Biden Drops Out

What do you think about Obama not endorsing Harris?

Im actually kinda surprised he hasn't maybe just playing it overly safe since he knows that anyone with his endorsement wins automatically?
and your earlier post KMR, about people thought to be major candidates instantly throwing their support behind Harris.

Here's my take on this particular question.

If the people who were helping Biden reach the conclusion that he needed to bow out were also planning the next steps effectively, how they should want things to play out is this. All delegates are officially released. Anyone who wants to is invited to throw their hat in the ring. No one does. All the delegates thus move smoothly to the person favored by the person to whom they were pledged (and whom they had agreed to support as VP). In the period after no one throws their hat in the ring and the vote, people start endorsing Harris, as Pelosi has done. Obama's endorsement will come when it feels like it clinches the deal. That way, it's theoretically open to anyone (democratic), but there's such a groundswell of support for Harris, that we just go with Harris.
 
Who thinks Harris will win?

Not that she's more likely to than Biden. That's yesterday's question. Today's question is will Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump?
 
I do.
 
I think she can win. Trump/Vance is a weak ticket and there are a bunch of things favoring Democrats right now.

We don't know whether she will win, of course. I know I said I was skeptical of her ability to win in previous posts and that hasn't changed.

But something has changed and it's summed up here:
gandalf-hope.gif
 
and your earlier post KMR, about people thought to be major candidates instantly throwing their support behind Harris.

Here's my take on this particular question.

If the people who were helping Biden reach the conclusion that he needed to bow out were also planning the next steps effectively, how they should want things to play out is this. All delegates are officially released. Anyone who wants to is invited to throw their hat in the ring. No one does. All the delegates thus move smoothly to the person favored by the person to whom they were pledged (and whom they had agreed to support as VP). In the period after no one throws their hat in the ring and the vote, people start endorsing Harris, as Pelosi has done. Obama's endorsement will come when it feels like it clinches the deal. That way, it's theoretically open to anyone (democratic), but there's such a groundswell of support for Harris, that we just go with Harris.

Like a well-run machine.

Hillary 16 -> Biden 20 -> Harris 24 :salute:
 
Yes, the public spectacle of the president’s cognitive impairment prompted Democrats to conclude Biden could not win reelection, and the conclusion that Biden could not win reelection led to his withdrawal from the race. But why Biden bowed out as the Democrat candidate — or why Biden or others claim he did — isn’t significant.

Instead, what matters is that Biden lacks a stable mental capacity. That matters because a man lacking in lucidity, even if only at times, cannot discharge the powers and duties of the office of president. As I wrote after the debate, “Whether caused by age, dementia, or Alzheimer’s matters not. The president of the United States cannot discharge his duties if he lacks lucidity for even a fraction of the day. The commander-in-chief must be able to command the executive branch 24-7.”

Biden’s withdrawal as a candidate is not enough; he must resign from the presidency, or the cabinet must invoke the 25th Amendment.
 
The propaganda machine is in full swing. The spindoctors are working overtime. They’re determined to depict Biden’s retreat from the race as an act of unparalleled altruism. As a brave effacement of the self in order that democracy might yet live. As something ‘utterly extraordinary’, in the words of the NYT. Be awed at the ‘bigness of what Biden just did’, it says. Get a room. History is being rewritten in real time. And we cannot let it stand. Not in order that we might kick Biden when he’s down, but in order that we might uphold the truth. The truth here being that Biden’s late retreat, and his anointing of Kamala Harris as his rightful successor, speaks not to the integrity of his administration but to its chaos and corruption.
 
A popular reddit post presents Biden with the caption "he will be really mad when he learns he decided not to run".
Sums it up, imo. He wanted to run, was forced not to. But one can hope that while they force the potus, they do it with the people's best interests at heart :jesus:
 
I still think Trump’s the favorite, but it’s closer now and Vance is a weird dude. Trump is deeply hateful but in an old grandpa way “Kamala Harris… they’re saying she wasn’t even born here, you know? They’re saying she never visited our border. Our big, beautiful border. And she never visited our factories. And you know, she was part of the worst president in the whole world, the whole world.”

JD Vance is hateful in a like far right incel group chat type way. “Kamala Harris did not have children. Look, she should have been trying to get her eggs fertilized at age 18. Maybe even 16. With me? Haha, I’m kidding, that’s race mixing. But…. Maybe?”

He is absolutely going to have some crap backfire like that. Will it be enough to move enough voters? Idk.
 
I still think Trump’s the favorite, but it’s closer now and Vance is a weird dude. Trump is deeply hateful but in an old grandpa way “Kamala Harris… they’re saying she wasn’t even born here, you know? They’re saying she never visited our border. Our big, beautiful border. And she never visited our factories. And you know, she was part of the worst president in the whole world, the whole world.”

JD Vance is hateful in a like far right incel group chat type way. “Kamala Harris did not have children. Look, she should have been trying to get her eggs fertilized at age 18. Maybe even 16. With me? Haha, I’m kidding, that’s race mixing. But…. Maybe?”

He is absolutely going to have some crap backfire like that. Will it be enough to move enough voters? Idk.
Was it ever a plan to have his daughter be vp?
 
But something has changed and it's summed up here:
A feeling easily lost, I think. She needs to move the polls quickly, or it'll prove fleeting.

She's probably gonna lean heavily into 2025 and abortion. I don't think she's imaginative. For swing states, talk of cost of living and inflation is probably necessary. Some anti-corporate sentiments would go far. Call them price gougers. Anything will do, true or not.

For the love of Jesus, she better not play up the cop angle. Of all the people I've met who talk crime as an important issue, I knew all but one to be racist. Talk of crime is often, probably usually, equivalent to uphold hierarchy. It won't move those already sympathetic to Trump, but will remind people sympathetic to her that she put pothead behind bars. If I see her do this, I'm moving to no, doesn't get the zeitgeist, will not win.
 
For the love of Jesus, she better not play up the cop angle
But Law Enforcer vs Law Breaker is going to be part of how the campaign frames things, I'd wager.

Edit: The heart of the campaign should be. You always wanted to vote against Trump, but you had some reservations about Biden's age; now those reservations have been done away with.
 
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But Law Enforcer vs Law Breaker is going to be part of how the campaign frames things, I'd wager.
Watch the energy shift.

The swing voters it is intended to persuade probably shouldn't be presumed to be free of bias. Law and order types are most often full of that, in my experience.

Simultaneously, you've brought back powerful memories of unfair experiences with law enforcement in an alarmingly large number of people. Distrust follows.

It's all loss, for little gain. I suppose it appeals to liberal middle class types who despise Trump, but these aren't exactly swing voters in swing states.
 
Watch the energy shift.
I fully intend to. It seems to me as though it already has.

I believe it counts against her as little as I believe Trump's mug shot helped him with minority voters.
 
Hey fellas, is it a coup when the President is replaced by the Vice President?
It hasn’t reached the point where pro-Harris loyalists seize control of the radio station and declare an interim state of emergency, but it’s close enough.

Do consumer protection laws against bait-and-switch apply to presidential primaries? :lol:
 
Oh, by the way, she should 100% lean in to "Laughing Kamala": Yeah, I'm a happy person. Optimistic. Extremely optimistic about America and its future. Whaddaya want? Some grumpy old codger who seems aggrieved about every damn thing on the planet. Nobody needs that noise. That the best you got, old geezer? You better start thinking up some new nicknames.
 
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Remembering that none of us wanted Biden as our candidate in the first place. He was forced on us as a consensus candidate when Bernie started polling over the 30% range in the primary and was showing a clear plurality in most races.

It puts in perspective that clinging to Biden was always more out of necessity rather than affection. So when faced with moving on to Kamala, there really isn't much reason to wring our hands and gnash our teeth about it.
Harris was also forced on us.
 
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