Global warming: Kenyan tribes battle over what's left of water
Kenyan tribes fight for what's left of the water
By Edmund Sanders Tribune Newspapers
November 29, 2009
ISIOLO, Kenya — - Have the climate wars of Africa begun?
Tales of conflict emerging from this remote, arid region of Kenya have disturbing echoes of the lethal building blocks that turned Darfur into a killing ground in western Sudan.
Tribes that lived side by side for decades say they have been pushed to warfare by competition for disappearing water and pasture. The government is accused of exacerbating tensions by taking sides and arming combatants who once used spears and arrows.
The aim, all sides say, is no longer just to steal land or cattle, but to drive the enemy away forever.
It's a combustible mix of forces that the United Nations estimates has resulted in at least 400 deaths in northern Kenya this year.
Moreover, experts worry that it's just the beginning of a new era of climate-driven conflict in Africa.
"There is a lesson in Darfur," said Richard Odingo, vice chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global scientific body that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President Al Gore. "Every dry area has the potential to be a flash point if we are not careful."
Africa is no stranger to conflict: The continent has been rocked by war, ethnic hatred, post-colonial border disputes and competition for resources, including oil and diamonds. But
as the deserts encroach in Sudan, rainfall declines in the Horn of Africa -- a 15 percent decrease is predicted over the next few decades -- and fresh water evaporates in the south, climate change is transforming conflicts and kicking old tensions into overdrive.
"Climate change amplifies and escalates vulnerability," said Achim Steiner, director of the U.N. Environment Program. "It doesn't mean that conflict is inevitable, but it's much more likely."
Scientific and anecdotal evidence is mounting that the changes under way here are more than climatic variation. Droughts that once appeared every decade now hit every two or three years. Icecaps atop Mount Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro are evaporating.
But conflict is perhaps the most alarming symptom. Violence is becoming deadlier thanks to population growth and the proliferation of arms. Thirty years ago, a few dozen tribal warriors with spears might have clashed at a water hole. Today rural communities are armed with AK-47s, and even national armies are jumping into the fray.
In October, Kenyan soldiers clashed with Sudanese tribesmen conducting a cross-border cattle raid. This summer, the Ugandan military was accused of using attack helicopters against Kenyan herdsmen attempting to graze their stock in their country.
In Kenya, experts say, the violence has become as unpredictable as the weather. Faced with the extinction of their age-old livelihood because of what appear to be permanent changes in rainfall patterns, many of the 4 million Kenyans who survive by raising livestock are embroiled in a fight with one another and with herdsmen from nearby countries for the remaining viable land.
"The situation is getting out of hand, and people are starting to worry about where all this is headed," said Mohammed Ahmed, a field officer with the British aid group ActionAid in Isiolo, where scores of people have been killed in recent months.
The Kenyan government has largely ignored the brewing crisis, dismissing it as the usual tribal clashes. But the drought has pushed Kenya's cattle-raising tribes to the point where they feel they have nothing to lose, experts say.
"It's a recipe for a major disaster," said Choice Okoro, humanitarian affairs officer for the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. "We are seeing a militarization of their livelihood."
Okoro said it was a mistake to assume that tensions will abate if the drought ends. "It's different now, and it's alarming," she said. "It's not going back to normal anymore."
edsanders@tribune.com
Major changes
Temperature: Maximum readings in Kenya's Rift Valley have risen by more than 5 degrees in the last 20 to 40 years.
Water levels: Lake Chad has dropped by 90 percent since the 1960s.
Disease: Malaria is becoming more common in Kenya's central highlands.
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