Why is it that France (which had a much smaller navy than Germany) had the ability to threaten Britain's colonies and Germany could not develop such a power? Could the German's never "win" the naval race, that is create an even bigger fleet than historically (say add in Hollman's cruisers to Tirpitz's Battleships) to deter the British? Even if that were not enough on its own, would it, paired with say a Russo-German alliance (or "detente" even) be enough to tilt the scales?
France had the ability to threaten Britain's colonies on land more than by sea. Strong French army detachments were posted in Algeria, West Africa, and Indochina that could have caused trouble that the British could not easily counter. The Germans had no such ground forces in their colonies and no real means to support them, and their colonies were often far from places where they would threaten the British anyway. In addition, while the French navy was smaller than that of the Germans, the French did possess the means to engage in cruiser warfare worldwide against British trade from their network of relatively developed naval bases. The Germans, by comparison, did not configure their fleet to fight a cruiser war from their colonies; they mostly designed their fleet to fight in the North Sea. It wouldn't have made any sense for them to do anything else, because without access through the North Sea, Germany could not easily support a global cruiser force or colonial war.
Besides, it's difficult to imagine the Germans investing more than they already did in a fleet that would have had no purpose other than to...try to ally with Britain? The logic doesn't really track. It would be pretty hard to sell the
Reichstag and naval public opinion on the notion of spending a zillion
Mark on ships that would be expressly there
not to be used. And some sort of Russo-German agreement might have lent some weight to Germany's potential usefulness to the British, but in that sort of situation it would've made a lot more sense for the British to just deal directly with the Russians.
From what I remember reading from The Sleepwalkers was that Edward VII was a complete Germanophobe and was responsible for placing the anti-German bloc in key positions in the Foreign Office.
Yeah, Edward sponsored the likes of Francis Bertie and Eyre Crowe. I don't think I'd go so far as to say he was "responsible" for their power and influence, but his support helped them a lot.
How important was it that Buelow withdrew his support for the treaty after Wilhelm changed it? Also, how important was it that the Reinsurance Treaty was not renewed by Germany? Had Bismarck been around a few more months and the treaty renewed, how long would it have lasted? What are some "butterflies" that would've resulted? Britain drawing closer to the Germany?
Bülow's threatened resignation was about an issue that, while it had meaning, didn't necessarily sink the concept of negotiation with Russia. The Russian cabinet, however, objected to the mere idea of a meaningful deal with Germany. Lamzdorf and the other ministers were the real obstacle to an agreement.
There are a lot of historians who think that the Reinsurance Treaty's non-renewal was a humongous deal. Clark refers to it as the single most important foreign policy decision of Wilhelm's reign. I don't really agree. Russia was not a close ally of Germany in 1890. The Reinsurance Treaty did not suddenly resolve the tension that the Eastern Rumelian crisis caused between the two governments. Instead, it made
immediate Russian intervention in a Franco-German war
less likely, and that was about it. Herbert von Bismarck said that the treaty pretty much just bought Germany six weeks in the event of war. Those six weeks were a very meaningful advantage, but they did not constitute a close relationship. Effectively, the treaty was the result of Bismarck attempting to paper over the gaping cracks in the Russo-German relationship that were opening during the reign of Aleksandr III and it did not have much chance of surviving for very long. He himself helped to destroy the treaty's chances of renewal in 1890 during the maneuvering that led to his ouster.
On the other hand, Russo-French capital flows were increasing and positive diplomatic contact between the two countries was improving. Bismarck actually helped that process along, too, with his
Lombardverbot restrictions on German capital flows to Russia, but he didn't cause it. There were long-term causes to the French alignment that had little to do with German policy. With that said: was failing to renew the treaty a poor decision? Absolutely. It was made on questionable grounds and had a lot more to do with the internal politics of Germany's ruling officials than it did with sensible diplomacy. Would it have suddenly made Russo-German relations perfectly fine? Eh, probably not. The Russian foreign minister, N. K. Girs, was under serious pressure to abandon the deal as well. He wanted to sign the Reinsurance Treaty again in 1890 largely as a form of covering his back against his political enemies in the Russian cabinet. This does not speak strongly for the durability of such a treaty.
By 1905 a lot of the considerations that made the Russo-German power relationship so fraught had changed. The shock of the Manchurian War and France's courting of Russia's antagonist Britain helped push the tsar closer to Germany, while the Russo-Austrian antagonism that had made the Reinsurance Treaty necessary in the first place had significantly abated since the 1897 agreement to keep the Balkans "on ice". And yet agreement still wasn't possible, at least not without an additional push of some kind. I just don't know.
So yeah, I personally don't think that the Reinsurance Treaty was enough of a big deal to be The Thing that set Russia on the road to war with Germany. (Hell, there probably was no such thing.) But there are plenty of very intelligent historians who do, and on reasonably good grounds. If your intention is to write alternate history, like your comment about butterflies implies, you could do worse than the Reinsurance Treaty.
Have you read The Lost History of 1914 by Jack Beatty? Great book concerning counterfactual scenarios where WWI doesn't occur in the way it did, or at all.
I have not. Thank you for the recommendation.
What was the correct policy for Germany re Britain then? Was conciliation the best course as Bethmann pursued? Or would an actual militaristic, aggressive policy by Germany been enough to deter Britain? Or would it drive her closer to the Entente? In addition to protecting the colonies, Clark points out in The Sleepwalkers that British perception of German weakness and vast overestimation of Russian strength is what drove Britain to a policy of appeasement with Russia and antagonism with Germany. Had Germany, for example, vastly expanded her army (say much larger than what the Reichstag would realistically approve) and aggressively supported Austria in all matters, have forced Britain to appease Germany as well? This is very confusing because Britain almost didn't intervene historically, but the Liberal Imperialists narrowly won out in the end. Had Grey been forced to resign in 1913 like he almost did, it is hard to imagine Britain intervening.
I genuinely don't know. These are deep waters, and it's difficult enough to try to diagnose the causes of what
actually happened without trying to lay out overall policy recommendations.
It's much the harder to do this for polycratic Germany because of the fact that it's almost impossible to detect
any coherent policy in the Wilhelmine leadership for any length of time.