

 

[Takhisis]

I don't think it even mentions the Russian IT sector.

 

[red_elk]

The Bloomberg article, quoted above, does.

"The legacy of the crisis so far also includes such outperformers as the information technology industry, where output soared 28 percent last year, with pharmaceuticals adding 8.8 percent and chemicals climbing 4.4 percent. No breakdown by industry is yet available for this year."

 

[Oerdin]

My guess is the Russians are going to need long sustained investment to really get agricultural production up and improve efficiency. Not just more farmers with more equipment but vast new irrigation projects, better road and rail connections to efficiently transport ground, big investments into refrigeration and packing facilities, expanded ports, etc... It can take years to build up a beef cattle operation and they require a lot of capital upfront with five or more years of feed costs before you can sell the first beef cow. They are going to need a hell of a lot of greenhouses for vegetables and big new aquaculture facilities.

Do the politicians have the stomach for 10-20 years of sustained public support? My guess is not and once the sanctions end their support will also peter out.

 

[red_elk]

Well, the end of sanctions will also create additional stimuli for growth (foreign investments). It will kill some non-competitive players in internal market, but that's not a bad thing overall.

 

[Oerdin]

True. I wouldn't count on too much foreign investment though until Russia reforms its legal system so that the politicians can no longer control judicial outcomes. Still, with political will and a sustained investment the agricultural sector can be reformed and made both more productive and more efficient with or without sanctions. That is one bright spot at least.

If Russia really wants to advance economically then the cronyism needs to stop and the rules need to be the same for everyone. That would go a long way towards improving the economy.

 

[red_elk]

Yep, we definitely need improvement in this field, at least if we want to continue GDP growth at a rate >5% a year, as it was in 00-s. Reserves of restorative economy growth are exhausted by now. And we also need to develop decent mechanisms of power succession, to ensure stability of country's political-economical course.

 

[REDY]

The giant investments to infrastucture should be realy answer to economical problems. Hitler, FDR, Japan and others used it well for development. Russia now can use its own companies and investors from undemocratic Asia and ME without hesitation, because it has tarnished reputation in west anyway.

 

[Oerdin]

I do wonder if any large scale public works is even possible in Russia without the massive graft and corruption we saw at Sochi. The country desperately needs modern highways, or so I hear, yet the money doesn't go very far when half of it is stolen. Reduce corruption (somethong which will never happen under Putin as corruption is how he keeps his coalition together) and you see a whole lot more development and economic growth.