[NFP] Civilization VI: Possible New Civilizations Thread

I disagree with PhoenicianGold's theory, but Korea did have a small empire under Goguryeo that extended into Manchuria (albeit not into the southern tip of the peninsula...).
the only characteristic of an empire isn’t necessarily imperialism, as well.

Something can be an empire without being expansionist.

Haiti surely falls in line with some nations in the game like Hungary or Poland which never were too big beyond their direct region but had internal characteristics making them interesting enough to include
 
All I'm saying is that the rule seems to generally hold. The player factions, funneled by the mechanics of the 4X game contours, tend to aggressively settle and conquer territory (or otherwise establish wider zones of power/influece). I think after 50 civs it does appear to be a soft decision that if they were only ever going to have a limited roster, they were going to keep it to "big powers" in their respective regions. Not only to maintain some semblance of a meritocracy (so players aren't seriously asking for dozens of smaller kingdoms and whining when they don't appear), but also to avoid criticism for misrepresenting cultures which were not known for being territorially aggressive or regionally dominant.
Not sure where in history it's talked about how Haiti has never been aggressive, or not expansionist? They did take control over the whole island of Hispaniola for a time literally being called the First Empire of Haiti. I think if you want to talk about the Caribbean, as it's own region, I'm sure that they would be at the top of the list as a regional power in the history of the region.
 
the only characteristic of an empire isn’t necessarily imperialism, as well.

Something can be an empire without being expansionist.

Haiti surely falls in line with some nations in the game like Hungary or Poland which never were too big beyond their direct region but had internal characteristics making them interesting enough to include
And Haiti once declared itself an empire... granted not much of an empire but still...
 
Not sure where in history it's talked about how Haiti has never been aggressive, or not expansionist? They did take control over the whole island of Hispaniola for a time literally being called the First Empire of Haiti. I think if you want to talk about the Caribbean, as it's own region, I'm sure that they would be at the top of the list as a regional power in the history of the region.
if we’re talking the Caribbean as a potential place for civ’s, I’d say Haiti, Taino, Cuba, Carib in that order
 
Wouldn't Haiti just fall into the post-colonial civs category of "civilizations" with the likes of Brazil and Australia? Civ has continuously expanded its definition of "civilization" to include whatever the devs and players find interesting to play and create at the moment, and if Haiti is deemed that we could very much see it.

I don't think we need over-arching grand categorization of historical peoples to determine potential new civs I mean this is a game not an anthropological typology of societies. I don't see how Scotland is an odd fit (aside from how they made it not very Scottish?) when Scotland is closer to the "generic" civ definition like Spain or even Norway than say the Maori or the Cree at least imo concerning how the average player would think of a "civilization"
 
the only characteristic of an empire isn’t necessarily imperialism, as well.

Something can be an empire without being expansionist.

Haiti surely falls in line with some nations in the game like Hungary or Poland which never were too big beyond their direct region but had internal characteristics making them interesting enough to include

True, it can be, but mechanically expansion/conquest that is how civ and particularly VI seem to be representing imperialism. We don't even have a "commercial empire" like Venice or anything remotely decentralized like the Huns in VI. And until we do, they de facto are not part of VI's design sensibilities.

The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was quite comfortably an empire, if not a kingdom that displayed imperialist tendencies like holding very large territory and influencing the surrounding region.

Hungary is kind of like Gaul. Both were technically part of empires (Austria-Hungary and the short-lived Gallic empire), but the iteration we have in-game mostly represents that particular subnational polity at its own individual height (with Gaul being represented by the Belgicae at their apex). Separating Hungary from Austria-Hungary, it was at its largest under Corvinus for a brief period (quite similar to Alexander and Bolivar), making it the most "imperial" Hungary ever was prior to the joining of the crowns. It's a weird, unconventional way of assembling the idea of an "empire," but for Hungary the idea of both being an actual "empire" and having a period of aggressive territorial expansion was still satisfied.

Not sure where in history it's talked about how Haiti has never been aggressive, or not expansionist? They did take control over the whole island of Hispaniola for a time literally being called the First Empire of Haiti. I think if you want to talk about the Caribbean, as it's own region, I'm sure that they would be at the top of the list as a regional power in the history of the region.

Hispaniola is not a huge island, and the First Empire (the only one that actually took the whole island) lasted for a mere fraction of even the empires established by Corvinus, Bolivar, or Alexander in their lifetimes. Even the "Gallic Empire" lasted 7 times longer. The first empire was so short-lived it could be re-termed an uprising and that wouldn't be historically incorrect; it really only gains retrospective legitimacy by the second empire lasting a tad longer. More to the point, it never spread beyond Hispaniola; it wasn't even regionally influential on Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, etc.

Haiti may have been an "empire," but unlike most empires it really wasn't a dominant power, and it didn't conquer or exert influence on neighbors beyond its own island. Now, again, I think it represents design space the game could expand into, particularly if the devs decided to experiment with even weirder tall playstyles. But VI especially seems uncomfortable with embracing tall play and still hasn't expanded its idea of "empire" that much.

I think Scotland makes the strongest argument for Haiti, because even if we can justify it as part of the British empire, and it did have a very brief period of "expansion" with its own colonization, I don't think anyone comfortably thinks of Scotland as a colonizer. So, unlike Hungary which had influence over Croatia, Bohemia, Romania, etc., and Georgia, which had influence over Armenia, Azerbaijan, etc., Scotland didn't really have much overseas power, and didn't have really any local power other than some brief power switch-ups with England. Scotland just wasn't an imperialist/expansionist kingdom. And so it feels really weird to be settling and conquering and settling city after city with a kingdom that wasn't well-known for doing either. And that is how Haiti would feel as well.

Contrast this with the Cree or Maori, who may questionably feel appropriate conquering cities, but absolutely feel at home expanding and settling territory. Or the Mapuche or Zulu, who may feel weird settling large swathes of territory, but feel totally at home conquering cities. Scotland and Haiti are the sort of civ proposals that don't have either and just don't fit the "civ" mold. And again, that doesn't mean Haiti can't find design space, but it would need to stretch beyond the typical 4X playstyle to feel like Haiti. And for a civ that can't really justify "expanding" through city-states like Hungary, Georgia, or Venice, because it wasn't really known for puppeteering surrounding territories, Haiti would need to get really weird, much weirder than the Maya or Vietnam or Portugal.

I am not saying it can't/shouldn't happen. Haiti would be great. But VI has been extremely conservative in its civ selection and design, and as the game currently stands, Haiti is a step or two weirder than the state of the game is presently at. Because it feels to me the only way to do a Haiti civ justice would be some way of representing an ideological empire rather than a territory-based empire, and so far not a single civ in the roster breaks from a very literalist, land-based, wide playstyle. Not even Scotland (which I think makes absolutely no sense for Scotland). The game would likely need to introduce Venice- or Huns-type archetypes (of which one of those could be Haiti), and so far the utter lack of tall-play civs makes me think that either: a) the devs have set themselves much stricter design limits than they did with VI, presumably to make the roster feel more consistent and balanced, or b) something about the new districts system actively thwarts attempts at more complex tall design, or c) some combination of the two, where the devs may have come up with tall civs, but couldn't justify them because they were too OP against a largely level playing field.
 
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True, it can be, but mechanically expansion/conquest that is how civ and particularly VI seem to be representing imperialism. We don't even have a "commercial empire" like Venice or anything remotely decentralized like the Huns in VI. And until we do, they de facto are not part of VI's design sensibilities.

The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was quite comfortably an empire, if not a kingdom that displayed imperialist tendencies like holding very large territory and influencing the surrounding region.

Hungary is kind of like Gaul. Both were technically part of empires (Austria-Hungary and the short-lived Gallic empire), but the iteration we have in-game mostly represents that particular subnational polity at its own individual height (with Gaul being represented by the Belgicae at their apex). Separating Hungary from Austria-Hungary, it was at its largest under Corvinus for a brief period (quite similar to Alexander and Bolivar), making it the most "imperial" Hungary ever was prior to the joining of the crowns. It's a weird, unconventional way of assembling the idea of an "empire," but for Hungary the idea of both being an actual "empire" and having a period of aggressive territorial expansion was still satisfied.



Hispaniola is not a huge island, and the First Empire (the only one that actually took the whole island) lasted for a mere fraction of even the empires established by Corvinus, Bolivar, or Alexander in their lifetimes. Even the "Gallic Empire" lasted 7 times longer. The first empire was so short-lived it could be re-termed an uprising and that wouldn't be historically incorrect; it really only gains retrospective legitimacy by the second empire lasting a tad longer. More to the point, it never spread beyond Hispaniola; it wasn't even regionally influential on Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, etc.

Haiti may have been an "empire," but unlike most empires it really wasn't a dominant power, and it didn't conquer or exert influence on neighbors beyond its own island. Now, again, I think it represents design space the game could expand into, particularly if the devs decided to experiment with even weirder tall playstyles. But VI especially seems uncomfortable with embracing tall play and still hasn't expanded its idea of "empire" that much.

I think Scotland makes the strongest argument for Haiti, because even if we can justify it as part of the British empire, and it did have a very brief period of "expansion" with its own colonization, I don't think anyone comfortably thinks of Scotland as a colonizer. So, unlike Hungary which had influence over Croatia, Bohemia, Romania, etc., and Georgia, which had influence over Armenia, Azerbaijan, etc., Scotland didn't really have much overseas power, and didn't have really any local power other than some brief power switch-ups with England. Scotland just wasn't an imperialist/expansionist kingdom. And so it feels really weird to be settling and conquering and settling city after city with a kingdom that wasn't well-known for doing either. And that is how Haiti would feel as well.

Contrast this with the Cree or Maori, who may questionably feel appropriate conquering cities, but absolutely feel at home expanding and settling territory. Or the Mapuche or Zulu, who may feel weird settling large swathes of territory, but feel totally at home conquering cities. Scotland and Haiti are the sort of civ proposals that don't have either and just don't fit the "civ" mold. And again, that doesn't mean Haiti can't find design space, but it would need to stretch beyond the typical 4X playstyle to feel like Haiti. And for a civ that can't really justify "expanding" through city-states like Hungary, Georgia, or Venice, because it wasn't really known for puppeteering surrounding territories, Haiti would need to get really weird, much weirder than the Maya or Vietnam or Portugal.

I am not saying it can't/shouldn't happen. Haiti would be great. But VI has been extremely conservative in its civ selection and design, and as the game currently stands, Haiti is a step or two weirder than the state of the game is presently at. Because it feels to me the only way to do a Haiti civ justice would be some way of representing an ideological empire rather than a territory-based empire, and so far not a single civ in the roster breaks from a very literalist, land-based, wide playstyle. Not even Scotland (which I think makes absolutely no sense for Scotland). The game would likely need to introduce Venice- or Huns-type archetypes (of which one of those could be Haiti), and so far the utter lack of tall-play civs makes me think that either: a) the devs have set themselves much stricter design limits than they did with VI, presumably to make the roster feel more consistent and balanced, or b) something about the new districts system actively thwarts attempts at more complex tall design, or c) some combination of the two, where the devs may have come up with tall civs, but couldn't justify them because they were too OP against a largely level playing field.
empire != expansionist/imperialist

wide != conquering

geographically small =! tall play is mandatory
 
the only characteristic of an empire isn’t necessarily imperialism, as well.

Something can be an empire without being expansionist.

Haiti surely falls in line with some nations in the game like Hungary or Poland which never were too big beyond their direct region but had internal characteristics making them interesting enough to include
What do you mean by direct region?
 
What do you mean by direct region?

Most Civs are chosen for being a dominant or extremely influential power within that region.

Going by these basic criteria, we have a good amount of possible Civs remaining.

They keep mentioning “this season” so we can assume that means they plan to do more.

Obvious locations are the large swathes that remain unrepresented so far.

Firstly, we can touch upon the currently Descended Civs for the first time since Civ 3 (interestingly, these 3 Civs were the final additions in Civ V)
• Medieval Italy (Genoa is mentioned in the game files) — filling the Venice slot
• the Morocco slot (anything Berber / Maghrebi)
• the Shoshone slot (Cree seem to fit in for the Haudenosaunee & Lakota)

I simply mention them due to them falling under the basic criteria I mentioned. This doesn’t require them to necessarily be large (thus Haiti would technically have a shot, since Venice existed)

Regions up for grabs can also be temporal: Teutons / Holy Roman, Franks, Rome, and Greece for Germany, France, Italy, Byzantium — respectively.
• Mughals
• Soviet Union (obviously controversial)

That leaves some major areas for speculation:

• Bagan / Myanmar (though with the current affairs, that might be less feasible)
• Yoruba / Hausa / Ashanti / Igbo
• Hittites (featured prominently in 4X historical games, though a VA would be tricky)
• Kievan Rus
• Bohemia
• Serbia (most likely 14th Century under Stefan Dušan, also had an Empire)
• Tibet (toooooooo controversial, but still had an Empire)

Candidates for Ascended Civs (Kongo, Australia, Canada, Gran Colombia, Vietnam) all previously featured City States from *at least* 2 different cities. Possible Civs that meet this criteria of “important enough to feature on the sidelines” are:
• Switzerland / Swiss Confederacy (Geneva & Zurich)
• the Gaels / Ireland, specifically (Dublin & Armagh)
• Sri Lanka / Chola / Tamils / Sinhala (Colombo & Kandy)
• Bulgars (Sofia & Preslav)
• South Africa (Cape Town & Johannesburg — though this may or may not be a culturally insensitive move and even picking leaders could be too controversial — Nelson Mandela, for instance)
• New Zealand (Wellington & Auckland)
• Oman (Ormus & Muscat)

Smaller Civs like Inuit & Noongar & Philippines are nice wishlists, but they realistically don’t match a primary criteria for Civs shown in the series so far, but I would not be surprised if they did something similar to the Barbarian clans mode but for the friendly villages — offering unique bonuses based on whichever friendly village you came across.

Smaller Civs who *seem* to meet criteria for selection I will base on the inclusion of these Civs in Civ Colonization:
• the Apache
• the Taíno [Arawak]
• the Cherokee
• the Tupi

Possible Civs (lots of Confederations) that I’ve seen wished for that might meet this criteria (in Firaxis’s eyes):
• Cumania / Cuman—Kipchak Confederation
• Tatar Confederation
• Lithuania / Baltics / Livonia Confederation (despite being mentioned as part of Poland’s ability, Philip mentions reigning over Portugal and well...João exists, so...)
• Turan / Kushan / Timurids

— keep in mind access to VAs in a pandemic on top of some being more obscure or historically inaccessible
 
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Most Civs are chosen for being a dominant or extremely influential power within that region.

Going by these basic criteria, we have a good amount of possible Civs remaining.

They keep mentioning “this season” so we can assume that means they plan to do more.

Obvious locations are the large swathes that remain unrepresented so far.

Firstly, we can touch upon the currently Descended Civs for the first time since Civ 3
• Medieval Italy (Genoa is mentioned in the game files) — filling the Venice slot
• the Morocco slot (anything Berber / Maghrebi)
• the Shoshone slot (Cree seem to fit in for the Haudenosaunee & Lakota)

I simply mention them due to them falling under the basic criteria I mentioned. This doesn’t require them to necessarily be large (thus Haiti would technically have a shot, since Venice existed)

Regions up for grabs can also be temporal: Teutons / Holy Roman, Franks, Rome, and Greece for Germany, France, Italy, Byzantium — respectively.
• Mughals
• Soviet Union (obviously controversial)

That leaves some major areas for speculation:

• Bagan / Myanmar (though with the current affairs, that might be less feasible)
• Yoruba / Hausa / Ashanti / Igbo
• Hittites (featured prominently in 4X historical games, though a VA would be tricky)
• Kievan Rus
• Bohemia
• Serbia (most likely 14th Century under Stefan Dušan, also had an Empire)
• Tibet (toooooooo controversial, but still had an Empire)

Candidates for Ascended Civs (Kongo, Australia, Canada, Gran Colombia, Vietnam) all previously featured City States from *at least* 2 different cities. Possible Civs that meet this criteria of “important enough to feature on the sidelines” are:
• Switzerland / Swiss Confederacy (Geneva & Zurich)
• the Gaels (Dublin & Armagh)
• Sri Lanka / Chola / Tamils / Sinhala (Colombo & Kandy)
• Bulgars (Sofia & Preslav)
• South Africa (Cape Town & Johannesburg — though this may or may not be a culturally insensitive move and even picking leaders could be too controversial — Nelson Mandela, for instance)
• New Zealand (Wellington & Auckland)
• Oman (Ormus & Muscat)

Smaller Civs like Inuit & Noongar & Philippines are nice wishlists, but they realistically don’t match a primary criteria for Civs shown in the series so far, but I would not be surprised if they did something similar to the Barbarian clans mode but for the friendly villages — offering unique bonuses based on whichever friendly village you came across.

Smaller Civs who *seem* to meet criteria for selection I will base on the inclusion of these Civs in Civ Colonization:
• the Apache
• the Taíno [Arawak]
• the Cherokee
• the Tupi

Possible Civs (lots of Confederations) that I’ve seen wished for that might meet this criteria (in Firaxis’s eyes):
• Cumania / Cuman—Kipchak Confederation
• Tatar Confederation
• Lithuania / Baltics / Livonia Confederation (despite being mentioned as part of Poland’s ability, Philip mentions reigning over Portugal and well...João exists, so...)
• Turan / Kushan / Timurids

— keep in mind access to VAs in a pandemic on top of some being more obscure or historically inaccessible
I am affraid we have reached the point where we are moving in a dark
 
Side note, it's interesting to me how in Civ - a game designed by an American company - always has France as a cultural civ given that we in the states think they're like haughty snooty art snobs but in Humankind, the French developers made themselves scientific lol. France definetely works both ways so it doesn't really matter but I do hope they break some pre-existing civ-franchise stereotyping if 7 drops or even if a returning civ comes back in a (unlikely imo) second season pass.

France works all ways. Culture civ (duh), science civ (like in Humankind), militaristic civ (France has the highest score of wars/battles won), diplomacy (the lingua franca of Europe for centuries was French), religious (the Eldest Dauther of the Church), populous (France had the biggest population of all Europe for centuries, around 20 millions for most of Middle-Ages, quite remarkable)... Because France is part of this group of civs that could fit pretty much any niche. The question is: what does Firaxis wants to do with them? Historically, France always has been the culture civ, just like Germany always have been more production/warfare, Spain is the religious with a colonization/exploration side, England is the maritime one, Babylon is scientific, India is tied with religion and population... The only "official" wildcard of the main roster, I would say, is America, which can go pretty much any direction (all-rounder in 4, expansionnist in 5, cultural in 6).


As for Austria and Maria-Theresa: as a fan of operas and austrian culture (Vienna will probably be the city for my retirement), I'd love them and they probably be my favourite civ. Culture, diplomacy, music: all things that I love IRL and I want to see in the game.
But Central Europe is already crammed, and if we have to have a cultural/diplomatic civ, I'd much prefer Italy/an Italian republic. Let's be honest, Italians as a civilization (so not reduced to Venice or Genoa) and Austria under Maria Theresa are just too similar: music, culture, diplomacy (add "trade" for Italy). Europe is already filled up to the nose, and if we had to have another European civ, I'd prefer Italy. And if we have to have two European civs, Austria+Italy would just feel as if they added (mechanically speaking) Portugal and Spain in the same update and/or DLC. Both in the game? Why not. Both at the same time? It would feel like over indulgence.
Plus, as I desperatly want Italy (under any form), if we have to have a second European civ, looking to the East would be much preferable. Bulgaria is asked a lot and I see them as a solid contender.
 
What do you mean by direct region?
nations which exerted their influence and power mostly in the area directly surrounding their land.

Haiti never exerted its influence beyond hispaniola itself: they controlled the whole island until the eastern half rebelled and was subsequently taken over by Spain, but nonetheless would be a great choice for civ, especially if the leader choice is Touissant L’Overture
 
True, it can be, but mechanically expansion/conquest that is how civ and particularly VI seem to be representing imperialism. We don't even have a "commercial empire" like Venice or anything remotely decentralized like the Huns in VI. And until we do, they de facto are not part of VI's design sensibilities.

The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was quite comfortably an empire, if not a kingdom that displayed imperialist tendencies like holding very large territory and influencing the surrounding region.

Hungary is kind of like Gaul. Both were technically part of empires (Austria-Hungary and the short-lived Gallic empire), but the iteration we have in-game mostly represents that particular subnational polity at its own individual height (with Gaul being represented by the Belgicae at their apex). Separating Hungary from Austria-Hungary, it was at its largest under Corvinus for a brief period (quite similar to Alexander and Bolivar), making it the most "imperial" Hungary ever was prior to the joining of the crowns. It's a weird, unconventional way of assembling the idea of an "empire," but for Hungary the idea of both being an actual "empire" and having a period of aggressive territorial expansion was still satisfied.



Hispaniola is not a huge island, and the First Empire (the only one that actually took the whole island) lasted for a mere fraction of even the empires established by Corvinus, Bolivar, or Alexander in their lifetimes. Even the "Gallic Empire" lasted 7 times longer. The first empire was so short-lived it could be re-termed an uprising and that wouldn't be historically incorrect; it really only gains retrospective legitimacy by the second empire lasting a tad longer. More to the point, it never spread beyond Hispaniola; it wasn't even regionally influential on Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, etc.

Haiti may have been an "empire," but unlike most empires it really wasn't a dominant power, and it didn't conquer or exert influence on neighbors beyond its own island. Now, again, I think it represents design space the game could expand into, particularly if the devs decided to experiment with even weirder tall playstyles. But VI especially seems uncomfortable with embracing tall play and still hasn't expanded its idea of "empire" that much.

I think Scotland makes the strongest argument for Haiti, because even if we can justify it as part of the British empire, and it did have a very brief period of "expansion" with its own colonization, I don't think anyone comfortably thinks of Scotland as a colonizer. So, unlike Hungary which had influence over Croatia, Bohemia, Romania, etc., and Georgia, which had influence over Armenia, Azerbaijan, etc., Scotland didn't really have much overseas power, and didn't have really any local power other than some brief power switch-ups with England. Scotland just wasn't an imperialist/expansionist kingdom. And so it feels really weird to be settling and conquering and settling city after city with a kingdom that wasn't well-known for doing either. And that is how Haiti would feel as well.

Contrast this with the Cree or Maori, who may questionably feel appropriate conquering cities, but absolutely feel at home expanding and settling territory. Or the Mapuche or Zulu, who may feel weird settling large swathes of territory, but feel totally at home conquering cities. Scotland and Haiti are the sort of civ proposals that don't have either and just don't fit the "civ" mold. And again, that doesn't mean Haiti can't find design space, but it would need to stretch beyond the typical 4X playstyle to feel like Haiti. And for a civ that can't really justify "expanding" through city-states like Hungary, Georgia, or Venice, because it wasn't really known for puppeteering surrounding territories, Haiti would need to get really weird, much weirder than the Maya or Vietnam or Portugal.

I am not saying it can't/shouldn't happen. Haiti would be great. But VI has been extremely conservative in its civ selection and design, and as the game currently stands, Haiti is a step or two weirder than the state of the game is presently at. Because it feels to me the only way to do a Haiti civ justice would be some way of representing an ideological empire rather than a territory-based empire, and so far not a single civ in the roster breaks from a very literalist, land-based, wide playstyle. Not even Scotland (which I think makes absolutely no sense for Scotland). The game would likely need to introduce Venice- or Huns-type archetypes (of which one of those could be Haiti), and so far the utter lack of tall-play civs makes me think that either: a) the devs have set themselves much stricter design limits than they did with VI, presumably to make the roster feel more consistent and balanced, or b) something about the new districts system actively thwarts attempts at more complex tall design, or c) some combination of the two, where the devs may have come up with tall civs, but couldn't justify them because they were too OP against a largely level playing field.
I still think Haiti fits the mold of a 4X game more than the Inuit, if you want to go off of the criteria of being an “empire”, as the Inuit definitely expanded but never really conquered anybody or fought other people to expand into their territory.

As for Austria and Maria-Theresa: as a fan of operas and austrian culture (Vienna will probably be the city for my retirement), I'd love them and they probably be my favourite civ. Culture, diplomacy, music: all things that I love IRL and I want to see in the game.
But Central Europe is already crammed, and if we have to have a cultural/diplomatic civ, I'd much prefer Italy/an Italian republic. Let's be honest, Italians as a civilization (so not reduced to Venice or Genoa) and Austria under Maria Theresa are just too similar: music, culture, diplomacy (add "trade" for Italy). Europe is already filled up to the nose, and if we had to have another European civ, I'd prefer Italy. And if we have to have two European civs, Austria+Italy would just feel as if they added (mechanically speaking) Portugal and Spain in the same update and/or DLC. Both in the game? Why not. Both at the same time? It would feel like over indulgence.
Plus, as I desperatly want Italy (under any form), if we have to have a second European civ, looking to the East would be much preferable. Bulgaria is asked a lot and I see them as a solid contender.
I am perfectly fine with overindulging myself if that ended up being the case. :D
 
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It's probably not the case, but what if the whale and the Elephant are teasers for the first two civs of the next pass (assuming there is one, which isn't guaranteed and maybe even improbable).

Whale: Japan is one of the most infamous nations on earth when it comes to whaling, so one of the leaders would be for Japan, maybe Meiji, so we have a medieval Japanese and a Modern Japanese leader. His leader bonus would be the current Japanese civ bonus, and the Japanese civ bonus could be changed to something culture and tourism oriented.

Elephant: Could be referring to any civ that used Elephants, although the most likely would be Siam, Burma, The Mughals, or (a bit of a stretch, but I can hope) Timurids.

This is a huge stretch, but it's not impossible.
 
nations which exerted their influence and power mostly in the area directly surrounding their land.

Haiti never exerted its influence beyond hispaniola itself: they controlled the whole island until the eastern half rebelled and was subsequently taken over by Spain, but nonetheless would be a great choice for civ, especially if the leader choice is Touissant L’Overture
Ok, but sticking to this definition, Polish Commonwealh exceeded beyond its direct region.

As for Austria and Maria-Theresa: as a fan of operas and austrian culture (Vienna will probably be the city for my retirement), I'd love them and they probably be my favourite civ. Culture, diplomacy, music: all things that I love IRL and I want to see in the game.
(...)
Plus, as I desperatly want Italy (under any form), if we have to have a second European civ, looking to the East would be much preferable. Bulgaria is asked a lot and I see them as a solid contender.
And this is a good, and clear reason to demand a Civ ;)
But remember, Venice was once the capital of Opera in Europe and helped to spread it around the Old Continent, as for diplomacy they established the first embassies, so again all roads lead to Venice ;) One Civ to rule them all ;)
 
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empire != expansionist/imperialist

Empires almost always were both. But more importantly, we are talking about "empires" in the Civ VI, 4X gameplay sense, and whether a proposed civ's history syncs with an expansionist attitude.

wide != conquering

I never said it was strictly limited to conquering. Wide also includes settling. It's almost as if you didn't read my post at all.

geographically small =! tall play is mandatory

No, but how the player shapes their core empire certainly adds to ludohistorical resonance. Players look at Russia's larger city tiles or Japan's close-knit districts or Spain's colonies on other continents and think "yeah, that feels right." It's why Venice felt like Venice in V, it's a large reason why Scotland doesn't feel like Scotland in VI, and it's why a Haitian empire practically demands a tall playstyle because its imperial effect was cultural, not territorial.

Most Civs are chosen for being a dominant or extremely influential power within that region.

Going by these basic criteria, we have a good amount of possible Civs remaining.

They keep mentioning “this season” so we can assume that means they plan to do more.

Obvious locations are the large swathes that remain unrepresented so far.

Firstly, we can touch upon the currently Descended Civs for the first time since Civ 3
• Medieval Italy (Genoa is mentioned in the game files) — filling the Venice slot
• the Morocco slot (anything Berber / Maghrebi)
• the Shoshone slot (Cree seem to fit in for the Haudenosaunee & Lakota)

I simply mention them due to them falling under the basic criteria I mentioned. This doesn’t require them to necessarily be large (thus Haiti would technically have a shot, since Venice existed)

Regions up for grabs can also be temporal: Teutons / Holy Roman, Franks, Rome, and Greece for Germany, France, Italy, Byzantium — respectively.
• Mughals
• Soviet Union (obviously controversial)

That leaves some major areas for speculation:

• Bagan / Myanmar (though with the current affairs, that might be less feasible)
• Yoruba / Hausa / Ashanti / Igbo
• Hittites (featured prominently in 4X historical games, though a VA would be tricky)
• Kievan Rus
• Bohemia
• Serbia (most likely 14th Century under Stefan Dušan, also had an Empire)
• Tibet (toooooooo controversial, but still had an Empire)

Candidates for Ascended Civs (Kongo, Australia, Canada, Gran Colombia, Vietnam) all previously featured City States from *at least* 2 different cities. Possible Civs that meet this criteria of “important enough to feature on the sidelines” are:
• Switzerland / Swiss Confederacy (Geneva & Zurich)
• the Gaels (Dublin & Armagh)
• Sri Lanka / Chola / Tamils / Sinhala (Colombo & Kandy)
• Bulgars (Sofia & Preslav)
• South Africa (Cape Town & Johannesburg — though this may or may not be a culturally insensitive move and even picking leaders could be too controversial — Nelson Mandela, for instance)
• New Zealand (Wellington & Auckland)
• Oman (Ormus & Muscat)

Smaller Civs like Inuit & Noongar & Philippines are nice wishlists, but they realistically don’t match a primary criteria for Civs shown in the series so far, but I would not be surprised if they did something similar to the Barbarian clans mode but for the friendly villages — offering unique bonuses based on whichever friendly village you came across.

Smaller Civs who *seem* to meet criteria for selection I will base on the inclusion of these Civs in Civ Colonization:
• the Apache
• the Taíno [Arawak]
• the Cherokee
• the Tupi

Possible Civs (lots of Confederations) that I’ve seen wished for that might meet this criteria (in Firaxis’s eyes):
• Cumania / Cuman—Kipchak Confederation
• Tatar Confederation
• Lithuania / Baltics / Livonia Confederation (despite being mentioned as part of Poland’s ability, Philip mentions reigning over Portugal and well...João exists, so...)
• Turan / Kushan / Timurids

— keep in mind access to VAs in a pandemic on top of some being more obscure or historically inaccessible

While I agree that Haiti "has a shot," I still generally disagree with the unsaid assumption that VI's overall design sensibility is unchanged from V, which had Venice, and could accommodate Haiti. So far the "smallest" civ we have is the Maya, and that is nowhere near the level of tall play of Venice. VI seems to have overall moved every civ toward having a higher city count (a change which I feel was unnecessarily limiting), and until we see some number crunching to accommodate truly tall civs (Khmer may be a start?) I see no reason to believe that Venice or Haiti can exist in VI. Much as I wish that were not the case, because as this discussion reveals, VI has been extremely restrained in its civ designs and there exists a lot of untapped design space.

I disagree with your temporal regions on the same basis: outside of the usual massive civs like Ottomans/Byzantium and Macedon/Persia, we haven't seen any geographic overlap. And if there was substantial political/cultural continuation, civs have tended to be just blobbed together (see Germany/HRE, Angevin empire (Norman England and Francia with England and France), Maurya and India, Silla and Goryeo, Qin and Yuan, etc. etc.). I think based on that trend, the Mughals would be more likely lumped in as a third Indian leader, and the USSR as a second Russian leader. I even think the trend is so strong that Kievan Rus' could end up being a Russian leader.

I think your "speculation" areas are all fairly unlikely. Much as I want Burma, I do acknowledge current political affairs might be preventing inclusion. And the rest all feel like city-states or alternate leaders. As for the "ascended" civs, we technically already have several in Scotland (the Gaels) and the Maori (New Zealand); I think this hits on several reasonable civs we could hope for: Bulgaria, Oman, Chola. I even think Switzerland is a dark horse option, even though I would prefer it remain a city-state (as should have Belgium...).
 
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I do feel like the Inuit are less likely now that Canada's ability now applies to snow, if they wanted a snow civ, they wouldn't have given Canada snow related abilities. I really do think that if there was another NA civ, it would be PNW.
Anyways, I haven't seen anyone mention Elizabeth of Russia, although she is too closely related to Peter, I do think she could make a good candidate for Civ 7, I mean she almost wiped Prussia off the map as a great power.
 
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