Zack
99% hot gas
Why vote for glossy and not me? Think you'll get better support this way?
Aspiring Rapper's MAFIA- Game Thread
- Thread starter Askthepizzaguy
- Start date
Well, so much for my read on Kennigit. Just as wrong as every other read I've had this game...
The lylo message in the update makes me think there's 4 mafia, not 5- If it was 5 it would be impossible to win if we mislynch, if it's 4 it's only very, very difficult.
The lylo message in the update makes me think there's 4 mafia, not 5- If it was 5 it would be impossible to win if we mislynch, if it's 4 it's only very, very difficult.
Zack
99% hot gas
Okay, let's try something different. I've done some minor statistical analysis on the posting rates of the 3 categories of players: alive, killed, lynched.
To summarize:
Points of interest:
- No player averaging more than 15 posts/day has been nightkilled.
- Medium posters have been consistently nightkilled and mostly unharmed by the lynch. The only medium posters still alive are right on the edge of being in the low posters tier.
- Low posters have been mostly unharmed by lynch, and relatively unharmed by nightkill.
- High posters have been consistently lynched and completely unharmed by nightkill.
What does this mean?
Note: As choxorn pointed out, I'm operating on the assumption of 4 mafia.
- The mafia have consistently killed off medium posters, while leaving high and low posters relatively untouched.
- The town has consistently lynched high posters. Additionally, every high poster still alive has been a legitimate lynch candidate at some point.
So... what does it mean?
- High posters have been left untouched by the mafia either because the mafia think they're lynchbait and/or one or more mafia are high posters, and don't want to single themselves out by being the only high poster left.
- The mafia have mostly left lurkers alone, with three exceptions: BSmith (a power role), Autolycus and GoldenKnight (the most extreme lurkers, averaging only a single post a day).
- That's 2-4 good candidates for scum. Let's sort through the rest.
Who are the scum, Zack?
1 from {glossysushi, Zack}
1 from {KingMorgan vol. 2, edse}
1 from {Lohrenswald, Legato Endless, Murska, landlubber}
1 other that could be anywhere.
I suggest we lynch someone from one of {glossysushi, Zack, KingMorgan, edse} today. I think that gives us a pretty good chance of finding scum. A few people have already voted for glossy, so I will vote: edse as an alternate wagon.
Spoiler :
Spoiler :
To summarize:
Spoiler :
Spoiler :
Points of interest:
- No player averaging more than 15 posts/day has been nightkilled.
- Medium posters have been consistently nightkilled and mostly unharmed by the lynch. The only medium posters still alive are right on the edge of being in the low posters tier.
- Low posters have been mostly unharmed by lynch, and relatively unharmed by nightkill.
- High posters have been consistently lynched and completely unharmed by nightkill.
What does this mean?
Note: As choxorn pointed out, I'm operating on the assumption of 4 mafia.
- The mafia have consistently killed off medium posters, while leaving high and low posters relatively untouched.
- The town has consistently lynched high posters. Additionally, every high poster still alive has been a legitimate lynch candidate at some point.
So... what does it mean?
- High posters have been left untouched by the mafia either because the mafia think they're lynchbait and/or one or more mafia are high posters, and don't want to single themselves out by being the only high poster left.
~ Cuthillius has been lynchbait pretty much all game, there's no reason scum would kill him. Glossysushi and Zack are only recently lynchbait; prior to the last few rounds, they were almost universally townread AND high posters, making their continued survival odd (as noted by many). We know Al Sipsclar protected Zack on a night where there was a missing nightkill, though there appear to be plenty of alternative explanations for the lack of kill there that don't involve Zack being targeted. There's a high probability at least one of glossysushi and Zack are scum. Admittedly, both being town wouldn't be unprecedented (see NOTW: The Underground).
- The mafia have mostly left lurkers alone, with three exceptions: BSmith (a power role), Autolycus and GoldenKnight (the most extreme lurkers, averaging only a single post a day).
~ Extreme lurkers have been killed off. This makes Backwards Logic stick out as the only player averaging ~1 post a day that hasn't been NKed, which makes me inclined to think he's not mafia, along with other reasons I've talked about before. There's a mini-tier above BL and below BSmith with Xym/KingMorgan2 and edse, who have skated along with minimal content and minimal rocking of the boat. Try to think of anything notable they've posted... hard, right? There's a high probability at least one of KingMorgan vol. 2 and edse is scum.
- That's 2-4 good candidates for scum. Let's sort through the rest.
Possible lynchbait - Cuthillius, choxorn. People have been suspicious of these two all game long, and they've been candidates for the lynch a few times. This could certainly be indicative of legitimate scumminess, or they could be townies the mafia considered low-priority kill targets.
Mushy - Lohrenswald, Legato Endless, Murska, landlubber. Not really high posters, not really medium posters, not really low posters. Not high-profile, not lynchbait, read mostly neutral. There's probably a scum in this group.
Who are the scum, Zack?
1 from {glossysushi, Zack}
1 from {KingMorgan vol. 2, edse}
1 from {Lohrenswald, Legato Endless, Murska, landlubber}
1 other that could be anywhere.
I suggest we lynch someone from one of {glossysushi, Zack, KingMorgan, edse} today. I think that gives us a pretty good chance of finding scum. A few people have already voted for glossy, so I will vote: edse as an alternate wagon.
Zack
99% hot gas
Just so Pizza sees it easily.
Vote: edse
Vote: edse
Zack
99% hot gas
And yeah, I know I implicate myself there, but I'm trying to be as impartial as possible, and it would be dishonest not to include Zack as a prime candidate under this type of analysis.
I know I'm town, so my list to choose from is really {glossy, KM, edse}, but I recognize that no one else has seen my Role PM and has no reason to clear me in that manner. That said, considering this is lylo-ish, I strongly recommend you don't lynch me.
I know I'm town, so my list to choose from is really {glossy, KM, edse}, but I recognize that no one else has seen my Role PM and has no reason to clear me in that manner. That said, considering this is lylo-ish, I strongly recommend you don't lynch me.
Legato Endless
Prince
Vote:Glossy
I'm still not quite seeing Cuth as scummy, but that's explained if this is a four man team. If not, maybe I'm totally wrong. Grah.
Agreed.
Well at least that removes my niggling doubt. Zack sounds pretty invested in keeping Glossy safe.
Zack
99% hot gas
Is this a joke?
Zack
99% hot gas
It's a legitimate question. Yesterday you were both screaming for my lynch, what changed your tune? Seems like a calculated move to for more support, which I suppose is not scummy in itself.
Legato Endless
Prince
I've been trying for two days and it keeps not happening. In light of Cass' flip, this clarifies a lot of what I was thinking but not entirely sure of. With things down to the wire, I'm willing to go with the momentum and get a lynch on suspect #2. Although a competing wagon on you would be lovely.
Zack
99% hot gas
Thoughts on KingMorgan/edse?
Zack
99% hot gas
And just so we're clear, I'm fine with a glossy lynch. I was simply curious about the sudden switch from you and bl.
Legato Endless
Prince
I'm really not liking this bandwagon on Glossy. Assuming I'm right that 4/11 players are scum, the mafia very much want to try to get a bandwagon forming so they can hammer and get the mislynch they need to win; being that hasty to vote probably isn't a good move for town or it's just a scum play. We need to be careful about piling votes onto someone. I especially don't like how little reasoning landlubber gave for his vote, and I'm going to give him a big fat FoS for it. That seemed really opportunistic, the sort of vote a scum would absolutely make if Glossy's town.
Zack didn't vote for Glossy even though he said one of him and Glossy is likely to be scum, pointing out that Glossy already has some votes- that would imply that either Zack is town or both Zack and Glossy are scum. Zack being scum and Glossy being town just means Zack uses that logic to vote Glossy and keep the bandwagon rolling.
Maybe my scum detecting has been a bit off this game, but I'm still getting a town read out of Glossy, so I'm going to say that also gives me a town read of Zack and a scum read of landlubber.
Won't vote yet, still got more looking into this to do.
Zack didn't vote for Glossy even though he said one of him and Glossy is likely to be scum, pointing out that Glossy already has some votes- that would imply that either Zack is town or both Zack and Glossy are scum. Zack being scum and Glossy being town just means Zack uses that logic to vote Glossy and keep the bandwagon rolling.
Maybe my scum detecting has been a bit off this game, but I'm still getting a town read out of Glossy, so I'm going to say that also gives me a town read of Zack and a scum read of landlubber.
Won't vote yet, still got more looking into this to do.
Zack
99% hot gas
Okay, you keep saying you don't think glossy is scum, you think she's town, but why
Reading through his posts: landlubber was really active early on, then disappeared, apparently because the melting of the East Coast Blizzard left him with no time to play the game.
One thing I find interesting is this series of posts:
Here, on day 1, after originally joining the Lassie bandwagon he decides that Lassie's not acting all that scummy. Then, on Day 3 and 4...
He's suddenly okay with a Lassie lynch again.
I also notice him defending Backwards Logic a few times, but never spending as much time or effort defending everyone else. Landlubber's first vote day 1 was a mostly-random vote for BL very early on. I also notice that landlubber and BL both voted Glossy at the beginning of today within a few minutes of each other.
Looking at BL's posts, he's briefly mentioned landlubber in his scum leans a couple of times:
Day 5, he posts leans on these two, among others.
"Possibly" landlubber. "scum vibes." Nothing else, though.
What I find really interesting is how totally Backwards' scum reads have been changing over the past two days, even though none of the people he's been listing as scummy have been lynched or even under serious pressure, yet suddenly he's sure an entirely different group is scum. On Day 5, he voted Glossy and suggested looking at landlubber, edse, and Cuthillius, and said his gut told him one of edse and Cuth was scum. Then Day 6 it was me, Zack, Murska, Glossy, and maybe landlubber, with edse and Cuth seemingly forgotten. Then today, he was certain that the scum team was Glossy/Zack/Murska/Cuthillius/KingMorgan, though he at least had some reasoning there. He's just been all over the place. I feel like town Backwards would have thoughts a bit more consistent than this and press on his suspicions a bit more, and that's putting aside that lurking to this extent is much more like scum Backwards than town Backwards.
So, based off my analysis, I'm starting to see landlubber/BL as part of the scum team being much more likely. Maybe also edse, BL voted him for his crappy Day 1 vote on Zack and called him out for it again on Day 5, then abandoned that line, and a couple of edse's posts have pinged me in a bad way.
Or maybe it really is Glossy and Zack and I've just been wrong about them this whole time.
One thing I find interesting is this series of posts:
Here, on day 1, after originally joining the Lassie bandwagon he decides that Lassie's not acting all that scummy. Then, on Day 3 and 4...
He's suddenly okay with a Lassie lynch again.
I also notice him defending Backwards Logic a few times, but never spending as much time or effort defending everyone else. Landlubber's first vote day 1 was a mostly-random vote for BL very early on. I also notice that landlubber and BL both voted Glossy at the beginning of today within a few minutes of each other.
Looking at BL's posts, he's briefly mentioned landlubber in his scum leans a couple of times:
Day 5, he posts leans on these two, among others.
"Possibly" landlubber. "scum vibes." Nothing else, though.
What I find really interesting is how totally Backwards' scum reads have been changing over the past two days, even though none of the people he's been listing as scummy have been lynched or even under serious pressure, yet suddenly he's sure an entirely different group is scum. On Day 5, he voted Glossy and suggested looking at landlubber, edse, and Cuthillius, and said his gut told him one of edse and Cuth was scum. Then Day 6 it was me, Zack, Murska, Glossy, and maybe landlubber, with edse and Cuth seemingly forgotten. Then today, he was certain that the scum team was Glossy/Zack/Murska/Cuthillius/KingMorgan, though he at least had some reasoning there. He's just been all over the place. I feel like town Backwards would have thoughts a bit more consistent than this and press on his suspicions a bit more, and that's putting aside that lurking to this extent is much more like scum Backwards than town Backwards.
So, based off my analysis, I'm starting to see landlubber/BL as part of the scum team being much more likely. Maybe also edse, BL voted him for his crappy Day 1 vote on Zack and called him out for it again on Day 5, then abandoned that line, and a couple of edse's posts have pinged me in a bad way.
Or maybe it really is Glossy and Zack and I've just been wrong about them this whole time.
Zack
99% hot gas
I really like that post, choxorn. Hmm. It does seem like BL, lubber, Legato are just trying to push through a glossy hammer asap. And wouldn't be the first time a BL scum team left the two most prominent townies live til the end of the game (again see underground).
Zack
99% hot gas
Okay, so BL's big post had a big analysis condemning me and like a sentence that said glossy looks bad because of the push to lynch cass (this is before cass' alignment flips). Now he suddenly wants to lynch glossy and just says to look back at his big post where bl barely mentions her? Doesn't sit right.
Cuthillius
King
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2015
- Messages
- 695
ughhh
k tomorrow
k tomorrow
Cuthillius
King
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2015
- Messages
- 695
to be clear
tomorrow i am going to pour effort into this
and explain all my thoughts
and stuff
ugh
tomorrow i am going to pour effort into this
and explain all my thoughts
and stuff
ugh
