Farm Boy
I hope you dance
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Give it 30 and you'll be knocking on the door.
2024 Election: 2023 Edition
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
- Start date
TheCleanerDragon
Squad Leader
I predict there will be massive and unrelenting whining from whichever side loses next year. Basically the same as 2016 and 2020
Lexicus
Deity
I disagree that the number of parties is a significant determining factor in the success or failure of a parliamentary political system in general. I also specifically disagree with your diagnosis of the US political system's problems coming from having 2 major parties. I also disagree that adding more parties would have any positive effect on US politics whatsoever.
Lexicus
Deity
On the contrary, in 30 years the refugees from underwater real estate in Florida will be causing significant problems in neighboring states.
Remorseless1
Emperor
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Just look at Italy -- numerous political parties coupled with dozens of governments.
Farm Boy
I hope you dance
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Wherever "America goes to die" at that point, then.
I need to Florida Man-proof my house for when they start moving back North.
Getting back on topic, Biden will probably be okay in a rematch with Trump. It will be close either way, but Trump basically squeaked in as a dark horse and lost once everybody figured out what his deal was. Biden got elected precisely because he was a known quantity. The economy is slowing calming down after COVID and beginning of the Russia sanctions, so it would takes something big to give Trump an outright edge as opposed to a polling error squeak.
DeSantis is far more dangerous in the general because he can utilize Trump's culture war rhetoric while competently pulling the levers of government to get what he wants, at least as far as I can see. Whether he can actually primary Trump is a different question.
Getting back on topic, Biden will probably be okay in a rematch with Trump. It will be close either way, but Trump basically squeaked in as a dark horse and lost once everybody figured out what his deal was. Biden got elected precisely because he was a known quantity. The economy is slowing calming down after COVID and beginning of the Russia sanctions, so it would takes something big to give Trump an outright edge as opposed to a polling error squeak.
DeSantis is far more dangerous in the general because he can utilize Trump's culture war rhetoric while competently pulling the levers of government to get what he wants, at least as far as I can see. Whether he can actually primary Trump is a different question.
Lexicus
Deity
I don't know if I agree with that. I mean, I'm more afraid of him winning than Trump winning but my gut tells me that some fraction of Trump's voters are Trump voters, and won't vote for an "establishment" Republican, particularly if Trump is somehow seen to be getting "screwed out" of the nomination (a la the people still mad about Bernie losing in 2020).
DeSantis is creating a showcase for the the country he envisions. The more he does in Florida now, the clearer his vision will be for voters in 2024. I think it is a vision that is not in keeping with moderate Republicans and suburban housewives.
Gori the Grey
The Poster
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1/3, according to a recent poll cited about a week ago on some MSNBC commentary programs. Wish I could be more specific.
Does that mean they won't vote for anyone else, if Trump is out of the picture? Don't know. Don't know if the poll question was phrased that way.
But they "self identify as Trump voters specifically, not Republicans"
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Lexicus
Deity
That's the other thing. As I see it, any non-Trump candidate has to try to peel off some Democrats to have a hope of matching Trump's numbers in a general election.
Can DeSantis do that? I have doubts.
"if Trump is out of the picture" - how far out? Because if Trump loses the primary, I can't imagine him being silent and/or supporting the Republican nominee that beat him. And even if he supports that nominee, he's going to continuously tell them what to do (via Twitter) and they're going to get wedged in between not-pissing-off-Trump and getting framed as Trump-lite by the Dems.
Gori the Grey
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Oh, yeah. We could see utter chaos.
GoodEnoughForMe
n.m.s.s.
Look if we just crowdfund a big pot of money that we use to hire handlers to convince Trump to run as an independent, Biden wins Alabama.
It will be interesting to how court cases might interfere with his campaigning. Could GA initiate a "perp walk"?
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Trump would absolutely sabotage DeSantis' campaign if he feels humiliated. The best case scenario is he starts the MAGA party and encourages followers to run against Republicans down ballot too. The worst case scenario is he's far gone he just kind of slumps away and leaves DeSantis be.
Gori the Grey
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I guess he said at CPAC this weekend that an indictment wouldn't stop him from campaigning. Can't speak to an arrest. Conviction. Imprisonment.
More than a perp walk, per se, I'd like to see a cop bang his head into the frame of a car as that cop pushes him into the back seat. Won't play out that way, I know. But a feller can dream, can't he?
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Gori the Grey
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cut out the middlemen. Get enough money together and go strait to Trump with the proposal.
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I'm not sure what 3 or more parties in the US can do that 2 cannot. The dividing lines between Democrats and Republicans seem clear enough to anyone on any one issue we can mention. In fact it could be argued that their advantage is that their distinctions are so clear.
So I just don't know what you mean that multi-party systems have a better record. Record of what, exactly?
