[RD] Colin Kaepernick

[caketastydelish]

Also I don't really care if Osweiler is laughing at us. He's not paid to be better than us, he's paid to be better than other NFL players. I'm better at my job than he is at his so that's all I really need tbh

I would take the opportunity to "be paid to be better than other NFL players" if given to me. Wouldn't you?

If there's one town that has an excuse not to sign Kaepernick, it's Miami with its enormous community of Cubans and Cuban exiles. I can't tell you not to be offended about Kapernick praising Castro's Cuba if you literally risked your life to escape it because it was so bad.

It's important to remember that Kaepernick is coming from San Francisco, a town filled with pot smoking hipster liberals who read Karl Marx, have liberal arts degrees, and have no understanding of how the real world works. He's been brainwashed.

 

[Berzerker]

his mind is not for rent to any god or government

 

[caketastydelish]

That's not for you to decide.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

edit: this was a response to Themeinteam

How are we defining "4-5 wins there"? I'm not entirely convinced the Browns will get 4 or 5 wins this season. It's a possibility, but not one you could safely count on. The Cleveland steamer brown turds will almost certainly lose all of their division games. Steelers: Do I even have to say anything? Bengals: Contrary to what the critics said, they had a great draft. They wisely invested their first round pick into a great wide receiver, thus greatly lightening the load on A.J. Green. More importantly, they got a running back that can really punch through defenses, as he's already proven. Ravens: They went 8 and 8 last year, I don't expect them to get any worse.

I also don't agree that the Osweiler thing was a good trade. I mean yes, they had tons of money they could spend. They just should have got someone better. If I had the money to buy an inflatable jacuzzi and fill it with strippers and do things that could put me in long term danger, that wouldn't necessarily be a wise investment even if the money is easily there.

~4 wins is a reasonable average baseline based on the talent pool there, but in a 16 game season you can get a lot of variance.

DVOA actually had someone behind the Browns last season, at least for some of it. I'd guess that 49ers, Jets, and quite possibly Bears are worse overall than Browns this year. It's also far from a lock that they go 0-6 division...typically with teams that know each other pretty well you'll get the occasional choke. Don't forget that even last season Baltimore was losing by 20 at one point in game 2, and Pittsburgh needed overtime to win in week 17 (a division game where they rest starters could happen this season too, I don't expect KC/Oakland to repeat 12 wins but seeding could be settled for the AFC North winner).

The Osweiler trade is as close to an objectively good trade as you can get. Draft value is a major advantage in the NFL, and if he's bad enough that he can't earn a roster spot they can cut him and eat the dead money...it's STILL worth the trade (the penalty will be gone before they can burn up their cap on anything useful). There just wasn't anybody in FA worth the kind of price tag where they'd be in cap trouble.

If there's one town that has an excuse not to sign Kaepernick, it's Miami with its enormous community of Cubans and Cuban exiles. I can't tell you not to be offended about Kapernick praising Castro's Cuba if you literally risked your life to escape it because it was so bad.

I don't disagree, but the narrative over that would be completely bonkers, especially if here were to then somehow play well as a starter. As you say though they're well-justified in how they feel.

Edit: there are very few teams where I'd pick him up as a starter. Jacksonville comes to mind (Bortles is one of the few starters with objectively + significantly worse stats, and Henne is not good either). Houston could at least consider him also, as could the Jets. After that, we're in backup territory...but there's lots of teams where from a skill perspective that would make sense.

That's all assuming he'd take a backup contract/situation.

 

[metalhead]

Honestly I kind of wish we got him as a backup. Not because he's good but because preseason games have proven that Austin Davis is terrible. Kaep might be better than that. Still, Metalhead is wrong as usual.

You, of course, give no reasoning for your opinion. All you have to do is look at the stats; Kaepernick was 17th in passer rating last year, among 30 that qualify for ranking. Siemian was 23rd. Bortles 26th. Osweiler 29th. Most impressively, Kaep does what virtually all crappy, and some supposedly decent QBs can't - take care of the football. He had the 6th best INT% of all qualifying QBs. I doubt a stat matters more, especially for a backup, than not throwing picks. And that's not for a lack of throwing the ball, either, as he managed a fairly decent 16 TD passes in 10 starts.

Now you tell me if Blake Bortles is ever going to throw 1.6 TD passes and 0.4 INTs per game. If you're following along at home, that comes out to 25 TDs and 6 INTs over an entire season. And it isn't like they just had him running every play, either - he threw the ball 30+ times per game. I have a feeling you'd find a non-trivial number of Bengals and Lions fans who would take a QB with Kaep's resume over their current "franchise" QB if they didn't know it belonged to Colin Kaepernick.

Kaep was average or above average in every statistical category you can use to measure a QB as a starter in 2016. Passer rating. QBR. AY/A. And has a stellar TD/INT ratio and very few INTs overall. The others I listed, uh, are not, and a few are below average or at the bottom in every single one. You THINK Kaep is bad, but that's all you are basing your opinion on.

You obviously haven't actually looked at the numbers. I know, because I had simply assumed he was terrible, too, until I did. Turns out, he's an average starter. Which means he is significantly better than the QBs out on the tail of the bell curve.

 

[metatron]

All better QB than CK. They can manage the offense the team runs. Kaepernick cannot.

J

Look, to me American "Football" is some insane activity erroneously deemed a sport that mostly obese people on the other side of the planet engage in.
So i don't know the first thing about it, and i don't care.
But i trust some good number-crunshing.
And people have actually done that:

He's an ok QB. And he's better than Griffin.
So there's an ulterior motive here.
You are making the wrong case on what that motive is.
It's not about some pretend-o-patriot people dropping out of a team's fanbase. It's about social justice types joining it.
If i was a team manager i'd be mortified at that prospect, never mind my personal politics.
As soon as anyone comes up with a way to sign CK while summarily showing the social justice left both middle fingers and keep them the hell away from the team, he will be signed.
So what we are really waiting for is to see if such a feet is possible.

 

[Tristan_C]

He's an ok QB. And he's better than Griffin.
So there's an ulterior motive here.
You are making the wrong case on what that motive is.
It's not about some pretend-o-patriot people dropping out of a team's fanbase. It's about social justice types joining it.
If i was a team manager i'd be mortified at that prospect, never mind my personal politics.
As soon as anyone comes up with a way to sign CK while summarily showing the social justice left both middle fingers and keep them the hell away from the team, he will be signed.
So what we are really waiting for is to see if such a feet is possible.

Like you I know approximately jack-all about football, but on the business side, I doubt the league is being antagonistic.

Each league sells facets of US culture. There are stark differences in the culture within US pro basketball, NASCAR, football, baseball, golf, etc. The purpose of this culture being fostered within a sports league is to form an emotional connection with the fanbase. It attaches the energy of the competition and spectacle with an external, "real-world" source of passion. Patriotism is useful since it is widespread and works exactly the same as team loyalty. It generates emotional bonds between fans, players, and the league to behold all sides and elements temporarily engaged together in the "sportsmanlike conduct" of singing the national anthem, or whatever.

Letting players disengage from that in turn disengages the fans from the players. Very few will, as you say, "drop out of the fanbase," but having emotionally-disengaged fans is not something the league wants. It's worth hundreds of millions. Advertisers pay to piggyback on the attention and good feelings devoted to the game.

 

[Light Cleric]

You obviously haven't actually looked at the numbers. I know, because I had simply assumed he was terrible, too, until I did. Turns out, he's an average starter. Which means he is significantly better than the QBs out on the tail of the bell curve.

I linked to the more advanced metrics (I'll link them again) which actually tell the whole story rather than archaic stats like QB Rating(not to be confused with QBR) and explained why even some of this "basic" stats like completion percentage are not very good. Now, if you want to tell the good folks at FootballOutsiders they didn't look at the numbers, then you're welcome to do so, but I suspect they did. Unfortunately ProFootballFocus has mostly paywalled stuff so their full 2016 QB rankings were not accessible, but what they did release was not flattering.

Interception percentage is important but also overstated; as I've seen a few former quarterbacks explain when talking about Nick Foles a few years ago, a QB can very easily just not throw interceptions by not taking risks, but taking risks is part of what you have to do. That's why Nick Foles had a insane looking 0.6% interception rate to go with 27 TD / 2 INTs in 2013...and is now fighting for his roster spot after being cut by multiple teams. There was plenty of stuff in his play (taking sacks, throwing it away rather than taking risks) that you won't get if you just look at the basic stats.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

You, of course, give no reasoning for your opinion. All you have to do is look at the stats; Kaepernick was 17th in passer rating last year, among 30 that qualify for ranking. Siemian was 23rd. Bortles 26th. Osweiler 29th. Most impressively, Kaep does what virtually all crappy, and some supposedly decent QBs can't - take care of the football. He had the 6th best INT% of all qualifying QBs. I doubt a stat matters more, especially for a backup, than not throwing picks. And that's not for a lack of throwing the ball, either, as he managed a fairly decent 16 TD passes in 10 starts.

Now you tell me if Blake Bortles is ever going to throw 1.6 TD passes and 0.4 INTs per game. If you're following along at home, that comes out to 25 TDs and 6 INTs over an entire season. And it isn't like they just had him running every play, either - he threw the ball 30+ times per game. I have a feeling you'd find a non-trivial number of Bengals and Lions fans who would take a QB with Kaep's resume over their current "franchise" QB if they didn't know it belonged to Colin Kaepernick.

Kaep was average or above average in every statistical category you can use to measure a QB as a starter in 2016. Passer rating. QBR. AY/A. And has a stellar TD/INT ratio and very few INTs overall. The others I listed, uh, are not, and a few are below average or at the bottom in every single one. You THINK Kaep is bad, but that's all you are basing your opinion on.

You obviously haven't actually looked at the numbers. I know, because I had simply assumed he was terrible, too, until I did. Turns out, he's an average starter. Which means he is significantly better than the QBs out on the tail of the bell curve.

He is way ahead of replacement level and backups, but he's easily below average (for a starter) by QBR. There are a number of teams with bad QBs that could upgrade using him as a starter, but that's indicative of a bad situation.

In contrast, he's better than all but a tiny fraction of backups, which means there are dozens of players inferior to his play that have jobs. The only way this makes sense in football terms is if they are taking inferior contracts to Kaep's asking price. I really don't want to rule that out though, because I haven't seen information on it and it's crucial.

I linked to the more advanced metrics

Yes you did, and I mentioned them too. Metalhead is overselling him, but many people in this thread are under-selling. He's 23rd in QBR based on those metrics. This grades him as a below-average starter, not a roster-bubble player or unsigned FA. Starter for terrible team or high-quality backup are the expected baselines for the stats he puts up. He is consistently beating out the true cellar of starters and the occasional average starter who had a down season, per these metrics.

Compare his treatment to Glennon's, who has done nothing in any metric, including advanced ones, to allow a conclusion he's actually better. Same goes for McCown, Osweiler, Tannehill, Bortles, or even Sam Bradford.

Based on a purely statistical basis, even the advanced metrics show evidence Kaep's on par or better than these players. They are all solidly mediocre or worse by the standards of a starting NFL QB, but all of them found jobs quickly and at decent contract rates. The case that Kaep's being held out for non-football related reasons is quite strong, DESPITE accepting that his advanced metrics show a below-average starter, unless he is asking for higher value than this tier.

 

[metalhead]

If you look down at the QB rushing advanced metrics, he's #1 in value, and it isn't clear how those metrics are supposed to work together, so I don't know that those metrics are especially useful for judging him against the dregs of the league. If you combine them he appears to be about a replacement-level QB, but plenty of qualifying starters are below-replacement level, so I don't know that these numbers refute my conclusion that he is an average starter. Perhaps he hits the bell curve where it starts to seriously slope towards the tail, but there is still the whole tail hanging out there.

I don't like QBR because they don't tell you how it's calculated.

I may be over-selling him a tad, but our conclusions are largely the same - there are at least a half-dozen starting QBs that Kaepernick performed unequivocally better than last season. He is better than virtually all backups, which doesn't mean he would be a better fit than every current backup, but it does mean that he should have a job. Maybe he has ruled out signing as a back-up, which would be a very bad career move but is possible. That still doesn't justify that he didn't even get a shot at a starting gig.

 

[Light Cleric]

Yes you did, and I mentioned them too. Metalhead is overselling him, but many people in this thread are under-selling. He's 23rd in QBR based on those metrics. This grades him as a below-average starter, not a roster-bubble player or unsigned FA. Starter for terrible team or high-quality backup are the expected baselines for the stats he puts up. He is consistently beating out the true cellar of starters and the occasional average starter who had a down season, per these metrics.

Compare his treatment to Glennon's, who has done nothing in any metric, including advanced ones, to allow a conclusion he's actually better. Same goes for McCown, Osweiler, Tannehill, Bortles, or even Sam Bradford.

Based on a purely statistical basis, even the advanced metrics show evidence Kaep's on par or better than these players. They are all solidly mediocre or worse by the standards of a starting NFL QB, but all of them found jobs quickly and at decent contract rates. The case that Kaep's being held out for non-football related reasons is quite strong, DESPITE accepting that his advanced metrics show a below-average starter, unless he is asking for higher value than this tier.

Yeah, I agree with all that. Glennon was one of those guys who got the job because he "looked the part" (aka he has the physical attributes but sucks at actual QB) and the Bears are kinda dumb. I mentioned when someone else brought up McCown etc that those guys are atrocious and he's better than they are. The issue I see is the Jets are intentionally being bad so they can destroy Sam Darnold's career in 2018, the Browns/Texans/Bears all just went and grabbed a QB in the draft, and the Vikings have Bridgewater coming back(although he will likely literally die behind that o-line) so there's just not a lot of destinations for him to actually start. Jacksonville works, but there's not much else. If he wants to be a backup, he really should be. But does he? That's why I brought up the Seattle example. Would they, of all teams, really be averse to controversy?

 

[caketastydelish]

That's why I brought up the Seattle example. Would they, of all teams, really be averse to controversy?

Yes. As someone keeping a close eye I can tell you the vast majority of Seattle's players either don't mind Kaepernicks position or openly support it. There'd be no locker room friction. Seattle is also a very left wing city so there wouldn't be much backlash from the fan base either. Even less so considering he would be the backup rather than the starter. They said they didn't sign him "because he should be a starter" but everyone knows that's not the real reason. Getting someone "that should be a starter" as your backup is a great deal. It's even more troubling because Kaepernick's attributes work well in Seattle's offensive scheme. The only guess I can come up with is that Kaepernick asked for more money than they thought a backup is worth. If I'm right about that, Kaep probably regrets his decision now. Any job is better than no job. And this current Seattle team has a strong possibility to win the Super Bowl this year. Being on a Super Bowl winning team, even as the backup QB, says something. And since the only legitimately weak part of our team is the O-line, there is a strong possibility of Wilson getting injured. That would have given Kaep a chance to shine. He would have had a defense to keep him in the game, a team that is stacked at the running back position, and wide receivers that are highly underrated + Jimmy Graham. "Below average QB with a great athletic ability" would be legit in Seattle because their style of offense demands a dual-threat QB.


That said, I don't think Kaep should be a starter.

Trevor Siemian. Blake Bortles. Brian Hoyer. Brock Osweiler. Mike Glennon. Josh McCown.

Siemian, Bortles, and Hoyer are already very familiar with the offensive schemes that they run. None of them will be long term solutions, but nobody on earth sees Kaepernick as a long term solution either.

You have legitimacy with Mike Glennon but Chicago already has a long term solution that they aren't comfortable using right away. Might as well suck for better draft picks, I guess. One problem with Kaepernick is you know what you're buying, and what you're buying is not very good. Kaepernick can only be good if he's on a team that is loaded. That's how he "performed well" with the 49ers for two seasons. The offensive scheme in Chicago is quite a bit different than what Kaepernick seems to prefer.

Osweiler definitely sucks but the same applies in Cleveland, if not even more so. Kizer has potential to be their man, and even if he doesn't, they can get someone from next years draft.

Kaep might be better than McCown, but a similar thing applies. There's also the fact that the Jets are so bad right now that they're going to be weak almost no matter who the QB is. I mean yes, their QB position is bad, but so is everything else. That's not a job to envy. Then there's also the possibility that again, the Jets would only get Kaep for a very cheap contract and Kaep wants more money.

Colin Kaepernick is, for the vast majority of teams, only worth if you sign him for cheap. He's gotten used to a contract giving him for more than he's worth, and it may have spoiled him.

 

[onejayhawk]

Look, to me American "Football" is some insane activity erroneously deemed a sport that mostly obese people on the other side of the planet engage in.
So i don't know the first thing about it, and i don't care.
But i trust some good number-crunshing.
And people have actually done that:

He's an ok QB. And he's better than Griffin.
So there's an ulterior motive here.
You are making the wrong case on what that motive is.
It's not about some pretend-o-patriot people dropping out of a team's fanbase. It's about social justice types joining it.
If i was a team manager i'd be mortified at that prospect, never mind my personal politics.
As soon as anyone comes up with a way to sign CK while summarily showing the social justice left both middle fingers and keep them the hell away from the team, he will be signed.
So what we are really waiting for is to see if such a feet is possible.

Faulty logic. What you have is a player whose numbers are fairly good, but not the team's offensive numbers. It has been called the prima donna effect. He does not run the team concept effectively and he's not good enough to do it alone. More than one team has attempted to coach him past that hurdle. He has refused instruction in a disrespectful manner and gone out of his way to insult the fans, creating a PR headache. So, you have a player of dubious value, who is known to be disruptive. There is not a coach out that that wants that. He isn't good enough to tolerate the grief.

J

 

[metalhead]

Siemian, Bortles, and Hoyer are already very familiar with the offensive schemes that they run. None of them will be long term solutions, but nobody on earth sees Kaepernick as a long term solution either.

You have legitimacy with Mike Glennon but Chicago already has a long term solution that they aren't comfortable using right away. Might as well suck for better draft picks, I guess. One problem with Kaepernick is you know what you're buying, and what you're buying is not very good. Kaepernick can only be good if he's on a team that is loaded. That's how he "performed well" with the 49ers for two seasons. The offensive scheme in Chicago is quite a bit different than what Kaepernick seems to prefer.

Osweiler definitely sucks but the same applies in Cleveland, if not even more so. Kizer has potential to be their man, and even if he doesn't, they can get someone from next years draft.

Kaep might be better than McCown, but a similar thing applies. There's also the fact that the Jets are so bad right now that they're going to be weak almost no matter who the QB is. I mean yes, their QB position is bad, but so is everything else. That's not a job to envy. Then there's also the possibility that again, the Jets would only get Kaep for a very cheap contract and Kaep wants more money.

Colin Kaepernick is, for the vast majority of teams, only worth if you sign him for cheap. He's gotten used to a contract giving him for more than he's worth, and it may have spoiled him.

If I'm a Broncos fan, I am incensed that they brought back Siemian and didn't give Kaepernick a shot. That is a team that is still pretty loaded on D. They won a Super Bowl without a QB for crying out loud. Out of all the teams and QBs, this one is by far the stupidest one to have passed on bringing him in. What is the harm in changing up the offensive scheme for a year or two if you aren't bringing along your QB of the future? This is also the kind of place where Kaep's low INT% makes him valuable - if you're winning with D, you don't need your QB out there taking a ton of risks.

Jacksonville is not loaded at all, but they're currently deciding between Blake Bortles and Chad Henne! Kaepernick performed average on a terrible team last year. Neither Bortles nor Henne is capable of giving you an average performance under any circumstances, let alone the difficult ones any QB is going to face in Jacksonville. Kaep may not win you many more games, but at least he'll bring some excitement, not the existential dread a Jags fan must feel at the prospect of watching Blake Bortles for another season. And Kaep will sell a lot of jerseys.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

Faulty logic. What you have is a player whose numbers are fairly good, but not the team's offensive numbers. It has been called the prima donna effect. He does not run the team concept effectively and he's not good enough to do it alone. More than one team has attempted to coach him past that hurdle. He has refused instruction in a disrespectful manner and gone out of his way to insult the fans, creating a PR headache. So, you have a player of dubious value, who is known to be disruptive. There is not a coach out that that wants that. He isn't good enough to tolerate the grief.

J

Actually, the most reasonable conclusion is that he played on a team that was pretty lacking in talent at most positions. That includes his own, but far from limited to it. SF nose dived hard nearly across the board since its superbowl appearance. Kaep did prove he was better than Blaine Gabbert in the context of that team, which tells us almost nothing.

If I'm a Broncos fan, I am incensed that they brought back Siemian and didn't give Kaepernick a shot.

Kaep is older, likely more expensive (a non-trivial consideration), and was nearly identical to Siemian by QBR last season. Completion percentage, value per play, and so forth are all way too close. I doubt Kaep would play for the money Denver can get away with paying Siemian right now, and Broncos are probably still hoping Lynch can win the job/improve enough.

When you have two guys ~same tier of mediocre, the cheaper/younger one makes sense.

 

[metalhead]

By passing QBR. When you account for rushing, Kaepernick clearly exceeds what Siemian is capable of. When you account for the fact that Kaep has proven he can take a good team to a Super Bowl (and almost lead them back to win it), I think that also counts for, well, more than "nothing."

At some point, particularly when you talk about the NFL, you have to take your head out of the stat book and look at what a guy has actually accomplished on the field. That isn't meaningless no matter how many arguments one wants to make to the contrary, particularly for the QB position. Look at how many statistically proficient QBs struggle to win even 1 playoff game.

It matters. Not enough to anoint a guy like Kaepernick as your savior when he clearly doesn't have that level of ability, but as a stopgap for a year or two before your playoff-level talent disappears, you could not find a better option than Kaepernick.

 

[onejayhawk]

He is not executing the team concept. This is sufficient answer.

J

 

[Commodore]

I take it OJ was innocent of the murders of Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman, then? Or are you willing to be less categorical with your statement?

Yes, he was innocent according to the courts. Since he wasn't convicted, no one has any right to call him a murderer and to do so publicly could potentially result in a slander, libel, or defamation lawsuit, and rightfully so.

 

[metalhead]

Yes, he was innocent according to the courts. Since he wasn't convicted, no one has any right to call him a murderer and to do so publicly could potentially result in a slander, libel, or defamation lawsuit, and rightfully so.

So I can't say or think anything about a person until it has been established beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law? That seems rather like speech fascism. Can I call him a wrongful-deather because of his civil liability for their deaths, or am I required to follow the criminal burden of proof?

 

[Commodore]

So I can't say or think anything about a person until it has been established beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law?

You can say whatever you want, but that doesn't mean there aren't consequences for what you say. If you publicly call someone a murderer or a rapist and they have never been convicted of those crimes, then you are slandering/defaming that person. Free speech laws, even in the US, do not protect slanderous speech.