Aspiring Rapper's MAFIA- Game Thread

[Zack]

Scum hasn't played well this game.

It's only when you look at how town has played this game that you can say scum did better in comparison.

#sickburns

I wouldn't give scum that much credit. Occam's Razor that crap. Level Zero, most likely.

How can you even say that without knowing who the scum are? Weird post, it's making me reconsider you.

 

[Zack]

like that seems something a scum would say because they want to quickly wrap up the game this round. how on earth could a townie be so calmly confident in anything at this stage?

 

[Glossysushi]

How can you even say that without knowing who the scum are? Weird post, it's making me reconsider you.

I can say that because overall the quality of play has been lackluster. Look at the wagons every day. Town-led, and we've just been leading ourselves to doom.

I own up to part of that - for playing terribly. Tinfoiled on my former town reads and lunched em up.

WOAT.

 

[Zack]

unvote

I need to re-think this

 

[Glossysushi]

like that seems something a scum would say because they want to quickly wrap up the game this round. how on earth could a townie be so calmly confident in anything at this stage?

welp

it's not like we have anything to lose to bet on BL.

If y'all lynch me, you lose.

If we lynch BL, who has been consistently scummy for these past few days, and who susses you and Cuth (who are both pretty much town in my book), we'll have a significantly higher chance of winning.

 

[Glossysushi]

unvote

I need to re-think this

eh, I guess I could show you how I've made consistently 'scummy' posts as town before.

lmao

Apparently after I made this post, everyone thought I was scum (but I wasn't. XD)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=49158908&postcount=305

 

[Zack]

I think KingMorgan is scum. He has been in the currently active users list for pretty much the whole time since the update posted, but hasn't said anything. It's like he's waiting for a wagon to get big enough before he pounces on it to hammer.

 

[Glossysushi]

I wasn't no seer neither.

I'm just okay at this game after continuous failure in the first few days.

 

[Glossysushi]

I think KingMorgan is scum. He has been in the currently active users list for pretty much the whole time since the update posted, but hasn't said anything. It's like he's waiting for a wagon to get big enough before he pounces on it to hammer.

Then who would you take off the list that you just presented? And how does this affect your reads?

 

[Zack]

I don't know. I don't have all the answers. I'm thinking.

 

[KingMorgan]

Your right Zack, I have been re-reading the thread. The votes have piled up and we risk a hammer. I think vote:Glossysushi is where we will find the scum.

 

[Glossysushi]

I don't know. I don't have all the answers. I'm thinking.

If we're wrong about at least one of edse, Legato, and landlubber, then I'd look into KM.2 and then Lohrens.

If it's Lohrens, he/she's dumbtelling and playing in a very uncooperative way. Would be difficult for scum to pull off that bluff, besides, some people on my scum list have called for a Lohrens lynch.

Unlikely to be KM.2, but if it is, then I would switch KM.2 and edse.

 

[Glossysushi]

Your right Zack, I have been re-reading the thread. The votes have piled up and we risk a hammer. I think vote:Glossysushi is where we will find the scum.

Oh my.

Scum, waiting in the wings, wilt thou come and hammer me?

 

[Backwards Logic]

All right, a ton to dig through, mostly me deflating scum counterpoints, but here we go.

What are you talking about? I never called you scum, I never said confirmed townie. You are putting words in my mouth. Make your case against me, but don't straight-up lie to do so.

But you've wanted to lynch me to save yourself...

I would be willing to lynch Backwards, but if I move my vote now it means I will be lynched. BL has to go into the lead.

Disagree. Makes no sense for scum to make such a concerted, in-depth case against me. Why would scum want to lynch Zack? They obviously want me alive, I keep lynching townies. I really doubt a scumbag comes after me like that, when they're under no pressure and I haven't given them any heat. A (misguided) townie frustrated with leadership made post #2177.

I made post 2177. You call me a (misguided) townie . Who's lying exactly?

Spoiler mega Zack post :

Okay, let's try something different. I've done some minor statistical analysis on the posting rates of the 3 categories of players: alive, killed, lynched.

Spoiler :

Player: self-explanatory

Days: days that player was alive

/day: player's posts/day

Total: column average

Spoiler :

bold and underlined: lynched

italics: nightkilled

purple: alive

separated players into three posting tiers - 7 high posters (blue), 10 medium (green), 10 low (red)

To summarize:

Spoiler :

killed - players who were killed averaged 9.9 posts/day

alive - players who are still alive average 16.7 posts/day

lynched - players who were lynched averaged 49.8 posts/day

Spoiler :

high posters - 57% lynched, 0% nightkilled, 43% alive

medium posters - 10% lynched, 70% nightkilled, 20% alive

low posters - 10% lynched, 30% nightkilled, 60% alive

Points of interest:

- No player averaging more than 15 posts/day has been nightkilled.

- Medium posters have been consistently nightkilled and mostly unharmed by the lynch. The only medium posters still alive are right on the edge of being in the low posters tier.

- Low posters have been mostly unharmed by lynch, and relatively unharmed by nightkill.

- High posters have been consistently lynched and completely unharmed by nightkill.

What does this mean?

Note: As choxorn pointed out, I'm operating on the assumption of 4 mafia.

- The mafia have consistently killed off medium posters, while leaving high and low posters relatively untouched.

- The town has consistently lynched high posters. Additionally, every high poster still alive has been a legitimate lynch candidate at some point.

So... what does it mean?

- High posters have been left untouched by the mafia either because the mafia think they're lynchbait and/or one or more mafia are high posters, and don't want to single themselves out by being the only high poster left.

~ Cuthillius has been lynchbait pretty much all game, there's no reason scum would kill him. Glossysushi and Zack are only recently lynchbait; prior to the last few rounds, they were almost universally townread AND high posters, making their continued survival odd (as noted by many). We know Al Sipsclar protected Zack on a night where there was a missing nightkill, though there appear to be plenty of alternative explanations for the lack of kill there that don't involve Zack being targeted. There's a high probability at least one of glossysushi and Zack are scum. Admittedly, both being town wouldn't be unprecedented (see NOTW: The Underground).​

- The mafia have mostly left lurkers alone, with three exceptions: BSmith (a power role), Autolycus and GoldenKnight (the most extreme lurkers, averaging only a single post a day).

~ Extreme lurkers have been killed off. This makes Backwards Logic stick out as the only player averaging ~1 post a day that hasn't been NKed, which makes me inclined to think he's not mafia, along with other reasons I've talked about before. There's a mini-tier above BL and below BSmith with Xym/KingMorgan2 and edse, who have skated along with minimal content and minimal rocking of the boat. Try to think of anything notable they've posted... hard, right? There's a high probability at least one of KingMorgan vol. 2 and edse is scum.​

- That's 2-4 good candidates for scum. Let's sort through the rest.

Possible lynchbait - Cuthillius, choxorn. People have been suspicious of these two all game long, and they've been candidates for the lynch a few times. This could certainly be indicative of legitimate scumminess, or they could be townies the mafia considered low-priority kill targets.​

Mushy - Lohrenswald, Legato Endless, Murska, landlubber. Not really high posters, not really medium posters, not really low posters. Not high-profile, not lynchbait, read mostly neutral. There's probably a scum in this group.​

Who are the scum, Zack?

1 from {glossysushi, Zack}
1 from {KingMorgan vol. 2, edse}
1 from {Lohrenswald, Legato Endless, Murska, landlubber}
1 other that could be anywhere.

I suggest we lynch someone from one of {glossysushi, Zack, KingMorgan, edse} today. I think that gives us a pretty good chance of finding scum. A few people have already voted for glossy, so I will vote: edse as an alternate wagon.

You pretty much say you're scum with glossy here. If you're town, you'd be voting glossy here because, your words "There's a high probability at least one of glossysushi and Zack are scum" Now, let's pretend you're town for a moment. Townie Zack would be voting glossy because you basically came right out and said he has to be scum. But let's be real: you're not voting glossy because you want a counterwagon to save your buddy. Truthfully, you want to keep the votes close so your scum block can hammer the lynch anyway you see fit. All you need is a mislynch and it's pretty much game over, so why not play balls to the wall to make it happen? Taking this further: I don't start the wagon on glossy today. Do you start the wagon on glossy? I think not.

Reading through his posts: landlubber was really active early on, then disappeared, apparently because the melting of the East Coast Blizzard left him with no time to play the game.

One thing I find interesting is this series of posts:



Here, on day 1, after originally joining the Lassie bandwagon he decides that Lassie's not acting all that scummy. Then, on Day 3 and 4...





He's suddenly okay with a Lassie lynch again.

I also notice him defending Backwards Logic a few times, but never spending as much time or effort defending everyone else. Landlubber's first vote day 1 was a mostly-random vote for BL very early on. I also notice that landlubber and BL both voted Glossy at the beginning of today within a few minutes of each other.

Looking at BL's posts, he's briefly mentioned landlubber in his scum leans a couple of times:




Day 5, he posts leans on these two, among others.



"Possibly" landlubber. "scum vibes." Nothing else, though.

What I find really interesting is how totally Backwards' scum reads have been changing over the past two days, even though none of the people he's been listing as scummy have been lynched or even under serious pressure, yet suddenly he's sure an entirely different group is scum. On Day 5, he voted Glossy and suggested looking at landlubber, edse, and Cuthillius, and said his gut told him one of edse and Cuth was scum. Then Day 6 it was me, Zack, Murska, Glossy, and maybe landlubber, with edse and Cuth seemingly forgotten. Then today, he was certain that the scum team was Glossy/Zack/Murska/Cuthillius/KingMorgan, though he at least had some reasoning there. He's just been all over the place. I feel like town Backwards would have thoughts a bit more consistent than this and press on his suspicions a bit more, and that's putting aside that lurking to this extent is much more like scum Backwards than town Backwards.

So, based off my analysis, I'm starting to see landlubber/BL as part of the scum team being much more likely. Maybe also edse, BL voted him for his crappy Day 1 vote on Zack and called him out for it again on Day 5, then abandoned that line, and a couple of edse's posts have pinged me in a bad way.

Or maybe it really is Glossy and Zack and I've just been wrong about them this whole time.

So any other player's scum reads changing over time makes him/her townie as it's part of the townie process, but I do it and I'm scum. Gotcha.

I really like that post, choxorn. Hmm. It does seem like BL, lubber, Legato are just trying to push through a glossy hammer asap. And wouldn't be the first time a BL scum team left the two most prominent townies live til the end of the game (again see underground).

Okay, let's stop with the Underground comparisons right now. I explain myself >>HERE<< for why you and Visor are left alive at the end. This game does not compare in any way to Underground because of the vanilla theme. In a flavor heavy game (like Underground), the abilities are the threat due to their point and click nature. In a vanilla game, the players are. And in this game due to no PM's, the only mechanism to find scum is the in-thread interaction. So assuming I'm scum, it behooves me to nightkill every talkative player to stifle conversation and later on drive an easy lynch or three. Different games, different tactics.

unvote, vote: Backwards Logic

That choxorn post was mighty convenient, wasn't it? Needed an excuse to vote me after your first post defending glossy and he provided it. Glad you can point to that to look like it was 'part of the townie process.'

Content cut for brevity regarding next train from Cuth:

That brings us to his second post.

The substance of what he's saying here is somewhat townie, but the reasoning seems a little off to me. He's picking Murska solely because he's been defending Lassie all game, and because he wants to "see how the rest of the player base reacts". Again, could conceivable come from either alignment, but if Murska is town like I think he might be... well, we'll see.

I find one of the better ways to gauge reactions is to start two wagons on two people who have clearly been agreement on some level. At this stage, Lassie and Murska looked like good options to see how they react to the pressure and how others did as well. It got derailed before it ever really took off, mostly due to Lassie's bizarre claim, but posts from Zack, Cuth and Murksa as well continued to push it in the Lassie direction.

Could be shading, could be quibbling over nonsense. I'd like @Backwards Logic to explain the bold, please.

Me calling Golden Knight out for an easy bandwagon post, especially since others had also called him out prior on lurking. Widen the field = increase the lead Lassie. I suppose widen the field could also mean throw out new candidates for lynch, but I meant the former.

Complaining that he couldn't stop Lassie's lynch, whiiiich is another of those things we were talking about. Heavily shading and voting Lassie.

Uh, no. Complaining more about hammer mechanics than anything. Never mind the fact YOU hammered him.

Thread polling, shading... this has little townie motivation, at least if it comes as one of nine posts. Bad.

Calling out Lohrenswald for a bad post, similar to Golden Knight's. Comes out of nowhere and tacks on a lazy vote.

Notes from here: if he's scum there's likely (only) one in Zack, KM, Murska, and Cuth.

And when I'm not scum...? Care to try and connect those dots any? Bah, it won't matter, it'll be game over if I am lynched today.

If Choxorn is scum, Glossy and Cuthillius aren't. Neither is Backwards logic. Then we have two town wagons and are pretty much screwed.

If Glossy is scum, Choxorn, backwards logic, Landlubber, Legato Endless and me aren't. That leaves three scum among Zack, Murska, Cuthilius, Kingmorgan, Lohrenswald. Kingmorgan and Lohrenswald both voted for Zack two days ago. That means Glossy and Zack scum -> Murska and Cuthililus scum. Murska did try to save Zack by tying the vote with 5 minutes left.

At least somebody gets it.

There's probably not any bussing going on when it's this close. The mafia need only two townies to vote with them. If that early wagon on Glossy was town voting for town, the mafia would be all over it.

This in spades.

If Glossy is scum, the mafia started the counter wagon.
If Glossy isn't scum, most of the wagon (backwards logic, Landlubber, Legato Endless) should be and they failed to attract the one/two more town votes they needed.

Absolutely reasonable conclusion.

Take out Cuthilius and probably Lohrens. It's more likely that you're scum at this point, but nice effort.

both Choxorn and I are town. Backwards is scum. Where is the active mafia you're talking about coming in to hammer Backwards? The hope for today from Mafia is to get me gone. They've left me alive expressly for that purpose.

Now, carry on. If you think I am scum, you should probably vote me. -- oh, but no! That would look bad for you, wouldn't it?

Vote Backwards Logic, and try out this 'unlikely' world of yours. Every other likely world that town has pursued has ended up in failure.

This reads so high and mighty I can't even wrap my head around it. You guys have already come out against me to try and save you, so stop with that argument.

Why is one very unlikely and the other not? Because you say so? Cuthillius and Lohrenswald are in both of your lists btw, so what you're really saying is lubber/bl/legato --> town because <reasons> and zack/murska/kingmorgan scum because <reasons>. BUT, then you conclude that the scum team is zack/glossy/murska/cuth. Where did Kingmorgan go? And if cuth is likely mafia in multiple worlds, why aren't you pushing to lynch him? Probably because a glossy mislynch is easier.

Underlining mine. Didn't you just call glossy scum?

what is also funny about this post is the teaming Choxorn/me when later on edse says that we're not scum together... yet?

Looks like town has mostly consolidated. This is not a bad thing, even though our situation is pretty bad atm.

Yea, just on you and the scum on me.

welp

it's not like we have anything to lose to bet on BL.

If y'all lynch me, you lose.

If we lynch BL, who has been consistently scummy for these past few days, and who susses you and Cuth (who are both pretty much town in my book), we'll have a significantly higher chance of winning.

Scum need a mislynch. I'm that mislynch. Not surprised you're pushing it.

 

[Glossysushi]

Alright, BL. Tell me about a world in which we are town together, and I'll consider moving off of you.

 

[Glossysushi]

welp.

this should be pretty easy to solve if we do last this round.

it's a coin flip, essentially.

according to BL, all of scum have consolidated on him, and all of town have consolidated on me.

according to me, edse (in his tinfoil world), Zack (possibly?), and choxorn, all of scum have consolidated on me, and all of town have consolidated on him.

 

[Glossysushi]

I am willing to consider the possiblity of BL being town together with me, but unless he somehow explains how that's possible, his angry OMGUSing isn't cutting it.

 

[Lohrenswald]

So it doesn't seem like a zack lynch will happen.
I guess there are alternatives to Al Sipsclars theory

so Vote: GlossySushi

 

[Glossysushi]

looooooooooooooool

whoever is town

gg

you just sealed your own defeat

lmao

I can't even.

Scum didn't even play that well this game, yet they trampled y'all. (granted, I sucked at this game too)

 

[Glossysushi]

really, we lost this going into D3, after the visor lynch and after I accidentally posted at night and got silenced.