Australian Labor implode.

Virote_Considon said:
I don't see how one former leader quitting during a hissy-fit is the party "imploding". Sounds like if anything it'll just reinforce some sense of solidarity in the party.
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The party has been simmering with unrest for a while now, and now that Rudd has finally crossed the Rubicon, it's all really coming to the fore.

It's led to pretty much the entire front bench tearing shreds out of each other in public, and both sides fairly strongly hinting that they'll take the whole party down with them if they don't get their way. A bunch of Gillard's supporters (Wayne Swan in particular) have just been gleefully handing ammunition to the opposition's attack ads to try and destroy Rudd's election chances, and if Rudd loses the ballot there's every probability that he's going to sit on the backbenches and do his best to destabilise Julia.

Either way, there's a lot of very damaging words said that can't now be unsaid, and there's going to be an awful lot more bad blood within the party at the end of it. They're haemmorhaging support at a great rate, and it's going to be a long time before they can really rebuild any sense of trust with the electorate. And should Labor lose the next election (to Tony "pullout method" Abbott of all people), you can be certain that the bloodbath will truly be something to behold.

I'd call it an implosion, personally. It would be nice to think that it might lead them to have a moment of introspection and reflect on the utter insanity of their factional system that has caused first the NSW and now the federal party to become utterly dysfunctional, but then I realise how absurdly optimistic a notion that is.

I have to admit though, I'm guiltily kind of enjoying it in a slow-motion-carcrash sort of way. And someone today coined the term "Kevenge" which is almost worth the price of admission on its own.
 
Eh, Gillard's done well with the hand dealt to her. She took the MRRT and somehow husbanded that through Parliament. Granted, she dropped political capital and burned up public trust like it was hawt but she got it through. And the quicker it got through the less contentious the damn thing became. Quite how it become impossible to sell something that should have been so damned popular is a question Kevin needs to ask himself.

Much the same could be said of the carbon tax though that was always going to be a hard sell. It's complex to begin with, the media's attention span is tepid at best and without a good comms strategy it was a losing battle to begin with. It didn't help that the waters were already so damned murky.

Really, it's kind of a shame that important stuff like the Gonski Review has come out in the twilight year of a Labor government. If Gillard had more time she could have husbanded it through over the 'dead bodies' of private schools and institutionalised it before Abbot could wreck the whole damned thing.

As it is, he won't be able to get rid of the MRRT or carbon tax as easily as he wants. And frankly I'm not even convinced he wants to. But the NBN? He'd be nutty enough to cut it. Oh well, time to migrate to sane National ruled New Zealand. Johnki4lyfe.

Virote_Considon said:
I don't see how one former leader quitting during a hissy-fit is the party "imploding". Sounds like if anything it'll just reinforce some sense of solidarity in the party.
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The party is comprehensively destroying its electoral chances for the next decade against the most unelectable opposition leader since like freaking Hewson 25 years ago. (And I'm being charitable to Abbot he's arguably even more unelectable than that). I'm gutted and not because I'm a Labor fan... but because I was betting on Abbot leading the Liberal Party to a defeat so I could get to actually vote for Malcolm Turnball. Whose arguably the best Prime Ministerial material we have in this god forsaken place.

taillesskangaru said:
This has been drum up way out of proportion by the media, all to the detriment of the ALP's prospects in the next election of course. Politics is no longer about government, planning and policies; it's all about personality conflicts now.
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Mang. Did you miss like Howard and Costello? Or like... Hawk and Keating? Or like freaking the whole career of Billy Hughes or to reach back even further Deakin and Reid? It's been a done thing for a long time. About the only new thing is Rudd has been conducting a personal vendetta against his own parties electoral chances for like two years now. Oh, and he's a thoroughly unlovable .
 
For the casual non-australian observor, Kevin Rudd, ex-foreign minister come ex-pm has not quite the party, he has quite the position of foreign minister. Thus the man is still in the party, he hasn't cracked a fit and gone independent or to another party. I repeat it is not a case of hissy fit leaving the party as the misunderstanding goes. Rather in the process of him quitting the FM post, the party tensions that have been stewing for months and which were positively boiling over in the last few weeks have been dragged to the forefront of Australian politics and brought the private dysfunction between the supporters of Gillard and Rudd out into the open in all its magnificence.

This has naturally resulted in a very public power struggle (along with some unretractable public statements) which has manifested itself in the PM calling for a leadership spill in a bid to settle the question of leadership. Needless to say the opposition are loving it :rolleyes:
 
Gillard is not a particularly likeable character, and this counts against her in what is essentially a clash of personality, rather than policy. I side with Rudd, not because of any substantive difference between the two, but because I just prefer him. I never liked that he was dumped in the first place, and a lot of people would feel the same, so he gets to play the 'victim' card here no matter what he does.

It's an implosion in the sense that it's hard to see any positive way forward from here for the ALP. If Gillard wins, there have been several ministers already that have declared support for Rudd (or hinted at it), which would indicate that she doesn't even have the full support of her own party, which is pretty tough when you're running a minority government. Rudd apparently has at least 30 of 103 votes, and that's evident of a substantial rift. Rudd or any other Rudd supporter could quit, triggering a by-election that the ALP would in all likelihood lose, handing the government to the opposition (probably). There isn't even a guarantee that Rudd would go away, though it'd be more likely that the leadership speculation would disappear.

But then, if Rudd wins, the exact same could happen if some of the existing front bench (who have bitterly attacked him) decide to go. There seems to be no way out of this, but I would at least think Rudd might be able to minimise electoral losses (because Gillard would get hammered at the moment), which could mean five years in opposition instead of ten.

I'm curious as to the possibility of a 3rd candidate. If Rudd hasn't got the numbers, but Gillard's support is clearly undercut, perhaps Shorten may pop up to take the reigns. He hasn't been doing his chances any harm.
 
Obviously I'm not privy to the internal machinations of the ALP or how it's MP's will vote on monday , but I get the impression that Rudd is unlikely to win and knows it . The goal is to maximize his vote to further undermine Gillard's leadership , allowing him to snipe from the backbench and ultimately gain the leadership in a second ballot a la Paul Keating .

But I read an article today where it was pointed out that the difference between Rudd and Keating in terms of executing this plan is that MPs know what they are getting with Rudd , unlike Keating.
 
That's exactly what he's doing; he's got a whole sacrificial lamb complex going on. I'd be willing to put money on the fact that he'll stand because his 'friends' in the party have encouraged him to stand and not because he wants too.
 
Masada said:
Mang. Did you miss like Howard and Costello? Or like... Hawk and Keating? Or like freaking the whole career of Billy Hughes or to reach back even further Deakin and Reid? It's been a done thing for a long time. About the only new thing is Rudd has been conducting a personal vendetta against his own parties electoral chances for like two years now. Oh, and he's a thoroughly unlovable .
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Point taken. Still, it does seem to this casual observer that personality conflict has so utterly dominated political "discourse" now, so much so than in the past.
 
Camikaze said:
I'm curious as to the possibility of a 3rd candidate. If Rudd hasn't got the numbers, but Gillard's support is clearly undercut, perhaps Shorten may pop up to take the reigns. He hasn't been doing his chances any harm.
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It seemed to me that Simon Crean has all but put his hand up, at least for the next round. Shorten of course will pop up as soon as he feels he has a shot. Actually, I can't help but think that pretty much all of the "loyal" frontbenchers who've come out swinging in the last few days are vying for the succession once Rudd is (they hope) dealt with and Julia is put out of her misery at the election.

rugbyLEAGUEfan said:
Obviously I'm not privy to the internal machinations of the ALP or how it's MP's will vote on monday , but I get the impression that Rudd is unlikely to win and knows it . The goal is to maximize his vote to further undermine Gillard's leadership , allowing him to snipe from the backbench and ultimately gain the leadership in a second ballot a la Paul Keating .

But I read an article today where it was pointed out that the difference between Rudd and Keating in terms of executing this plan is that MPs know what they are getting with Rudd , unlike Keating.
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Yes but there's a lot of seats going to get awful marginal with Gillard at the helm. A lot of people to get very nervous about their jobs. And if Rudd looks like being close enough with the numbers - if not to win but to be a continual thorn in Gillard's side - I can see that momentum pushing some of them over the edge. I agree it looks unlikely he'll win on Monday, but never underestimate the naked self-interest of an ALP apparatchik.
 
taillesskangaru said:
Point taken. Still, it does seem to this casual observer that personality conflict has so utterly dominated political "discourse" now, so much so than in the past.
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Nah, its just a problem of perspective. I remember Howard and Costello but at that stage I didn't have the political knowledge I do now. I doubt more than a handful of people remember like Reid and Deacon first hand. And not all that many more would remember Billy Hughes and the epic stoushes he got involved in either. So at best, you and I, have two points of reference and maybe a third at arms length in Hawke and Keating. Which is 30 out of a 110 years of political history at the Commonwealth level. Also, colonial politics was all personal. :evil:

Polycrates said:
Yes but there's a lot of seats going to get awful marginal with Gillard at the helm. A lot of people to get very nervous about their jobs. And if Rudd looks like being close enough with the numbers - if not to win but to be a continual thorn in Gillard's side - I can see that momentum pushing some of them over the edge. I agree it looks unlikely he'll win on Monday, but never underestimate the naked self-interest of an ALP apparatchik.
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The other point to be made is that most of the people who are marginal aren't involved in Cabinet and didn't have to engage with Rudd all that much. They'll be the people able to look past his character flaws in the interest of self-preservation.
 
it could be better

:love: turnbull
 
Personally, I hope they keep Gillard. She'll be a LOT easier to destroy come next election.

I tell you what, she must be doing the worst job in the world if even Abbott looks better than her. :lol:

Quite simply though, there is no one in the current Parliament worthy or capable of the job.
 
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