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Global Warming 'very likely' human made

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by QuoVadisNation, Feb 1, 2007.

  1. skadistic

    skadistic Caomhanach

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    So exactly what percent of this global warming is man "very likely" but not definitely responsible for?
     
  2. Urederra

    Urederra Mostly harmless

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    And that would be autoritarian and against the beliefs and the freedom of the ones who think that the computational models the scientifics at the IPCC are using are faulty. (meh... they admit that)
    Best question so far... I have raised that question lots of times. And I am still waiting for an answer.
     
  3. skadistic

    skadistic Caomhanach

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    I raise it in every doom and gloom global warming thread on every forum I post on and have yet to get a straight answer. I don't think I ever wil.
     
  4. tomsnowman123

    tomsnowman123 Simple Liver

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    "...it is at least 90% certain that human emissions of greenhouse gases rather than natural variations are warming the planet's surface. "

    They're saying not natural variations but humans.
     
  5. skadistic

    skadistic Caomhanach

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    If, maybe, almost certain, possibly, could be,


    Those are not exact.
     
  6. Urederra

    Urederra Mostly harmless

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    And not what you asked.
     
  7. History_Buff

    History_Buff Knight of Cydonia

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    100% or 0%. You can't say that if you count out this this and this, the earth would only get x degrees warmer, instead of the x+n we're expecting to see.

    What the result says is that the Earth is getting warmer. We are 90% sure it is our fault. (and don't quote me on it, since I haven't read the paper, but that seems to mean that we are 90% sure it is 100% our fault.)
     
  8. BasketCase

    BasketCase Username sez it all

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    Sure you can. If humans didn't exist, the temperature of the planet would be X. Instead, it's X + N. Humans are responsible for N.

    What is N? The question is entirely legitimate.
     
  9. Enkidu Warrior

    Enkidu Warrior Ultramagnetic

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  10. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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    I don't think you understand the basic issue with predicting or modelling a chaotic system. Totally accurate prediction is impossible, however a model of a chaotic system can predict the overall behaviour trends extremely well.
     
  11. bigfatron

    bigfatron Emperor

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    Exactly what proportion of inflation in the US economy would be caused by inflating the money supply by a few percent over night and giving every citizen a million dollars to spend?

    Can't tell me, huh? So clearly expanding the money supply is a fine and dandy thing to do, and gimme my million NOW.

    Why don't we print ecxess money, encourage smoking, allow asthma inducing pollution, etc etc? Because, while we cannot point to the EXACT impact of a precise amount of each of these things, we can demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt that they are significantly harmful and it is therefore stupid to permit/encourage them.

    Stop asking for a standard of proof that you do not require in any other field - it's pointless. Alternatively explain why we require a standard of proof for this field that is beyond that you require in any other - in other words, what is so special about climate change that you find so personally threatening?

    All the best
    BFR
     
  12. GinandTonic

    GinandTonic Saphire w/ Schweps + Lime

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    If I shoot a guy dead, how many years have I reduced his life by exactly? If the police cannot give me an exact figure, then how do they know I have reduced his life at all? He could have had a hart attack a second after I shot him.

    If this is a valid defence, how come all the fellas in their silly wigs havnt hit on it yet?
     
  13. History_Buff

    History_Buff Knight of Cydonia

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    Sure it's a valid question. But it's like Heisenberg uncertainty, because there is no real way to determine N. Simply by existing, we have altered the way the system works. Finding N is solving for an irrelevant figure, all you need to know is whether it is zero or non-zero.
     
  14. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Given that there seems to be a 'buffer' of CO2 pollution that we can get away with, we're left with the problem of how to distribute this buffer. Since economies are tied to CO2 output, it's tough to convince someone to reduce their CO2 output.
     
  15. History_Buff

    History_Buff Knight of Cydonia

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    Personally I like the per capita solution, for it's pure simplicity.
     
  16. Tank_Guy#3

    Tank_Guy#3 Lion of Lehistan

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    "Global Warming "very likely" human made"

    Tank Guy#3 to Scientists: Tell me something I don't know.

    Though I'm really wondering whether or not global warming is taking place. Outside the temperature (with the windchill) is -20 degrees (F).
     
  17. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Remember that "Global Warming" is a misnomer, much like "Big Bang". The better term is "Climate Change"

    I don't. Mainly because humans are not an 'asset' in this equation. Usually when we start trading a good, it's based on some type of asset that we already own.

    This is why I think that 'biomass under influence' is the best place to start. Brazil has the potential to buffer more CO2 than Japan, because Brazil has more biomass available. In a 'fair' world, Brazil would only produce as much CO2 as it can reasonably buffer on its own. Same with Japan. Of course, I think that Brazil can underproduce CO2 and sell the 'right' to Japan to use Brazil's excess.

    Still convincing (say) Japan to reduce its output of CO2 because Canada is suffering side-effects from the CO2 excess is really tough to do. If Canada reduces its CO2 output to below its 'fair' share, everyone else is tempted to merely take advantage of the 'buffer room'.

    The only real solution is trade treaties and use of embargoes/tariffs to coerce joining a coalition (as far as I can tell).
     
  18. History_Buff

    History_Buff Knight of Cydonia

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    Hmm, I must say, I like your biomass system better.

    But yeah, convincing countries with a low CO2 buffer to along will be tough.
     
  19. Bill3000

    Bill3000 OOOH NOOOOOOO! Supporter

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    You cannot predict whether or not global warming occurs through such a matter like this - weather is a chaotic system. What matters is the average temperature and effects.
     
  20. Masquerouge

    Masquerouge Deity

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    Could some of the naysayers please explain to me why, on subjects where I have no expertise, I should not trust the experts?
    In the case of global warming, if I should not trust the global warming scientists and the scientific community when they say that global warming is our fault, then who should I believe?
    Who has more authority on global warming than the scientific community?
     

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