How can we destroy climate change sceptics?

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Cold comfort: the psychology of climate denial

If the evidence is overwhelming that man-made climate change is already upon us and set to wreak planetary havoc, why do so many people refuse to believe it?

The UN's panel of climate scientists, in a landmark report, described the proof of global warming as "unequivocal".

That was two years ago, and since then hundreds of other studies have pointed to an ever-bleaker future, with a potential loss of life numbering in the tens of millions, if not more.

Yet survey after survey from around world reveals deep-seated doubt among the public.

A poll published in Britain on November 14, to cite but one example, found that only 41 per cent of respondents accepted as an established fact that human activity was largely responsible for current global warming.

The majority said the link was not proven, that green propaganda was to blame or the world was not heating up at all.

Last week, a private exchange of emails among climate scientists stoked a firestorm of scepticism after it was hacked and posted on the web.

The memos expressed frustration at the scientists' inability to explain what they described as a temporary slowdown in warming, and discussed ways to counter the campaigns of climate naysayers.

Experts see several explanations for the eagerness with which so many dismiss climate change as overblown or a hoax.

"There is the individual reluctance to give up our comfortable lifestyles - to travel less, consume less," said Anthony Grayling, a philosophy professor at the University of London and a bestselling author in Britain.

While deeply anchored in the West, this resistance also extends to emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil where a burgeoning middle class is only today tasting the fruits of a lifestyle they have waited so long and worked so hard to obtain.

For Tim Kasser, a professor of psychology at Knox University in Galesburg, Illinois, the reality of climate change impinges on core aspects of our identity.

"We are told a thousand times a day, notably through advertising, that the way to a happy, successful and meaningful life is through consumption," he said.

"But now scientists and environmentalists come along and say part of the problem is that we are consuming too much or in the wrong way."

Yet there may also be a darker explanation. It is the human instinct to shut out or modify a terrifying truth: that the world as we know it is heading for a smash.

"It's a paradox: when it comes to disasters, people do not allow themselves to believe what they know," explained Jean-Pierre Dupuy, a professor of social philosophy at the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris.

"Because everybody is in denial - or would like to be in denial - and would prefer to not shoulder too much of the responsibility for dealing with the problem, you have a kind of disconnect here," Grayling said.

Even scientists reluctantly pushed by their growing sense of alarm into launching public appeals for action have trouble coping.

When Clive Hamilton, a professor of public ethics at Australian National University, attended a September climate conference at Oxford tasked with imagining a world warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, he was struck by how researchers spoke among themselves.

"It was very revealing. As they relaxed somewhat, they began to speak about their fears, about losing sleep, not wanting to think about the implications of what they do," he recalled.

Under such circumstances, people are resourceful in finding ways to reassure themselves or turn their backs on the threat posed by climate change.

Some applaud their own environmental virtue: "Changing to compact fluorescent bulbs makes people feel good - 'I've done my bit for today,'" said Kasser, describing a common attitude in the United States.

"Blaming China and India is another great psychological defence mechanism."

A more sophisticated variant is to conclude, with a sigh of resignation. that individual action isn't enough.

"Even if all of us were at our most maximally green, it probably wouldn't make much more than about a 0.5 per cent difference," said Grayling in characterising this mentality.

At some point, however, reality may bite.

Hamilton, who is running for Parliament in Australia, said more and more people he meets are having what he calls an "Oh :):):):)!" moment.

"It's that moment when you really get it, when you understand not just intellectually but emotionally that climate change is really happening. I think we will see a rush of that over the next couple of years," he said.

It may take one or more terrible shocks - national bankruptcies, a major environmental disaster in a vulnerable country like Bangladesh - for that to happen, said Grayling.

Once it does, "it will be impossible to look back over your shoulder and think, 'it's not true,' or 'there will be a scientific fix, it will all go away'."

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/c...ychology-of-climate-denial-20091202-k5r8.html
 
Not so much. It's equivocating between "skeptics" and "people who dismiss climate change as a hoax" on the other. Do you endorse this?

The article is also somewhat out of date; repeating "hundreds of studies" and "the science is settled" and "consensus" was a lot more convincing before the East Anglia CRU emails leaked out with contents like the infamous "Kevin and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is !". I ask again, since you didn't answer my question: What is it about climate change that doesn't want to stand up to skepticism? Why must skeptics be lumped in with deniers? Why the polarization?
 
I think it's because people stereotype, Erik. There are a LOT of people who're best described as 'deniers'. They're loud, they don't understand the science, their objections are juvenile, and they were fed by astroturf.

Skeptics are obviously fine. These are people who want to look at the data to see if the statistics are done properly. They're people who want to suggest other mechanisms to account for certain changes (and, as I've said elsewhere, the more viable mechanisms to explain variance, the better), etc. Unfortunately, there are so many deniers (hostile ones at that) that skeptics do risk being drowned out. Filtering good skepticism from bad ones isn't easy. All partisans should remember that there's some value in policing their 'team', when members of their team are seriously in error.

I continue to feel that consensus is extremely strong, much stronger than laypeople realise. There are many, many datasets & proxies for warming than there are institutions that are suspected to be corrupt. Re-vetting these suspect institutions will take a long time, because (at best) the researchers would have to walk a few peers through all of their data. That would take a long time, even after such an effort is organised.
 
Consensus about there being warming for one. Consensus that some of the warming is due to AGW effects. I know you can find editorials stating a controversy, but I follow primary scientific literature at a level that most people don't. Unless there's conspiracy between competing journals, consensus continues to be strong.

Your editorial offers no links, no references, nothing I can verify. In fact, your editorial didn't even require peer review. It's a guy writing his opinion. Yes, he brings up good points. He also brings up some poor points.

His good point is one that ainwood keyed me into about a year ago: we don't know what's going to happen with the clouds. Many of the models try to guess at cloud behaviour, but testing these models hasn't happened to anyone's satisfaction. Early indicators are that clouds over the oceans might lead to positive feedback (though it's unlikely that all cloud feedback will be positive). ..... but then the article goes on to poo-poo the idea that water vapour is a positive feedback ..... and that's just silly. He just hand-waves it away. He's wrong to do so at a theoretical level, and he's wrong to do such an injustice to laypeople in an editorial.

The main disruptions from climate change are from the risk of tipping points. Politicians are going to show the same, or less, foresight, insight, & intelligence for mitigating harm after a tipping point that they showed during the economic crisis.
 
This thread is particularly ironic given the hidden data that the hacker uncovered. You know, the part where the "inconvenient truth" that detracted from the (formerly global warming until that didn't apply) climate change agenda was simply ignored.

Too funny.
 
I didn't really care either way, but I have to say I'm finding Climategate hilarious.
 
damn global warming crowd nearly ruined Civ IV with their nonsense. I swear its ridiculous what they did to the game, I'm getting 1-2 global warming hits a turn sometimes and its never for the better. Like global warming never improves climate anywhere? :lol: Damn near ruined a great history game with BS speculations about future climates. Strange for a game that comes with ice age scenarios and how climate improved dramatically with "global warming" back then.

as for AGW, with all the stuff we pump into the atmosphere I'd expect some warming. Depends on how dirty it is, cleaner pollution wont block out as much sunshine. But I'm hoping for it... An ice age world cannot support enough people.
 
damn global warming crowd nearly ruined Civ IV with their nonsense. I swear its ridiculous what they did to the game, I'm getting 1-2 global warming hits a turn sometimes and its never for the better.

Bah, you're complaining because of that? I once had the whole planet explode on me because I played around with a few nukes. Civ4 is full of surprises. :p
 
One can bet...

Two climate change sceptics, who believe the dangers of global warming are overstated, have put their money where their mouth is and bet $10,000 that the planet will cool over the next decade.

The Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev have agreed the wager with a British climate expert, James Annan.

The pair, based in Irkutsk, at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, believe that global temperatures are driven more by changes in the sun's activity than by the emission of greenhouse gases. They say the Earth warms and cools in response to changes in the number and size of sunspots. Most mainstream scientists dismiss the idea, but as the sun is expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades the Russian duo are confident they will see a drop in global temperatures.

Dr Annan, who works on the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer, in Yokohama, said: "There isn't much money in climate science and I'm still looking for that gold watch at retirement. A pay-off would be a nice top-up to my pension."

To decide who wins the bet, the scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a US climate centre between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/aug/19/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment
 
the last 40 years followed a cool period from 1940-70

climate change toward a warmer world will accommodate a larger population. Ice age like conditions will kill millions and promote war between peoples armed with more than spears.

Jesus, where's most of the land? Its in a climate zone that will benefit from "global warming".

And where are most of the people? In areas that will suffer from global warming.
 
I continue to feel that consensus is extremely strong, much stronger than laypeople realise.
Yup!:goodjob:
It's like the right now much maligned IPCC.:scan:

It operates along the lines where science is generally a voluntary network undertaking — i.e. the network decides who's got some valuable input to make and is worth talking to. There are literally thousands of researchers involved, and what they eventually publish are the least common denominator they can all agree on. I.e. it's anything but the alarmist extremist fringe interpretation of the collective data; it's more like the most conservative estimate of probabilities by the unanimous group.

Then of course, and I've heard this from IPCC people, it helps that the gradual alarmist progression of their reports have perfectly fit into the dramaturgical expectations of the media reporting on it. (I.e.: "Will the new report confirm the issues raised in the last? And here it comes; why yes it does! Off the the presses!"). Up until the present curious situation of global warming potentially slowing down at mo, every new long expected utterance by the IPCC aligned perfectly with the news-cycle needs. The problem here is also that the reliability of the media is already rather compromised — and I'd say the US is a case in point. Of course creedence being given to reporting on science shouldn't be expected if the news media isn't regarded as particularly reliable on general stuff by the public. The problem then of course becomes that the public has no reliable channels of information. Instead, as expected, we get rumours and conspiracy theories.

But still, if scientific research has any value to us at all, or one has some other model one prefers, we're still stuck with science operating in such a way that it lets the researchers decide who is worth his salt, and should be listened to, as a function of professional competence. That always means excluding those who they collectively consider too scientifically weak to be interesting. It's a major, necessary, function.

If certain skeptics feel left out, they are free to form their own network. Except they are few, very diverse, and hugely varying in perceived competence by their colleagues, meaning the ambitious ones among them likely simply don't want to associate, since they still want collegial endorsement of the non-sceptics regarded as the good scientists, never mind the disagreement over global warming.

Muddying the waters is also helped by the fact that global warming is one of the rather new initiatives since about the 1960's, when researchers have taken it upon themselves to warn about potentially global deleterious effects that they cannot yet conclusively prove, but find the potential risks of what they are looking so troubling they actually felt compelled to put it out there in public.

We could go back to the old ways of course, when the idea was to not tell the public nuffin, until there was 100% incontrovertible proof of the matter (well, or as near as it gets in the after all imperfect world of scientific research). At which point of course, if global warming is the real deal, it would be too late anyway, which would constitute a small personal problem for the people doing this kind of research apparently.
 
Now this is a denier:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8393449.stm

Saudi Arabia's chief climate negotiator, Mohammad Al-Sabban said that the CRU e-mail issue will have a "huge impact" on next week's UN climate summit.

Mr Al-Sabban made clear that he expects it to derail the single biggest objective of the summit - to agree limitations on greenhouse gas emissions.

"It appears from the details of the scandal that there is no relationship whatsoever between human activities and climate change," he told BBC News.

Full article

:lol:
 
we can regulate sea levels easier than climate

Yeah, I guess we could build another Great Wall around... hmm... millions of miles of coastline. Stone is a renewable resource! [party]

/satire
 
Yeah, I guess we could build another Great Wall around... hmm... millions of miles of coastline. Stone is a renewable resource! [party]

/satire

gee, when I need to move water I pump it out of the way - start pumping ocean water into basins and deserts and we'll reduce the flooding of coastal areas and change the climates of arid regions for the better. An inland sea in the Sahara might even reduce the the strength of the Atlantic hurricane season. And if we choose to pump water entering the N Atlantic we can moderate "damage" to the conveyor system. :goodjob:
 
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