Which could be a mistake, as western leaders realize quite well. Why?
Because Western world depends on abundant, cheap oil it possesses no more. The 'best practice' on how to obtain it is to corrupt a friendly dictator, ship him toys of choice, and get the mineral wealth of his country cheaply. Good example of this is Saudi Arabia, Niger Delta, Iraq (before Saddam became "enemy"), Iran (where CIA overthrew and imprisoned Mossadek, but it back backfired in a regime of hostile theocracy), Chile etc. The common people usually benefit very little from the wealth of their land.
Now if popular uprising spreads across the Arab countries and wins, a new govt from their ranks will probably want to invest in their own infrastructure, factories, agriculture, etc. That means more oil for domestic use, and much, much less for export. Considering today's market volatility and supply-demand tension, you can imagine what would happen to oil price.
So we can't really use the Civ model, because unlike in Civ, where Oil is only a resource needed for advanced military units, in real world, all those cute little farms, factories, hospitals, airports need it and depend on it.