MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
ThePhysicist said:Really....
In the era of Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and Micheal Moore, you think this nation is having an intellegent debate? Well, let's hope your right on this one.
Debate? Yes. Intelligent? Sometimes.
I have already stated why America has been in conservative hands for the last 25 years...it is widely understood. It was a combination reaction to the 60s, the growth of suburbia, and Barry Goldwater's organization of conservative Republicans. Their coalition was of wealthy whites, and blue collar whites fed up by civil rights and other liberal programs like abortion and banning prayer from public schools.
Many of these issues still remain. However, the republicans are also increasing their support among all miniority groups. People are starting to realize that a hand up is certainly better than a hand out.
Essentially, the Republicans own the Industrial economy, made up almost entirely of these two groups. If America was going to remain in an Industrial economy, the Republicans would be the favroites for continued control.
One thing you forget is that in an industrial economy a large portion of voting power is held by the unions. Matter of fact, I would say the unions control more votes than the wealthy whites, and almost all unions are pro-democrat. Thus in an industrial society, the Democrats should be favored, not the republicans.
But America is changing into a postindustrial, information and idea based economy. Proffesionals such as engineers, scientists, writers and moviemakers will make up the workforce. Statistics show this group increasingly votes Democratic, holding a liberal social view and a moderate economic view. Combine these voters with immigrants and minorities and the Democrats have a solid majority coaltion.
Moviemakers have pretty much always been pro-democrat. However, I daresay that america is separating itself from the hollywood elite. Whoopi Goldberg certainly didnt help Kerry with her Bush jokes. As for your other demographs, certainly those have been in place for the last 20 years or so, but the republicans are still in power.
Bush's unpopularity is enough of a catalyst to remove the republican government, which othwise would have taken years to dislodge, much like how the Democrats held on to the house 14 years longer than they should have. Of course, it will probably take 2 or three more elction cycles.
Shrug. The mans popularity is back up to around 46% and he may very well break 50% soon. I dont think he is as unpopular as you make him out to be...maybe your view is just skewed by the company you keep.
2008 is the key. A capable Democratic Candidate (e.i., not Hillary/Kerry) will win election against any Republican Candidate except possibly moderates like McCain/Giuliani. If they have a succesful administration, the conservative era will be over, and a new majority will be built.
Well, see thats the rub. I dont think there is a capable Democratic Candidate to be found out there. And it is almost a gurantee that either McCain or Giuliani will run and that will seal the deal. If we get a social moderate, but fiscally conservative guy like Giuliani in, and his administration does well, the republicans will solidfy their majority for years to come.
However, I do see a few potentials for Republicans, but they are longshots.
If the democrats offer up a weak candidate in 2008, the republicans could win in yet another 51-48 split, then move to the center on social issues. The threat here is that the Religious right would probably revolt if the GOP moves away from them, and that would be crippling.
The religious right isnt as dumb as you think they are. Given a moderate republican choice vs a liberal democrat choice I know exactly who they would vote for. They may hold their nose, but they would still vote republican.
Or, they could tap into religion in Latino Americans, who will eventually make up 1/4 of the electorate. But again, I doubt the possibility of poor minorities voting for republicans. Or, possibly, they could use terrorism as they did the cold war. If the Democrats control the whitehouse and terrorists attack again, the democrats will probably be doomed for another decade or so.
Agree, and its almost a certainty that we will be hit again, but where and how bad are the unknowns.
Of course, I have said much of this before, but no one really challenged me. If you think the situation is otherwise, I would love to hear it. But please, be specific.
I hope that was specific enough.