Ask an Economist #3

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Whomp said:
I think Keynes called it the "paradox of thrift" and everyone is hoarding cash in the "perceived" safest forms. Repatriate to dollars and yen.
Yep, basically people were freaking out over the financial crisis and even though the US was hurt, people figured the US was a safer and more stable bet than many of these riskier emerging economies. Pulling their money out of these economies and putting it into the US. Without all the "widening", "CDOs", "bps" and whatever other finance terms I have no clue what means, would you say my take on it is basically what you are saying?
 
Hey Jericho,

Why do you think until now the govt. didn't say anything about us being in a recession?

Also, why does it not seem like a recession? Things seem fine... Or do I just live a spoiled life? >.<

Ansar,

You can't date a recession concurrently when we get into it, because we have to collect data and analyze it. Thus, we may *suspect* we're in a recession, but until the data comes in, we can't know for sure. That's what the NBER does, dates recessions (among other things).

Early this year, I stated on these forums that we were *likely* in a recession in the US but we couldn't officially define it as such. As a professional economist, I'm not going to state something as fact until I have the data to back up the facts, but I can speak in terms of probabilities based on professional judgement.

There will always be a lag between the start of a recession and economists being able to officially note the start. We need data!

And as for the latter, you must not have noticed the slowdown.
 
Yep, basically people were freaking out over the financial crisis and even though the US was hurt, people figured the US was a safer and more stable bet than many of these riskier emerging economies. Pulling their money out of these economies and putting it into the US. Without all the "widening", "CDOs", "bps" and whatever other finance terms I have no clue what means, would you say my take on it is basically what you are saying?
I think you could say that was the case. There was demand for dollars from investors, governments and businesses. If you look at dollar cycles they tend to run for long stretches so don't be surprised if we see dollar/euro parity.
 
Can anyone explain microfinace to me? i saw a (very) short bit about it on TV and it sounds like a good plan to my untrained eye. Any help?
 
Short version is that you lend a pretty small amount of money to people in poor areas for the purpose of starting a tiny business. Results are generally good, and people go from poverty to self sufficiency, to in some cases a nice life.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Microfinance refers to the provision of financial services to poor or low-income clients, including consumers and the self-employed.[1] The term also refers to the practice of sustainably delivering those services. Microcredit (or loans to poor microenterprises) should not be confused with microfinance, which addresses a full range of banking needs for poor people.[2]

More broadly, it refers to a movement that envisions &#8220;a world in which as many poor and near-poor households as possible have permanent access to an appropriate range of high quality financial services, including not just credit but also savings, insurance, and fund transfers.&#8221;[3] Those who promote microfinance generally believe that such access will help poor people out of poverty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microfinance
 
I think this is appropriate to post here.

Please ignore the conspiracy-esque feel of the video and just listen to the facts and arguments.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GubKeiQ6b8A

Thoughts?

Edit: The video does NOT claim there is some conspiracy behind the crisis, only bad and ignorant decisions made. I only said that there was an "conspiracy-esque feel" to it because there is cheesy music playing in the background, and the video just gives off the same vibe as a lot of these youtube economic conspiracy videos I've seen. The reason for that is that this video is meant to appeal to the masses, like the conspiracy videos also are, so it uses the same youtube video "style".
 
I can't view youtube at work Homie. What's the general idea, that the Fed is evil? (Just guessing as youtube + conspiracy + economy normally equals Ron Paul Rant on Fed)
 
I can't view youtube at work Homie. What's the general idea, that the Fed is evil? (Just guessing as youtube + conspiracy + economy normally equals Ron Paul Rant on Fed)

Not exactly, although it does mention the Fed. It is a summation of the financial crisis, or rather, what led to it, from the perspective of "intervention is bad". They argue that intervention by government (who wanted to create more home ownership in the US) is what led to the crisis. They specifically mention certain bills and measures passed by Congress, and show how those create incentives for bankers to make bad, risky loans. You should see it though, I don't do it justice here.

P.S. It is only 7 minutes long.

Edit: The video does NOT claim there is some conspiracy behind the crisis, only bad and ignorant decisions made. I only said that there was an "conspiracy-esque feel" to it because there is cheesy music playing in the background, and the video just gives off the same vibe as a lot of these youtube economic conspiracy videos I've seen. The reason for that is that this video is meant to appeal to the masses, like the conspiracy videos also are, so it uses the same youtube video "style".
 
Not exactly, although it does mention the Fed. It is a summation of the financial crisis, or rather, what led to it, from the perspective of "intervention is bad". They argue that intervention by government (who wanted to create more home ownership in the US) is what led to the crisis. They specifically mention certain bills and measures passed by Congress, and show how those create incentives for bankers to make bad, risky loans. You should see it though, I don't do it justice here.

The problem is, they only describe those interventions by the government, and ignore the multitude of other compounding factors and direct causes. Then state that the whole crisis was caused by those few instances where the government created legislation encouraging homeownership.

Government legislation and entities such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae certainly contributed to the problem, but the problem was multicausal, and cannot simply be pinned on two instances of government legislation. There were much, much more significant causes than the few pointed at in the video.

The video should be placed in context -- a context that you should research yourself. If you want to learn about the causes of the financial crisis, it's probably best to learn from a source that isn't trying to push an agenda.
 
The problem is, they only describe those interventions by the government, and ignore the multitude of other compounding factors and direct causes. Then state that the whole crisis was caused by those few instances where the government created legislation encouraging homeownership.

Government legislation and entities such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae certainly contributed to the problem, but the problem was multicausal, and cannot simply be pinned on two instances of government legislation. There were much, much more significant causes than the few pointed at in the video.

The video should be placed in context -- a context that you should research yourself. If you want to learn about the causes of the financial crisis, it's probably best to learn from a source that isn't trying to push an agenda.
Everyone is trying to push an agenda Mise, that's only natural. You say the the problem was multicausal, but the video does mention several causes: The Fed's artificially low interest rate trying to dampen the effects of the dot-com bubble, the two pieces of legislation - one of which bound the hands of bankers in how they determined who they could lend to (read: Gov't says you have to lend to ghetto black people, even though you'll never see that money again), and the bailout mentality which gave Wall Street the idea that they could speculate and reap the profits - but if they lost, the public would bear the cost, which in turn led them to take more risks.
 
Not sure what you mean there Carmen... If you expect rates to go down then you expect money to be cheaper in the future and so you are more willing to borrow now, or invest now, since paying back will be easier.

Maybe I am missing your point but I don't see how lowering rates would case a scare for investors.

And btw, it is the Federal Reserve that determines interest rates, not the Treasury.
 
Why is monetary theory so boring that I'd almost rather bomb the final than spend the 45mins required to memorize the crap and ace the final?
 
Everyone is trying to push an agenda Mise, that's only natural. You say the the problem was multicausal, but the video does mention several causes: The Fed's artificially low interest rate trying to dampen the effects of the dot-com bubble, the two pieces of legislation - one of which bound the hands of bankers in how they determined who they could lend to (read: Gov't says you have to lend to ghetto black people, even though you'll never see that money again), and the bailout mentality which gave Wall Street the idea that they could speculate and reap the profits - but if they lost, the public would bear the cost, which in turn led them to take more risks.
Yes, it mentions 3 causes, two of which were fairly minor in terms of impact. The real killer* was the CDOs (and the credit rating they were given), because they were based off assumptions that turned out to be completely wrong. If the CDOs were priced properly, no-one would have bought them, and so banks couldn't have lent as much as they did, because they wouldn't have had any money to lend. In otherwords, whilst government legislation encouraged banks to lend subprime to a small extent, lending subprime on a much larger scale was made possible by the wholesale and mispricing of CDOs. Without this, it would have been impossible for banks to have lent to such a large extent, regardless of how much they were encouraged by the government.

And lets not forget that the banks lent far, FAR more subprime mortgages than the government asked them to, and that this was made possible by wholesale and mispricing of complex derivatives.

*-this isn't even the end of the story - there are still huge structural issues such as the conflict of interest of credit rating agencies, asymetric rewards for mortgage brokers, asymetric rewards for bankers and loan originators, and the structure of the CDOs themselves making it impossible to determine which are "good" and which are "bad" CDOs. Some might say that the buck passes back to the government and the SEC for not regulating out these structural asymetries. The makers of the video ignored all of these far more significant and fundamental causes of the crisis, and decided to focus on the relatively minor impact of government incentives. Shareholders and Executive management themselves placed far greater incentives on bankers to take risks and lend subprime, not to score brownie points with the government, or to adhere to decade old legislation, but to make bigger and bigger profits.
 
Is it possible that if Treasuries lower interest rates constantly, it might scare investors rather than boost confidence?

Well, once you hit 0%, you really can't go any lower.

Short answer: It is not possible for rates to be lowered at a constant rate.
 
Why is monetary theory so boring that I'd almost rather bomb the final than spend the 45mins required to memorize the crap and ace the final?

Because you're taking an undergraduate economics course where they're all boring because the interesting stuff doesn't come until you start relaxing assumptions and creating havok?

Just ace the final

@Mise
Do not forget the assymetric informational advantage subprime brokers had over their clients. Further, remember that most of these brokers were "fund and flip" outfits.
 
I think this is appropriate to post here.

Please ignore the conspiracy-esque feel of the video and just listen to the facts and arguments.
.

Here's a good link that refutes some of the claims made in that video:

http://howdidthishappen.org/myths

Also, the idea that the financial system is well (or overtly) regulated is completely false. There is now, a system of unregulated shadow banks. I also noticed that the (oh-so-honey-voiced) narrator dude in that video spouted some Austrian crankonomics. Indeed, the whole theory that (minority aiding) CRA caused the crisis originates from the absurd Austrian fringe and from a confederate apologist. Since then, these convenient conspiracy theories have spread to the right-wing mainstream.

Myth #1: De-regulation had nothing to do with this crisis

The Facts
Conservative de-regulation left Wall Street with no cop on the beat. Bush&#8217;s conservative appointees rolled back regulation and oversight of banks, insurers, lenders, and credit raters. - The explosion in subprime loans after 2000 were made by unregulated mortgage companies, and the vast majority of them were issued to higher income borrowers, not low- to moderate-income borrowers. - The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 (GLBA) dismantled Depression-era law that had prohibited bank holding companies from owning other financial companies such as investment, commercial banking, and insurance companies. GLBA ignited a wave of mergers and hampered government regulators charged with preventing conflicts of interest and risky financial behavior.

Myth #2: Private lenders were pressured into giving out risky loans

The Facts
Private lenders&#8212;not the government-backed Fannie and Freddie&#8212;issued the vast majority of subprime loans, and to low- and moderate-income borrowers in particular. Fannie and Freddie did not guarantee and securitize large quantities of subprime loans. - In fact, Fannie Mae actually lost market share because it chose not to &#8220;participate in large amounts of these non-traditional mortgages in 2004 and 2005&#8221; because it &#8220;determined that the pricing offered for these mortgages often was insufficient compensation for the additional credit risk associated with these mortgages.&#8221; As economist Dean Baker stated, &#8220;Fannie and Freddie got into subprime junk and helped fuel the housing bubble, but they were trailing the irrational exuberance of the private sector&#8230;.In short, while Fannie and Freddie were completely irresponsible in their lending practices, the claim that they were responsible for the financial disaster is absurd on its face&#8212;kind of like the claim that the earth is flat.&#8221; - In testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Lehman Brothers CEO Richard Fuld acknowledged that Fannie and Freddie&#8217;s role in Lehman&#8217;s demise was &#8220;de minimis,&#8221; or so small that it does not matter.

Myth #3: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Caused the Crisis

The Facts
While some are attempting to scapegoat Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, economist Dean Baker recently stated that while Fannie and Freddie &#8220;got into subprime junk and helped fuel the housing bubble,&#8221; they were &#8220;trailing the irrational exuberance of the private sector&#8221; and actually lost market share to private subprime lenders in the years 2002-2007, when &#8220;the volume of private issue mortgage backed securities exploded.&#8221; - In a 2006 Securities and Exchange Commission filing (available here) covering its activities in 2004, Fannie Mae stated: &#8220;We did not participate in large amounts of these non-traditional mortgages in 2004 and 2005.&#8221; In the report, Fannie Mae also noted the growth of subprime lending and reported, &#8220;These trends and our decision not to participate in large amounts of these non-traditional mortgages contributed to a significant loss in our share of new single-family mortgage-related securities issuances to private-label issuers during this period.&#8221; - Additionally, Lehman Brothers CEO Richard Fuld testified before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on October 6, 2008, that Fannie and Freddie&#8217;s failure played a minimal role in Lehman&#8217;s demise.

Myth #4: The 1977 Community Reinvestment Act is to blame for the current financial crisis

The Facts
Several media figures have attempted to connect the financial crisis to the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), originally passed in 1977 and since amended. However, according to housing experts, a large number of subprime loans were not made under the CRA, which applies only to depository institutions. Additionally, a study released earlier this year by a law firm specializing in CRA compliance estimated that in the 15 most populous metropolitan areas, 84.3 percent of subprime loans in 2006 were made by financial institutions not governed by the CRA.

However, the claim that the CRA is responsible for the current crisis ignores several crucial facts: - The CRA does not cover independent mortgage companies, which issued the vast majority of the loans underlying the crisis. The act applies only to depository banks and thrifts (savings and loan associations) that are federally insured. According to University of Michigan law professor Michael Barr in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, just 20 percent of the subprime mortgages since the late 1990s were issued by CRA-covered lenders. Thus, 80 percent subprime loans were made by lenders not regulated by the CRA. - The CRA actually created more responsible lending. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet L. Yellen rejected the &#8220;tendency to conflate the current problems in the subprime market with CRA-motivated lending,&#8221; and noted &#8220;that the CRA has increased the volume of responsible lending to low- and moderate-income households.&#8221; - The act was passed in 1977, well before the subprime loan bonanza occurred. In fact, the Bush administration&#8217;s weakening of the CRA coincided with the subprime boom. - Banks did not engage in an orgy of reckless subprime lending to meet CRA obligations; they did so for they same reason they always do: to make money. Only this time, deregulation allowed them to get paid not just for making the loans, but for turning them into securities and trading them (see below).

Myth #5: Progressives have opposed strengthening oversight over Fannie and Freddie

The Facts
Several media figures have accused progressives in Congress of opposing stronger oversight of two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In fact, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), chairman of the Financial Services Committee, and his predecessor, Rep. Michael Oxley (R-OH) made efforts to enhance regulatory oversight on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, including the Federal Housing Finance Reform Act of 2005 and sponsoring the Federal Housing Finance Reform Act of 2007. Both of these bills called for a new agency to oversee and regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Myth #6: Congress funded ACORN in the bailout package

The Facts
Numerous media figures reported that Congress tried to steer money to ACORN in the recent housing bailout bill. In fact, neither the draft proposal nor the final version of the bill contained any language mentioning ACORN. Those making the false claim were misrepresenting a provision&#8212;since removed&#8212;that would have directed 20 percent of any profits realized on troubled assets purchased under the plan into two previously established funds: the Housing Trust Fund and the Capital Magnet Fund, which, under the law authorizing them, distribute funds through state block grants and through competitive application processes, respectively.
 
Where should I put my savings???

My variable rate savings account is at 4.7% at the moment, but the BoE dropped rates on Thursday, so I don't expect it to stay at 4.7% for long. The best fixed rate (1 year) is at 5.5% or so, but I probably won't be able to open the account before the rate drops again. These are all pretty crappy rates, given that I was getting 6.5% just 2 months ago.

Anyway, should I put it into stocks? How much should I put in? 33% of my savings? 50%? 67%? Should I put it all in in one go, or should I put in a bit at a time? Or should I put half in at once and the other half a little bit over time?

OR!!!!

Should I save for a deposit on a house, with my target to buy within 15 months? The amount that I've saved by that time will determine how much I can spend on a house (because banks will only lend to people who have 25% deposits - any lower and the rates shoot up to something rather less affordable), so it's important that my savings don't fall. As such, I reckon the stock market might not be such a good idea.

Which makes more financial sense? Buying a house, or investing in stocks?
 
Definitely go with the house. Stocks are cheap now, but so are houses, after the housing bubble. If you know you are gonna be living there for a long time, 10 years or more, buying now would be a great idea.
 
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