Aspiring Rapper's MAFIA- Game Thread

[choxorn]

My original vote was for said scummy person. I got annoyed, I changed my vote. It is really that simple. I clarified to state I would change said vote if it mattered. While remaining annoyed. Hence I'd happily vote for Cuth if it made any difference, or anyone else who I thought as scummy. Once unannoyed, my vote changes again.

You voted because you were annoyed?

What do you mean by "anyone else who I thought as scummy"? Who else do you think is scummy? Why are you voting for Lassie if you don't think he's scummy?

 

[Takhisis]

* she

 

[Mat93]

You voted because you were annoyed?

Did I not make that obvious enough?

What do you mean by "anyone else who I thought as scummy"? Who else do you think is scummy? Why are you voting for Lassie if you don't think he's scummy?

I can see lassie being scum, and running a gambit to get a few mislynches, and buy townie cred in her play (by one/two of her named scum team being actually scum). That being said, I don't think she's the most scummy. Cuth, Al Sips, KingMorgan. In that order. Also relatively sure that a minimum of 40% of the scum team are lurking, relatively. I.e. not one of the top posters, say 40+ posts so far. 2/5, or 3/6, etc. Or 2/4, if double kill small team.

 

[Takhisis]

‘Not one of the top posters’? Half the thread has been made by two or three people.

 

[Legato Endless]

I lied yesterday, I'm not vanilla town. I have a PR. It's called game solver - it allows me to read the thread, find scums, clear town; solving the game.

Pfft hahaha.

Holy hell you guys, what was up with that bandwagon that popped up on me at the end of the day? I got like 5 votes in 20 minutes and never had any chance to respond to it. I'd find that fairly reasonable in some cases, but about half of the people voting for me acted like it was suspicious that bandwagons popped up on Arakhor and Lassie so quickly. So tell me: does that also apply to how quickly mine appeared, and right at the end of the day, too?

I'm not so sure. I think I need to take a look at the make up of the two established wagons aggregate reads before your's came out. That might be illuminating later on. Hmm.

Click on the number of replies on the right:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=561948

The biggest surprise on that activity list is I would have sworn Sooh posted a lot less than that.

ALSO, LEGATO, IF YOU USED TO GO BY RIFT ON PERSONALITY CAFE

I will not trust you.

I was Rift on the Evil Empire. That was back in '09. I've never frequented an internet cafe.

Heh, although never being trusted is a fate far better than hearing this in a game:

I kind of also want to kill him just because of how bad he's been.

Ugh.

Two kills N1, on consensus villagers.

Almost certainly both scum. Its likely we are looking at around 4-5 scum then, considering double nightkill.

'Almost certainly'? Did you forget the opening post? o_O

Vote:Lassie still works for me.

LL, could you elaborate a bit? Or even meandering impressions? I kind of want to bounce heads now that's Pigeon gone.

I wasn't around at EoD because it happened to be my birthday...

How did that go?

stranger as scum

There's a wiff on Perfect information syndrome to his fatalistic declaration, although he could just be a massively pessimistic player.

‘Not one of the top posters’? Half the thread has been made by two or three people.

No kidding.

On a more relevant note:

I don't think/know/assume they're both Town - I'm concerned that they may be.

I have concerns for both as scum - already stated ITT.

This is very noncommittal.

I am so hopeful/so freaked out right now

This is null, but a nice prick if scum.

It's well after 5am. I'm going to bed for a couple of hours will set an alarm to be back before EoD.


I'm leaving my vote where it is for now.

I had Arakhor as Scummy early on, not as sure looking at the later posts in his ISO. Regardless, I don't like lynching claimed PRs D1. Either he gets taken out at night or we zero in on him from here.

I'm in the same undecided spot WRT Cuth and Lassie that I was previously and I think both of them should have a pass until tomorrow but also assume there should be a decent amount to analyse with either of them post flip.

Order of WTL from the current options probably

- Choxorn: Scummy start, potentially good for info, feel like attention keeps sliding away/being re-directed elsewhere

- Cuth: Random voting/polling pre-push on Edse, ?weird Visor interaction, makes some good pushes, buddying/white knighting ?null, lynch should provide decent info

- Arakhor/Lassie: Not overly confident in my scummy leans on these two, also have concerns about the build of the trains and how quickly votes piled up.

This is my biggest issue. This feels a lot less to me like an independent conclusion and more a consensus regurgitation. Not a perfect one probably, but it definitely feels more like than an echo than actual analysis. It's a bit scummy regardless, but weirder still for Cass. It lacks the divergence I'd expect in the early game before people being to coalesce, especially in light of reading Cass' bold play in the snake game where she refused to vote for a significant time. That's quite a stylistic quirk to then transition to such (comparative) temerity.

Vote Cass

 

[choxorn]

I can see lassie being scum, and running a gambit to get a few mislynches, and buy townie cred in her play (by one/two of her named scum team being actually scum). That being said, I don't think she's the most scummy. Cuth, Al Sips, KingMorgan. In that order. Also relatively sure that a minimum of 40% of the scum team are lurking, relatively. I.e. not one of the top posters, say 40+ posts so far. 2/5, or 3/6, etc. Or 2/4, if double kill small team.

Okay, that's better. Why do you think that Cuth, Al Sips, and KingMorgan are scum?

 

[Mat93]

Okay, that's better. Why do you think that Cuth, Al Sips, and KingMorgan are scum?

Cuth:

Spoiler :

WIFOM



Defending of Cass, multiple examples in the thread. PIS. My thoughts similar to Glossy's:





Multiple cases made on multiple people, but yet this post:



Refusing to actually attempt to lynch people until you know the thoughts of multiple people first. Wanting to follow consenus, not wanting to go out on a limb yourself. So you can defend with 'I wasn't the only one who found him scummy and wanting to lynch him'. Further PIS

Also very strong OMGUS. I haven't even been voted (so far), and edse has suspicion, but is unlikely to be lynched today without someone championing it. Both however have voted for you.



I'm extremely interested in why Cuth has objections to Al Sips as a lynch. Made almost no posts about him (IIRC), but he is one of the main lynch candidates right now, and going up. Alternative bandwagon to defend scum buddy? If Cuth flips, Al Sips is my #1 suspect.



Has some evidence that Glossy will support his lynch (not concrete, but that Glossy could be persuaded). Only after this does he go for it.



Meta read on him also.


Shorter version: WIFOM, PIS, OMGUS, and not starting an attempt to lynch someone without having other people's views on the candidate first. Gut feeling, and very strong gut feeling on Al Sips/Cuth being scum team. If Cuth flips, will be unwilling to not vote for Al Sips.

Shorter version: WIFOM, PIS, OMGUS, and not starting an attempt to lynch someone without having other people's views on the candidate first. Gut feeling, and very strong gut feeling on Al Sips/Cuth being scum team. If Cuth flips, will be unwilling to not vote for Al Sips.

And the wagon pushing just before deadline.


Al Sips, mainly by links to Cuth, if Cuth flips I'm 99% sure on Al. As in the pushing everyone but Al for a possible lynch (/exaggeration on everyone. But out of lynch possibilities) And general agreement on other people's view on him.


King. Gut. Starting scummy (as per meta), but not being scummy anymore. Once there was a few posts on it. Hard to quantify much more than gut.

 

[Glossysushi]

Because I hard defended you numerous times yesterday and even saved you from getting lynched.

And yet I am still a scum read.

Shape up or ship out.

lolwat

I'm here

late night ramblings but what

?

 

[Glossysushi]

Cuth:




And the wagon pushing just before deadline.


Al Sips, mainly by links to Cuth, if Cuth flips I'm 99% sure on Al. As in the pushing everyone but Al for a possible lynch (/exaggeration on everyone. But out of lynch possibilities) And general agreement on other people's view on him.


King. Gut. Starting scummy (as per meta), but not being scummy anymore. Once there was a few posts on it. Hard to quantify much more than gut.

ugh

I really like this post

idk

I think one of you or Cuth has to be a wolf

what do you think?

 

[Glossysushi]

let's see how much Cuth says he'll support me/Lassie now

Vote: Cuth

Atm I'm just bored and poking at things.

unmotivated. eww.

 

[Glossysushi]

this is a weird post to make

but I see two possible worlds atm

let me explain. There are people who are linked, and people who aren't. AUGH

my reads are shifting based off of who I trust in either of these groups.

anyway, people who are always town: me, Cass_, Lassie, Sooh, Zack

outside of that, we have group 1: visor, jarrema, takhsis, legato endless, Mat93

group 2: cuthilius, al sips, king morgan, landlubber, backwards logic, golden knight, murska

other: autolycus, bsmith, lohrenswald, edse, choxorn, xym

FOR SOME REASON THESE PEOPLE ARE LINKED

what does it mean?

 

[Glossysushi]

the people who are in the 'other' category, I don't see as being linked to anyone in particular.

 

[Glossysushi]

my working theory is often group 1 = scum

but then I see people in group 2 as scum, and idk, I don't think that cuth/visor are teamed. Then I switch and think that group 2 = scum, but then people from group 1 do something weird again.

 

[Glossysushi]

lol

I just had a thought

what if it's multiball

l o l

then that would explain the two nightkills

but I'm probably crazy

 

[Zack]

group 2 seems really random

 

[Zack]

actually it all seems kind of random, even if I like the idea of it

 

[Glossysushi]

group 2 seems really random

I put people who cannot be w/w with group 1 in group 2.

but hmm

I'm more and more convinced that they're just super wolfy villagers -.-

 

[Zack]

like what differentiates goldenknight from autolycus. they are exactly the same

 

[Glossysushi]

the main way I used to determine connections was sort of a lack of interaction + soft defending

I'll explain.

1) lack of hard pushing

2) maybe scum reading, but never voting

3) slightly defending, giving some excuses

hard defending is more likely not between w/w.

 

[Glossysushi]

like what differentiates goldenknight from autolycus. they are exactly the same

golden was mentioned, specifically called out by KingMorgan for lurking the thread. Autolycus was not.