China invasion of Taiwan POLL!

[ellie]

No i think britain is too willing to send troops everywhere already , besides Im not convinced

a) That china would ever get a comittee of leaders mad enough to take this action (the rhetoric is probably just sabre rattling). Obviously if independence was formally declared then action may be taken.

b) that china can invade anyway . Yes theres a huge industrial powerbase but they need to control the skies, and force an amphibious landing .

 

[Evertonian]

@Dann
Thanks for your clarifications. I didn't actually know about Koxinga and his heirs, I thought it went straight from being under Dutch control to Qing dynasty Chinese control in the 1680s. Thanks for putting me right.

I knew the KMT had been the government of China, and weren't just some rebel group who had never had power. However I was making the point I did because presently there is no question who is the internationally recognised government of China, and the KMT, albeit that they used to be in power, wanted it overthrown.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Why not War game the scenario ???

Objective: Take Taiwan before US, Japan intervention and force a peace settlement. Gambling on the International unwillingness for a full scale invasion of Taiwan once China are in control

The only way for China currently to succesfully invade Taiwan would be to use covert ops, spys to disable, derail and delay the Taiwanese Military. Like smuggling mortars and taking out aircraft on the ground. Blow up ship yards and so on.

Airborne invasion without complete air superiorty would be insane. I don't see China waging a long and attritional air war. perhapes they will try to overwhelm the defences in sheer numbers. How many Airborne divisions dose China have ? Not that many at all. I think it take 600 Herc to transport a Battalion.

Amphious assaults are hard to pull off. Assuming the Japan and US have alerted their fleets but decided no no action. It leaves the small be superior Taiwanese fleet. Fleets now enage with huge missle volley's in which technology plays a huge part. The Chinese again try to swamp the snaller fleet with fighters, bombers as well. Personally I feel the small tawanese fleet will be overwhelmed.
Transporting troops can be done Dunkirk style. Theres no way the Tawain army can cover the entire coast line effectivley. (Intell will play a big). If the Chinese go with an para drop and it is succesful then the sea landing will succeed. itll be a bloody fight nonetheless.
How many Troops and supplies can China land ? Enough to take over the entire island and end all resistence. unlikey to succeed before reinforcements from Allies are mobolized and approcce Taiwan

Once the US and Japanese fleets come the future of Taiwan will be decided in the by the impending sea battle. Would China risk this all over Taiwan ? as Ellie said (the rhetoric is probably just sabre rattling).

 

[Dr Jimbo]

And the invasion of somewhere on the other side of the world has what to do with me? Sorry, It's hard to feel passionate about Taiwan.

 

[Dann]

Man, I hope my friends in Taiwan don't see this thread. They won't be just depressed, they'd have nightmares!

 

[IglooDame]

i've read about this somewhere, but can't find it at the moment. there are probably other simulations where the seventh fleet wins, but it's anything but clear cut "send in the american carriers and end of story"

china has a large stockpile of missiles both conventional and nuclear, as well as some fairly advanced russian made submarines, and missile destroyers. i don't think the US really wants to risk losing a carrier by declaring war on china, and EU is even less likely to get invovled

I've just refreshed my memory of the PLAN's ships and subs. Essentially they have five Kilo-class diesel subs, a Sovremenny-class guided missile destroyer, and a lot of floating targets. (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/navy.htm )

I don't discount the potential effectiveness of the Kilos (one conventional Argentine Type-209 drove the Brits nuts in the Falklands war, and but for torpedo problems probably would have sunk a couple ships) but on the other hand a US carrier battle group has significant advantages that tip the scales the other way - notably, complete AEW coverage, area-wide air-defense, and a substantial surface-attack strike range.

If the PRC were to play its cards right and induce a second Korean conflict, while at the same time catching whatever nearby US carrier unawares and crippling or sinking it, along with convincing Japan to stay neutral, I think they could at least get a significant invasion force across the strait, but that's all a bit of a stretch.

 

[luiz]

Taiwan has never been a sovereign state. It was regained by China from the Japanese at the end of ww2. The people who retreated there were trying to overthrow the now internationally recognised government of China. If they declare independence they are stealing land (and sea) from China.

In the 2 scenarios, (1. Taiwan declares independence, 2. China sends troops into Taiwan without there being a declaration of independence by Taiwan) I would prefer to join in on the Chinese side in the first case, and stay neutral in the second.

Imagine if a group within the US tried to overthrow the Government, retreated to Hawai, then declared independence! Wouldn't you want the US to do something about it!

False analogy and you know it.
The ones who overthrowed the government were the communists lead by Mao. Taiwan represents the old chinese govrenment. China is the rebel province.

The correct analogy is: If a communist grouop manages to take power in the US and the current government fled to Hawaii, should we help Hawaii? My answer is YES.

 

[JohnRM]

Who cares who the rebels and who the legitimate government is? What this boils down to is two facts...

Aggression of a powerful, Communist Dictatorship against a weaker Democratic nation. That's it. The people of Taiwan have the right of self-determination. The land does not belong to the government, it belongs to the people. Now if China was a democratic nation, I would support China, but it is not. It is a Communist Dictatorship that denies the basic and essential human rights to its own people.

If you allow China to take Taiwan, unopposed, where will they strike next? If Taiwan is attacked, by China, I want my country to send troops and, even myself.

 

[Evertonian]

@luiz,
I concede my analogy wasn't very good, also as Dann pointed out to me (I hadn't realised) Taiwan was independent for a while in the 17th century too so I was wrong about that as well.

However, on the substantive point the world (and almost every single person in China) recognises the communist party as the legitimate government of China. Surely you can accept this even though you yourself might not recognise it as legitimate? The KMT retreated in the civil war to somewhere that was unambiguously part of China. I don't think a rival political faction to the Government should be able to steal land and surrounding waters from China. What if Lula left office in Brazil, went with some of his supporters to Sao Paulo and said 'Right, we're setting up our own independent state here.' Brazilians wouldn't stand for it.

 

[luiz]

@luiz,
I concede my analogy wasn't very good, also as Dann pointed out to me (I hadn't realised) Taiwan was independent for a while in the 17th century too so I was wrong about that as well.

However, on the substantive point the world (and almost every single person in China) recognises the communist party as the legitimate government of China. Surely you can accept this even though you yourself might not recognise it as legitimate? The KMT retreated in the civil war to somewhere that was unambiguously part of China. I don't think a rival political faction to the Government should be able to steal land and surrounding waters from China. What if Lula left office in Brazil, went with some of his supporters to Sao Paulo and said 'Right, we're setting up our own independent state here.' Brazilians wouldn't stand for it.

The KMT did not retreat voluntarily. They were defeated at severall battles.
If a rebel group takes Brasília and Lula flees, I'll still recognise him as the rightfull ruler. If he decides to set the government in some province, I would support it.

In the chinsese case it's even more extreme, since the rebels that took power were among the most brutal people who ever took power in all human history. In number of deaths, the chinese regime is only behind the Soviet Union.

Of course I accept that today, after severall decades, the communists are the legitmate govt. of China. But I also accept the fact that Taiwan is even more legitmate, and have all right in the world to exist. And is we really care at all about democracy or protecting other peoples from tyranny(and the Chinese govt is a tyrant), then we should defend Taiwan. In fact, if the whole Western World standed together saying that they'll defend Taiwan, China would never dare to do anything.

 

[Pointlessness]

To claim that China has even a remote chance of invading Taiwan is ludicrous. The probablity of such an invasion is equal to a US invasion of Canada. No chance. None. Should I state this again? Completely impossible.

Why? Because China is doing to well economically to risk such an invasion, as anyone with an ounce of logic can tell.

 

[JohnRM]

China's beef is about land, Taiwan's is about freedom. I side with freedom.

 

[luiz]

To claim that China has even a remote chance of invading Taiwan is ludicrous. The probablity of such an invasion is equal to a US invasion of Canada. No chance. None. Should I state this again? Completely impossible.

Why? Because China is doing to well economically to risk such an invasion, as anyone with an ounce of logic can tell.

I surely agree with you that China won't try anything in the near future.

However the current economic growth in China can't last forever. In fact, many economists believe that the chinese economy will collapse within a decade, because of the rising price of raw materials and the rotten credit of the chinese banks.

If the chinese economy really collapses, then we have much to fear. Dictatorships tend to do all sort of crazy stuff when they're down, to distract the people. Just like the Argentinian government invaded the Falklands to distract the people of a deep economic crisis.

 

[Evertonian]

Of course I accept that today, after severall decades, the communists are the legitmate govt. of China. But I also accept the fact that Taiwan is even more legitmate, and have all right in the world to exist. And is we really care at all about democracy or protecting other peoples from tyranny(and the Chinese govt is a tyrant), then we should defend Taiwan. In fact, if the whole Western World standed together saying that they'll defend Taiwan, China would never dare to do anything.

I don't accept that the Chinese Government is a tyrant. It's no worse than average, and in some respects is better than most. There is a long tradition of relatively un-corrupt public administration in China (pre-dating the Communists). And I don't accept that Taiwan is even more legitimate. Furthermore most people in Taiwan don't want a declaration of independence. Why are people trying to force on them to make a complete breakaway from China when they don't want to!

 

[allhailIndia]

I think that China would not try to invade Taiwan as the consequences of losing such a battle is a little to dangerous for their own good. They would never be able to fully recover from the loss of face, mainly.

All the same, I wouldn't want India to send troops or anything, there's no point in trying to antagonize China when our relations right now are on such an upswing. Plus, I think the Chinese would prefer to try and get a "constitutional" re-unification, with more likely, the Taiwenese people actually consenting to such a re-unification.

 

[chancellor_dan]

Its not relevant. The average Briton couldnt locate taiwan, let alone care wether or not the Chinese attack it so No.

 

[Flenser]

China's beef is about land, Taiwan's is about freedom. I side with freedom.

Actually China's beef is about sovereignty.

I voted no, and I am not from Europe.

This is China's problem, and the wolrd should respect China's right to mitigate its internal afffairs.

To everyone who says that intervention is necessary to protect "democracy", then I'm sure you guys would support military action in Cuba, Libya, Iran, Pakistan, And even China then? I think not.

 

[Pointlessness]

I surely agree with you that China won't try anything in the near future.

However the current economic growth in China can't last forever. In fact, many economists believe that the chinese economy will collapse within a decade, because of the rising price of raw materials and the rotten credit of the chinese banks.

If the chinese economy really collapses, then we have much to fear. Dictatorships tend to do all sort of crazy stuff when they're down, to distract the people. Just like the Argentinian government invaded the Falklands to distract the people of a deep economic crisis.

You make a good point there.

I still disagree, though. The Chinese government has been through tough times before, and an economic collapse will be unlikely to provoke an attack on Taiwan. Besides, the government is trying its best to cool down the overheated economy, to limit the damage a possible recession will cause.

I suppose my ultamite point is this: Is an invasion on Taiwan possible? Yes. Is such an invasion probable? Of course not. There is no reason to send troops to Taiwan.

Welcome to CFC, Flenser.

 

[stratego]

The KMT did not retreat voluntarily. They were defeated at severall battles....

In the chinsese case it's even more extreme, since the rebels that took power were among the most brutal people who ever took power in all human history. In number of deaths, the chinese regime is only behind the Soviet Union.

Have you ever stop to ask yourself how were the rebels able to take over a land such as China? They didn't come in with a hugh force and overran the territory. They reason they won was because they had the support of the people, which the KMT didn't. A rebel group wouldn't be able to win if the KMT was a legitimate "Democracy" as some claim.

 

[luiz]

I don't accept that the Chinese Government is a tyrant. It's no worse than average, and in some respects is better than most. There is a long tradition of relatively un-corrupt public administration in China (pre-dating the Communists). And I don't accept that Taiwan is even more legitimate. Furthermore most people in Taiwan don't want a declaration of independence. Why are people trying to force on them to make a complete breakaway from China when they don't want to!

"Great Leap Forward"
"Cultural Revolution"
"Political Prisioners"
"No Freedom of Press"
"Tianamen Square"
"No free elctions"

Yea, doesn't sound like a tyranny to me