so you tell me what's going to happen next, what will evolve next if it isn't random
hm, seems an introductory level course to statistics is in order...... Evolution is not random, therefore it is indeed theoretically possible to predict what traits will evolve in a given species. Or which species will split into two or more, and due to what changes. However, there is that small problem of percentage of required data known, i.e. for any given situation we can probably not even know 0.01% of the data. We'd need to know the exact DNA sequence and epigenetics of each and every member of the species, the exact nature of interaction between radiation, biochemical reactions within all germ cell and all other (often random) factors influencing mutations in all of the animals, all (indeed partly random) outside influences (who gets hit by a car? Caught by a predator?) etc.
Now, I say 'random' all the time - why is evolution NOT random?
That's because variation is caused by mostly random processes, but selection to a large part is not random. And evolution is (I'll us ea simple definition here) 'change in a population over time through variation and selection'.
Selection is (mostly) not random!
So we can not (due to practical, not principal) reasons predict individual mutations (same reason weather forecasts for more than 12h are so bad).
get it?
guessing numvers is quite a bit simpler than forming life, I'm afraid.... and saying that life started trillions of times seperately seems rather absurd to me
Why?
Think it through..... earth is huge, so there is an awful lot of room. We can hypothesize that the conditions required to 'start life' are extremely special, but that is baseless speculation. Much more probably life came into existence (btw, how do you define life in the first place? perhaps we are talking about different things here.....) in conditions that were potentially very special on a global scale, but not on a local scale. Let's assume that it i mid-ocean ridge volcanism (hot smokers) that plays a role. These conditions can only be found on active mid-ocean ridges, and thus are extremely rare on earth - the surface that we see, that is. But if you check a map of the ocean floor you will see that there are quite a lot of square limes of mid-ocean ridges. Same is true for all the past when there were oceans. And one single cell is tiny, tiny, tiny. So
if conditions were right on them, then they were right in an HUGE area. Why should life only come into existence once? (and even if, that's all we need

).
Same goes for freshwater puddles, or whatever other scenario you take.
It seems to me that you are befuddled by some things that are indeed at first glance 'weird'. So am I - simply because 90% of all our experience of how things (and life) work(s) are WRONG when talking about abiogenesis. 'harsh conditions'? Not so - life obviously developed where the conditions were (locally) NOT harsh! 'A LOT of unlikely circumstances'? Not so - at least not the conclusion you draw from them. We tend to think in terms of 1 draw, ten draws, a million draws when thinking about lottery chances. Can you really grasp the concept of 'one in a Million'? I can't! And for abiogenesis to 'work', the odds are really really tiny, but the 'draws' are, well, trillions of trillions! Just think of all that TIME thatw as available, all that SPACE! It needs only work once - and BINGO, there's life! Who's going to kill it? There's nothing there to kill it.... once life is present, it will spread out like crazy. THEN evolution starts, and quite quickly conditions become brutal. The 'second' life faces stiff competition from the already existing 'first' life, and so on. But No. 1 was home free.
Another thing you repeatedly do: 'something comes from nothing' (paraphrasing here). You use a concept of 'life' that is based on life as we encounter it every day. An inherent argument from irreducible complexity. A 'something', you imply, is so much more complex from a 'nothing' that you can't get there from here. But 'first life' is just marginally different from its source! It is not like life suddenly erupted as a full blown
Volvox from sea water and lightning. That's why I am asking for your definition of 'life'.